“突然间，夏天变成了秋天……”——今年的国会确实也“陷入了秋天”的状态。多年来，国会每次面临政府停摆的威胁时都会陷入一片混乱；但今年却例外——政府资金问题早在9月底（联邦财政年度结束之前）就得到了解决。因此，秋天的国会并没有像往常那样令人不快。此时，人们正享用着香甜的苹果派、香料丰富的南瓜拿铁，欣赏着金黄色的树叶。
"And all at once, summer collapsed into fall…" – Oscar Wilde Congress certainly collapsed into fall this year. It lacked the usual mayhem of an imminent government shutdown for the first time in years. The government is usually only funded through September 30, the end of the federal fiscal year. Lawmakers solved that fiscal riddle early. So the beginning of fall in Congress is usually anything but enjoyable. Others are devouring cobbler, enjoying spiced pumpkin lattes and viewing leaves of amber.
然而，当政府停摆的阴影笼罩在国会山时，政治上的紧张气氛会与城市中的炎热空气、以及空气中弥漫的草木气息交织在一起，形成一种独特的“秋日氛围”。这正是国会每年在面临停摆危机时的典型景象。但今年有所不同：特朗普签署了政府拨款法案，避免了政府停摆的发生。考虑到去年长达43天的政府停摆（从10月1日持续到11月中旬），这一结果实在令人欣慰——所有政府机构的资金都得到了保障，至少可以维持到12月11日。
When a government shutdown looms, the infernality of summer continues to stew on Capitol Hill. Imagine simmering political temperatures mixed with boiling urban concrete and a soupçon of petrichor. That epitomizes the customary fall tension in the halls of Congress when lawmakers are on the precipice of a shutdown. But this year is different. TRUMP SIGNS GOVERNMENT FUNDING BILL, AVOIDING A SHUTDOWN AHEAD OF MIDTERMS No shutdown. That’s a good thing, considering last year’s 43-day shutdown odyssey which crawled from October 1 into mid November. Everything is funded through December 11.
因此，议员们和记者们至少还能享受一下秋天的美好时光。不过，我们仍不知道12月中旬的新一轮预算谈判会带来什么结果。议员们还在从去年秋天的政治冲突中恢复过来；随着中期选举的临近，没有人希望再次陷入类似的纷争。各方都愿意在选举之后再就预算问题进行讨论。但这是否意味着12月还会发生政府停摆呢？
So at least members and journalists can enjoy some of those autumnal fall trappings and dash to the pumpkin patch. That’s because we don’t know what’s going to await everyone for the next spending round in mid-December. Lawmakers are recovering from the battle scars of last fall. So with the midterms approaching, no one wanted to return to the 2025 contretemps. The sides are willing to tussle over spending. But only after the midterms. Does that mean a shutdown in December?
目前还不清楚。如果民主党控制了众议院或参议院（甚至两者皆得），他们可能会迫使共和党人立即按照自己的要求为政府提供资金，直到2027年秋季为止。毕竟，他们肯定不希望再看到那种将问题拖延到明年年初的临时性拨款方案——因为到那时，民主党可能已经掌握了政权。
Unclear. If Democrats seize control of the House or Senate — or both — that could compel House and Senate Republicans to fund the government the way they want through the fall of 2027 right away. They won’t want an interim spending bill which punts things into early next year when Democrats may have power.
也就是说，如果民主党控制了众议院或参议院，他们将会认为选民已经做出了决定，因此他们有责任决定明年如何使用纳税人的钱。在这种情况下，民主党会推动通过一项临时性的法案，并希望在2027年初与特朗普总统发生冲突。唯一可以确定的是，特朗普总统在1月份时仍然会继续执政。这种局面很可能会导致政府在明年（甚至可能是12月）陷入停摆状态。
That said, if Democrats capture either the House or Senate, they will argue that the voters have spoken and it’s incumbent on them to decide how to spend taxpayer money next year. Under those scenarios, Democrats will push for a stopgap bill, hoping to tangle with President Trump in the early days of 2027. The only thing which is known is that President Trump will in fact still be in office come January. This scenario could spark a shut down next year – if not December.
