作者：横山百香软银集团的股票投资者并未理会这家日本公司借贷成本上升的担忧，而是将目光聚焦于其押注人工智能所带来的潜在回报。
By Momoka Yokoyama SoftBank Group Corp.’s equity investors are shrugging off worries about the Japanese company’s higher borrowing costs and focusing on potential returns from its bets on AI.
继OpenAI发布新款GPT-6 Astra模型，重新点燃了市场对孙正义向这家ChatGPT开发商投入650亿美元承诺的乐观情绪后，软银股价在9月份实现了四个月来的首次月度上涨。在四周内，该股累计上涨24%，这还得益于OpenAI最新计划以1.4万亿美元的估值筹集300亿美元资金。芯片部门Arm Holdings Plc股价的复苏，也增强了市场对这家科技投资公司偿还日益增长债务能力的信心。
SoftBank shares posted their first monthly gain in four months in September, after OpenAI’s new GPT-6 Astra model rekindled optimism around Masayoshi Son’s $65 billion commitment to the ChatGPT creator. The stock rose 24% in four weeks, helped by OpenAI’s latest plan to raise $30 billion at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. A recovery in chip unit Arm Holdings Plc shares also bolstered confidence about the tech investor’s ability to finance growing debt.
与此同时，由于市场对人工智能安全、成本飙升及竞争加剧的持续质疑，软银的信用违约掉期（CDS）已跃升至2023年以来的最高水平。软银CDS与股票走势之间的背离，与甲骨文公司（Oracle Corp.）股价的抛售形成了鲜明对比；甲骨文此前曾以不可抗力为由，试图规避数据中心支出激增带来的影响。
That’s as SoftBank’s credit default swaps jumped to the highest level since 2023 on persistent questions around AI safety and soaring costs and competition. The divergence between SoftBank’s CDS and equities contrasts with a selloff in shares of Oracle Corp., which has cited force majeure to shield itself from surging data center expenses.
香港桑福德伯恩斯坦公司（Sanford C Bernstein）董事总经理戴大卫（David Dai）在谈及对软银的看法时表示：“从股票投资者的角度来看，我们对他们筹集资金的具体技术细节关注较少。假设他们能够筹集到资金，那么股票层面的故事实际上非常精彩，因为他们拥有Arm，而Arm正是人工智能代理（agentic AI）兴起和服务器CPU使用量增加的最大受益者。”
“From the equity side, we care a little bit less about the technicality of how they raise money,” said David Dai, a managing director at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong, regarding his view on SoftBank. “Assuming they can raise money, the equity story is actually great because they have got Arm which is benefiting the most from the rise of agentic AI and server CPU usage.”
Arm及其他芯片制造商预测，到2030年，中央处理器的需求将达到数千亿美元。随着Meta Platforms Inc.的Muse等服务的用户越来越多地要求人工智能代理执行代码和使用网络浏览器，市场对通用计算的需求正在不断增长。戴大卫估计，该市场规模有望增长至3300亿美元。他表示，Arm的订单前景同样乐观。
Arm and other chipmakers are forecasting hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of demand for central processing units by 2030. Orders are rising for general-purpose computing as users of services like Meta Platforms Inc.’s Muse increasingly ask AI agents to execute code and use web browsers. Dai estimates the market could grow to as much as $330 billion. Arm’s order outlook is also positive, he said.
在从6月峰值近乎腰斩之后，Arm的股价正在收复失地：上个月上涨了约20%。这充实了软银的财务实力，也有助于缓解从信贷市场蔓延过来的一些担忧。软银持有这家芯片架构公司近90%的股份。Arm占软银资产价值的很大一部分。
After nearly halving from their June peak, Arm’s shares are regaining ground: They rose around 20% last month. That shores up the finances of SoftBank, which owns almost 90% of the chip architect, and helps ease some of the fears that’ve spilled over from credit markets. Arm accounts for a big chunk of SoftBank’s asset value.
除了Arm之外，孙正义在人工智能领域的多元化布局——从机器人、数据中心到能源——让一些股票投资者感到安心。虽然这位亿万富翁对OpenAI日益加大的押注仍令人担忧，但投资者从软银计划扩大其在其他人工智能领域版图的举措中获得安慰——例如数据中心以及收购ABB Ltd.机器人部门的计划——认为无论哪家平台在这场竞赛中胜出，这些布局都能带来上行空间。
Beyond Arm, Son’s diverse exposure across the AI landscape, ranging from robotics, data centers and energy, reassures some equity investors. While the billionaire’s growing bet on OpenAI remains a concern, investors take comfort from SoftBank’s plans to expand its footprint in other AI arenas — such as data centers and plans to buy ABB Ltd.’s robotics unit — as offering upside regardless of who wins the platform race.
软银的投资组合范围广泛，包括电信运营商软银公司，拥有数百万用户。这家无线服务提供商如今寻求从日本对人工智能的渴求中获益，建设数据中心并提供一系列企业服务。
SoftBank’s wide-ranging portfolio includes telecom operator SoftBank Corp., with millions ofrs. The wireless service provider now seeks to benefit from the Asian country’s hunger for AI, building data centers and offering a stack of enterprise services.
