根据LSEG数据，第三季度全球并购活动总额达9930亿美元，较上一季度下降41%，这是自2025年第二季度以来首个跌破1万亿美元的季度。
Global M&A activity in the third quarter totalled $993 billion, down 41% compared to the prior quarter, marking the first quarter to fall below $1 trillion since the second quarter of 2025, according to LSEG data.
蒙特帕斯基银行对意大利BPM银行的320亿美元收购要约，以及Gold Fields对Northern Star Resources的257亿美元收购要约，位列第三季度宣布的10笔超100亿美元大额交易之中，这是自2024年第四季度以来单季度超大额交易数量最少的一次。
Banca Monte dei Paschi’s $32 billion bid for Banco BPM and Gold Fields’ $25.7 billion bid for Northern Star Resources were among the 10 deals over $10 billion announced in the third quarter, the lowest number of quarterly megadeals since the fourth quarter of 2024.
虽然人工智能和数据中心建设的繁荣提振了经济增长前景，但飙升的能源成本一直在推高通胀，并推高了市场对利率最终将企稳水平的预期。
While the boom in artificial intelligence and data centre building has lifted the outlook for economic growth, surging energy costs have been fanning inflation and pushing expectations higher about where interest rates will settle.
基准10年期美国国债收益率周四触及5.34%，为2002年以来最高水平，此前在截至9月的三个月里录得本世纪最大单季涨幅。
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level since 2002, after posting the biggest quarterly rise this century in the three months to September.
摩根士丹利全球并购主管John Collins表示：“在边际上，[收益率上升]有时会让估值变得稍微棘手一些。话虽如此，这种影响很难量化，所以我还不准备根据我们所看到的情况判断放缓。” 今年以来全球并购总额上升28%至3.9万亿美元，为2001年以来同期最高水平，而交易数量下降8%，降至2020年以来未见的水平。
“At the margins [higher yields] makes valuations sometimes a little tougher,” said John Collins, global head of M&A at Morgan Stanley. “That said, the impact is hard to quantify, so I’m not ready to call a slowdown based on what we are seeing.”So far this year worldwide M&A is up 28% to $3.9 trillion, the highest level in the period since 2001, while the number of deals fell 8%, levels not seen since 2020.
高盛欧洲、中东和非洲地区并购联席主管Carsten Woehrn表示：“企业仍在寻求规模，或进入其尚未涉足的市场和技术领域。”他认为，如果当前节奏持续，总交易额将超越2021年的峰值。
“Corporates are still looking for scale or access to markets and technologies they are not in,” said Carsten Woehrn, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of M&A in Europe, Middle East and Africa. He sees total deal value exceeding the 2021 peak if the pace continues.
“超大型交易仍在继续，自夏季以来我们看到了显著活动，”Woehrn表示。“董事会感到更大的紧迫性，要推动战略交易。” 科技领域的历史性投资水平推动了交易，今年以来这些公司的战略股权收购约占全球并购总额的四分之一。今年早些时候，Claude制造商Anthropic和ChatGPT制造商OpenAI均从投资者处筹集了数百亿美元资金。
“Megadeals are continuing and we’ve seen significant activity since the summer,” Woehrn said. “Boards feel a greater urgency to pull the trigger on strategic deals.”Historic levels of investment in the technology sector have bolstered deals, with strategic stake purchases in those companies accounting for about one quarter of global M&A so far this year. Earlier this year, both Claude maker Anthropic and ChatGPT maker OpenAI raised tens of billions of dollars from investors.
尽管美欧并购活动在过去三个月大幅下滑，但亚太地区并购总额达2420亿美元，较第二季度增长8%，较去年同期增长36%。
While US and European dealmaking fell sharply in the last three months, Asia Pacific M&A totalled $242 billion, up 8% from the second quarter and up 36% from the same period last year.
按价值计算，这是自1980年有记录以来全球私募股权支持的并购交易表现最强劲的年度，但第三季度与去年同期相比也出现了放缓。
This has been the strongest year to date for global private equity-backed dealmaking by value since records began in 1980, but the third quarter also saw a slowdown versus the same period last year.