原因是什么呢？在美国参议院中，通过任何支出法案都需要60票的支持（可能还需要额外的两票）。这意味着共和党人无法强行通过他们想要的支出方案。虽然在众议院中他们或许能够做到这一点，但他们也可能试图试探缅因州民主党议员贾里德·戈尔登（Jared Golden）和华盛顿州民主党议员玛丽·格卢森坎普·佩雷斯（Marie Gluesenkamp Perez）是否愿意违背党派立场，协助通过共和党支持的支出法案。
The reason? You still need 60 votes to clear a filibuster (and probably two) in the U.S. Senate. That means Republicans just can’t ram through whatever spending package they want. That may work in the House. And the GOP could even test the willingness of Reps. Jared Golden, D-Maine, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., to buck their party and assist passing a GOP-favored spending measure in the lame duck. FETTERMAN STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE FILIBUSTER AS TRUMP URGES SENATE REPUBLICANS TO SCRAP IT But in the Senate, Republicans will certainly need the cooperation of at least seven Democrats to help them hit the 60 vote threshold.
费特曼（Fetterman）强烈支持这种“阻挠议事程序”（即 filibuster），而特朗普则敦促参议院的共和党人放弃这一做法。然而在参议院中，共和党人至少需要7名民主党人的合作才能达到60票的门槛。这些民主党人只有在认为自己能够掌控明年的联邦支出计划时，才会愿意提供支持。这个问题在2025年的政府停摆期间也曾出现过：当时众议院通过了一项党派性的支出法案，以暂时续签所有现有的资金安排，但参议院的共和党人始终无法突破阻挠议事程序的阻碍，导致该法案未能通过。
Those Democrats won’t be anxious to assist unless they won the majority and think they can apply their stamp on federal spending in the first quarter of next year. This is the same problem which vexed the Senate during the shutdown of 2025. The House passed a partisan spending bill to re-up all current funding on an interim basis. But Senate Republicans could never break a filibuster to lug that spending package across the finish line.
同样的情况也可能在12月再次发生。那么，第120届国会是否会在1月份以政府停摆的状态开始运作呢？这种情况以前确实发生过。事实上，在2018年的中期选举中，民主党在特朗普总统执政的第二年就控制了众议院；但特朗普总统以及当时的众议院议长保罗·瑞安（Paul Ryan，共和党人）拒绝接受参议院在圣诞节前通过的跨党派支出法案。
The same circumstances may be true in December. So could the 120th Congress begin in January with a shutdown? It’s happened before. In fact, under very similar circumstances. Democrats flipped control of the House during the 2018 midterms – two years into President Trump’s first term. But the President and outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., balked at a bipartisan spending package the Senate cleared just before Christmas that year.
政府因此关闭了（即政府停止了运作）。那些已经获得参议院批准的法案根本无法得到实施。于是，第116届国会是在政府停摆的状态下开始的，这次政府停摆持续了创纪录的35天。坦率地说，这种因支出争议而导致的政府停摆，其实反映了如果选民改变了国会中任何一个或两个机构的构成，未来可能会发生的情况。民主党人对共和党和总统提出的支出计划感到非常不满。
So the government closed. There was no way to resuscitate the Senate-approved package. So the 116th Congress began with a shutdown. It ran a then-record 35 days. A possible government shutdown over spending disputes frankly serves as a symptom for what could be ahead if voters flip either or both bodies of Congress. Democrats will convulse at spending plans made by Republicans and the President.
此外，在那些民主党占优势的选区，民主党很可能会在11月吸纳更多进步派人士和民主社会主义者加入他们的阵营。虽然这些左翼政治人物要到1月才能正式上任，但民主党众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries，来自纽约州）必须争取科罗拉多州的梅拉特·基罗斯（Melat Kiros）、纽约州的达里亚利扎·阿维拉·切瓦利埃（Darializa Avila Chevalier）和克莱尔·瓦尔德兹（Claire Valdez）等候选人的支持，才能赢得众议院议长的职位。
Plus, House Democrats likely add several progressives and Democratic Socialists to their ranks in November in solidly blue districts. Granted, those left-wing politicians won’t take office until January. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., must court the support of candidates Melat Kiros in Colorado along with Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York to win the Speaker’s gavel.
如果民主党在“跛脚鸭”（即任期即将结束的政府）期间犯任何错误，都可能引发党内激烈的内部冲突——尤其是在民主党可能在1月重新获得多数席位之后。共和党也可能面临自己的问题。
Any missteps by the Democratic brain trust in the lame duck could ignite an internecine firestorm – before Democrats potentially seize the majority in January. Republicans could face their own issues, too.