“如果OpenAI表现不佳，市场情绪会糟糕得多，但他们仍然拥有其他领域的资产，”彭博行业研究分析师Kirk Boodry表示。“一只股票能以这种方式受益于全球人工智能热潮，这相当罕见，尤其是在日本的背景下。”对于相信人工智能增长的人来说，相对实时净资产价值的折价不断扩大也提供了一个入场点。根据彭博行业研究的数据，截至9月29日，软银股价较其净资产价值折价24%，高于今年迄今20%的平均水平。
“If OpenAI doesn’t do well, sentiment is going to be a lot worse, but they still do own assets in other areas,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kirk Boodry. “It’s pretty rare to have a stock that is exposed to the global AI boom in that way especially within the Japan context.”A growing discount to real-time net asset value also offers an entry point to those who believe in AI growth. SoftBank shares traded at a 24% discount to their net asset value as of Sept. 29, wider than the year-to-date average of 20%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
“我认为，如果出现合适的催化剂，股价肯定有重新评级的潜力，”Asset Management One的基金经理Takumi Nishida表示，并补充说曾经有过关于软银以高于净资产价值溢价交易的讨论。
“I think there is certainly potential for the shares to be re-rated if the right catalyst emerges,” said Takumi Nishida, a fund manager at Asset Management One, adding that there once was discussion of SoftBank trading at a premium to its net asset value.
尽管如此，西田表示，由于人工智能开发商之间的竞争日益激烈且借贷成本不断上升，他更倾向于直接投资于存储芯片制造商铠侠控股公司（Kioxia Holdings Corp.）等人工智能硬件供应商。与软银在基准东证指数（Topix）中的权重相比，他持有的软银股票较少。
Still, Nishida said he prefers to invest directly in AI hardware suppliers such as memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings Corp.,due to intense competition among AI developers and rising borrowing costs. He holds fewer SoftBank shares compared with the company’s weighting in the benchmark Topix index.
他并非个例。对人工智能模型领域竞争加剧和债务激增的担忧，依然拖累着软银的股价。
He’s not alone. Worries about rising competition among AI models and surging debt remain a drag on SoftBank’s stock.
上个月，软银通过有史以来规模最大的企业垃圾债券发行筹集了111亿美元，以资助孙正义宏大的人工智能雄心。尽管此次发行吸引了足够的市场需求从而降低了定价，但借贷成本仍远高于其以往的水平。
SoftBank raised $11.1 billion last month via the largest corporate junk bond sale on record to finance Son’s big AI ambitions. While it drew enough demand to lower pricing, borrowing costs were still largely higher than what it has had to pay before.
据S3 Partners LLC的数据显示，一些投资者正在押注软银股价下跌，本周其空头头寸占流通股的比例升至2.36%，创下今年以来的新高。
Some investors are betting on a decline in SoftBank shares, with short interest as a percentage of float rising to 2.36% of shares available for trading this week, a new high for the year, according to S3 Partners LLC.
Sparx资产管理公司分析师韩智浩（Han Jiho）认为，软银股价持续低于其资产净值，表明股票市场已将一定程度的信用风险计入价格。他表示：“如果信用违约掉期（CDS）利差继续扩大，资产净值的进一步增长对股价的影响可能会受到限制。”
SoftBank’s persistent discount to its net asset value suggests that equity market is pricing in some degree of credit risk, according to Han Jiho, an analyst at Sparx Asset Management Co. “If CDS spreads continue to widen, further gains in NAV may have a more limited impact on the share price,” he said.
即便如此，在从6月份的高点回落后，该公司股价已有所回升。今年以来，其股价已上涨约52%。根据彭博社汇编的数据，大多数分析师预计这一趋势将持续，目前共有17个买入评级、6个持有评级和1个卖出评级。分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为9061日元（约合57.21美元），而周四东京市场的收盘价为6701日元。
Even so, the company’s stock price has gained some ground after tumbling from their June peak. They are up around 52%this year. Most analysts expect that trend to continue, with 17 buy ratings, six holds and one sell, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The average of analysts’ 12-month target price is ¥9061 ($57.21), compared with Thursday’s close of ¥6701 in Tokyo.
在6月份的季度中，软银实现了净利润，这主要得益于其持有的英特尔公司股份。这为这家科技投资公司提供了足够的底气，以等待其在OpenAI的投资及其他数十亿美元人工智能项目的回报。
In the June quarter, SoftBank earned a net profit largely due to its stake in Intel Corp. That gave the tech investor the stamina to await returns from its OpenAI bet and other multibillion-dollar AI projects.
“如果AI繁荣最终被证明是泡沫并破裂，考虑到它们的杠杆投资，损失可能非常严重，”Resona Holdings的策略师Hiroki Takei表示。“但鉴于最新财报，较高的借贷成本更多被视为尾部风险，而通过发债筹资则主要被视为增长投资的融资。”
“If the AI boom ultimately turns out to be a bubble and bursts, the damage could be severe given their leveraged investment,” said Hiroki Takei, a strategist at Resona Holdings. “But given the latest earnings, higher borrowing costs are seen more as tail risks, and raising funds through bond issuance is largely viewed as financing for growth investments.”