作者：Victor Swezey债券交易员们押注美联储即将进一步加息的势头非常强劲，以至于即使预期中的就业增长放缓，也不太可能显著改变这一前景。
By Victor Swezey Bond traders are betting so heavily that more interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are on the horizon that even the anticipated slowdown in job growth is unlikely to significantly alter the outlook.
据彭博社调查的经济学家预计，美国劳工部周五发布的就业报告将显示，9月份非农就业人数增加了约9万人，低于上个月的16.2万人。
The US Labor Department’s employment report on Friday is expected to show that payrolls expanded by about 90,000 in September, down from 162,000 the month before, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
然而，这一增幅大致与今年迄今的月度平均水平持平，表明就业市场持续强劲，这为美联储继续收紧货币政策留出了空间，因为美联储目前的重点是将过去五年一直高于目标的通胀率降下来。
Yet those gains would be roughly in line with the monthly average so far this year and point to continuing strength in the job market, giving the central bank room to keep tightening monetary policy as it focuses on bringing down inflation that’s been stuck over its target for the past five years.
普信集团（T. Rowe Price Group Inc.）投资级债券主管兼投资组合经理史蒂夫·布斯（Steve Boothe）表示：“你需要就业数据接近零甚至出现负增长——而且我认为工资数据确实需要出现令人失望的下行——国债市场才能上涨。劳动力市场成为市场反弹催化剂的门槛实际上非常高。”
“You would need something close to zero or even negative — and I think you’d really need a downside surprise in the wage data” — for Treasuries to gain, said Steve Boothe, head of investment grade and portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. “The bar for the labor market to be the catalyst for a rally here is actually pretty high.”
周四，美国债券市场的抛售有所缓解，原因是欧洲对债务负担加剧的担忧日益升温，促使投资者转向美国国债寻求避险，且两位美联储官员——米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）——暗示决策者在决定是否需要进一步加息前应多加考量。这使得两年期美债收益率下降了约10个基点，降至4.8%以下，并带动10年期美债收益率从24年来的高点回落。
The bond-market selloff eased in the US on Thursday as escalating worries about rising debt loads in Europe sent investors into Treasuries as a haven and two Fed officials — Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson — suggested policymakers should take more time before deciding whether additional hikes are needed. That sent two-year yields down by about 10 basis points to below 4.8% and dragged those on 10-year bonds back from a 24-year high.
但分析师表示，这种反弹与美国经济前景的改变或导致收益率走高的压力缓解几乎没有关系。油价徘徊在每桶100美元左右，且几乎没有迹象表明伊朗战争有结束的进展。联邦政府的大规模赤字支出和人工智能热潮正在为稳步扩张的经济火上浇油。此外，今年的通胀率已跃升至3%以上。
But analysts said the rebound had little to do with a change in the US outlook or an easing in the pressures that have been sending yields higher. Oil prices are hovering around $100 a barrel, with little signs of progress toward ending the Iran war. The federal government’s heavy deficit spending and the artificial intelligence boom are pouring fuel on a steadily expanding economy. And inflation this year has jumped above 3%.
尽管期货交易者已经略微减少了他们对利率上升的预期（并认为在12月的会议上之前不会再有进一步的利率调整），但他们仍预计到7月时利率至少会再上升0.75个百分点。
While futures traders have dialed back the scale of their rate-hike bets slightly — and don’t anticipate another move until the December meeting — they continue to expect at least three quarter-point increases by July.
然而，最近的抛售潮使得债券市场变得难以预测。周三美国通胀数据略低于预期，导致国债价格短暂上涨，但随后价格又回落，收益率再次攀升至几十年来的新高。分析师指出，由于市场普遍预期利率会继续上升，如果投资者调整其投资策略（例如减少对债券的持有量），就业数据出现负面意外（例如就业增长放缓），可能会进一步推动国债价格下跌。
The scope of the recent selloff, however, has made the bond market unpredictable. When US inflation data came in slightly softer than expected on Wednesday, Treasuries briefly rallied, only to erase the gains and send yields climbing back toward new multi-decade highs. With positioning increasingly tilted toward higher rates, analysts said there’s a possibility that a big downside surprise in employment data could extend Thursday’s rally if investors unwind some of their bets.
“如果出现市场认为表明劳动力市场出现早期问题的数据，我认为国债价格可能会出现较大幅度的上涨，而如果就业数据符合预期或略好，市场反而可能会继续抛售债券，”BMO Capital Markets的美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen表示。
“If we did get something that the market interpreted as a sign of early stress in the labor market, I think that we could disproportionately rally versus selling off on an as-expected or slightly firmer number,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
不过，市场对于抛售潮是否已经达到顶峰仍缺乏信心。Federated Hermes的固定收益策略师兼投资组合经理Karen Manna表示，自美联储9月16日加息以来，她的悲观情绪有所减弱，但她仍不确定收益率是否已经达到峰值。她指出：“关于利率会升至如此高水平的预期已经在很大程度上得到了验证；不过，利率仍有可能继续上升。”
Still, there’s little confidence that the selloff has crested. Karen Manna, a fixed-income strategist and portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said she has grown less bearish since the Fed’s rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting but is not yet convinced that yields have peaked. “A good amount of our thesis with rates pushing as high as they did has been realized,” Manna said. Still, she said, they “could continue to push higher.”