舒默（SCHUMER）在民主党中期选举的竞选活动中强调“可负担性”，同时却在破坏共和党为控制不断上涨的开支而提出的解决方案。一些共和党基层成员已经准备放弃现任众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson，来自路易斯安那州）。虽然据说只要特朗普总统愿意，约翰逊就能继续担任议长，但问题在于：如果共和党失去众议院的控制权，特朗普和其他共和党领导人是否会继续支持约翰逊担任少数党领袖？
SCHUMER PREACHES AFFORDABILITY IN DEM MIDTERM PITCH WHILE SABOTAGING GOP FIXES FOR SOARING COSTS Some rank-and-file Republicans are ready to move on from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). Granted, it is said that Johnson is Speaker as long as President Trump wants him in the job. But what’s not clear is what happens if Republicans lose control of the House. Will the President and others support Johnson for Minority Leader?
约翰逊本人是否愿意担任这个职位？现任众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（Steve Scalise，来自路易斯安那州）以及众议院少数党领袖汤姆·埃默（Tom Emmer，来自明尼苏达州）的命运又将如何？有迹象表明，众议院司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹（Jim Jordan，来自俄亥俄州）对领导职位感兴趣；尤其是如果共和党失去多数席位的话。
Does Johnson want that job? What happens to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Minority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.? There are signals that House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is interested in moving into leadership. Especially if the GOP loses the majority.
乔丹与特朗普总统关系密切。三年前，当共和党毫不留情地驱逐了前众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡（Kevin McCarthy，来自加利福尼亚州）时，乔丹也曾试图竞选议长，但未能成功。
Jordan is tight with President Trump. He lost a bid to become Speaker three years ago after Republicans unceremoniously ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
如果共和党失去多数席位，目前尚不清楚是否会有部分共和党人支持约翰逊竞选众议院共和党领袖的职位——无论特朗普总统怎么说。如果共和党在众议院选举中失利，一些众议院共和党人会指责特朗普总统；因为他们认为特朗普应对当前这种恶劣的政治氛围负责。目前还不清楚，当共和党失去执政地位后，是否会开始反对特朗普总统（尤其是考虑到经济问题、关税政策、汽油价格以及伊朗战争等因素）。
If Republicans lose the majority, it’s not clear that some Republicans will back Johnson for the top GOP job in the House – regardless of what President Trump says. Some House Republicans will blame the President if the party loses the House. Especially since they believe he’s responsible for the toxic political climate they face right now. It’s unknown if a Republican party out of power might begin pushing back against President Trump, frustrated by the economy, tariffs, the price of gasoline and the war in Iran.
到目前为止，大多数共和党人仍不愿与特朗普总统决裂。不过，如果选民在中期选举中让共和党在国会失去多数席位，这种情况可能会改变。至于参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer，民主党，来自纽约）的未来，我们还没有讨论这个问题；不过这位纽约民主党人坚称自己不会离职。不过，如果民主党未能在参议院取得多数席位，相关讨论就会浮出水面——因为进步派和年轻活动人士希望更换这位75岁的舒默。
Most GOPers have shown a reluctance to break with the President so far. But that could change if voters hand Congressional Republicans their head in the midterms. We haven’t even raised the question about the future of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. – although the New York Democrat insists he isn’t going anywhere. But questions would emerge if Democrats don’t flip the Senate, considering that progressives and younger activists want to move on from the 75-year-old Schumer.
参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune，共和党，来自南达科他州）的情况也是如此。特朗普总统与图恩之间的关系一直很紧张。如果共和党在参议院选举中失利，特朗普总统是否会以此为由要求罢免图恩呢？所有这些因素都将对支出法案的讨论产生影响，甚至可能影响到《外国情报监视法》（FISA）的续期问题，或者影响众议院在“跛脚鸭国会”期间（即总统任期结束前的国会时期）与参议院在大学体育相关法案上的协调。
The same with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. President Trump and Thune have never been close. If Republicans lose the Senate, would the President use that as a reason to call for the removal of the South Dakota Republican? All of this will color those question about spending bills, maybe renewing FISA – or even getting the House to sync up with the Senate on the college sports bill during the lame duck Congress. Summer collapsed into fall.
夏天已经过去，秋天悄然而至……不过，国会山的“秋季喧嚣”似乎被推迟了。去挑选一些南瓜吧，喝一杯肉桂香料拿铁，为万圣节活动做好准备吧——秋天其实已经来了，只是被推迟了而已。选举结束后，这种“秋季氛围”才会真正降临到国会山。
Capitol Hill was bereft of the usual autumnal mayhem. So go pick out some pumpkins. Sip a cinnamon spice latte. Prepare for trick or treating. Fall is here. only delayed. It will hit Capitol Hill after the election.