“我们经历了一个非凡的第二季度。第三季度是常态化而非周期结束，”律所Clifford Chance全球企业业务主管Sarah Jones表示。“战略投资者仍在努力追求其目标。” 今年以来跨境并购仍是一个强劲主题，较去年同期增长32%。
“We had an extraordinary Q2. Q3 is a normalization rather than an end of a cycle,” said Sarah Jones, global head of corporate at law firm Clifford Chance. “Strategics are still working to pursue their goals.”Cross-border dealmaking remains a strong theme this year to date, up 32% on the same period last year.
“我们看到美国公司对收购欧洲企业表现出相当大的兴趣，这是首次利用强势美元的优势。反之，也有人考虑投资美国，以利用该国潜在的更高增长机遇，”摩根大通全球并购主管Charlie Bouckaert表示。
“We’re seeing a fair amount of appetite from US companies thinking about acquisitions in Europe for the first time, taking advantage of a strong dollar. In reverse, you’re seeing people considering investment in the U.S. to take advantage of the potentially higher growth opportunity in the country,” said Charlie Bouckaert, JPMorgan’s global head of M&A.
万亿美元IPO与并购交易 新上市，特别是科技领域的上市，推动了并购活动，为这些公司提供了收购竞争对手的新“货币”。SpaceX.O在其轰动一时的纳斯达克首秀后仅几天就收购了AI编程初创公司Cursor，其估值飙升至2万亿美元以上。
TRILLION-DOLLAR IPOs AND DEALMAKING New listings, particularly in the technology sector, have fuelled M&A giving the companies new currency to buy up rivals. SpaceX. Oacquired AI coding startup Cursor just days after its blockbuster Nasdaq debut, which saw its valuation surge to more than $2 trillion.
“推动活动的因素之一是，规模更大可能有助于公司更好地应对AI转型，”Collins表示。
“One of the drivers of activity is that being larger may help companies navigate transition in AI better,” Collins said.
埃隆·马斯克旗下SpaceX于6月的首次公开募股（IPO）推动了今年以来全球定价的首次公开募股（不含特殊目的收购公司SPAC）总额达到2150亿美元，为2021年以来的最高水平，尽管交易数量低于去年同期。
The June IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX helped drive $215 billion worth of initial public offerings, excluding SPACs, priced globally in the year to date, the highest level since 2021, from a lower number of deals than in the same period last year.
过去三个月，股票发行筹集了2840亿美元，较第二季度股权资本市场筹集的资金减少26%，但得益于SK海力士和英特尔的发行，较2025年第三季度增长39%。
In the last three months, stock sales raised $284 billion, 26% less than the proceeds raised across equity capital markets during the second quarter, though marking a 39% increase from the third quarter of 2025, thanks to offerings from SK Hynix and Intel.
部分银行家发出警示称，部分投资者在参与科技和人工智能相关交易时变得更加谨慎观望。
Some bankers did sound a note of caution that some investors were taking more of a pause when approaching some technology and AI-related deals.
“直到大约10天前，似乎没人担心中期选举，但随着柴油价格和利率上涨以及政治风向变化的风险，这正促使人们保持谨慎，”法国巴黎银行全球股权资本市场主管Andreas Bernstorff表示。
“Until about 10 days ago, no one seemed to worry about the midterms, but with rising diesel prices and rates and a risk of a change in political direction, it is prompting caution,” said Andreas Bernstorff, global head of equity capital markets at BNP Paribas.
近几周，由于利率上升和数据中心生态系统遭遇挫折，威胁到该行业的一系列新发行项目，一些IPO已被推迟。但即使面临前路未卜，银行家们依然信心十足。
In recent weeks, some IPOs have been delayed as higher interest rates and setbacks in the data centre ecosystem threaten to derail a slew of new issues from the sector. But even with the uncertainty ahead, bankers remain confident.
“强劲的长期趋势（如人工智能）正在推动活动开展，我们预计2027年将是另一个强劲之年，”摩根大通的Bouckaert表示。
“Strong secular trends (such as AI) are driving activity, and we expect 2027 to be another robust year,” JPMorgan’s Bouckaert said.