凯瑟琳·多赫蒂报道：全球信贷市场开始出现谨慎迹象——由于投资者在借贷规模创下纪录的同时，对企业的资产负债表越来越担忧（尤其是在通胀持续的情况下），他们不再将信贷资产视为“安全避风港”。
By Katherine Doherty Global credit markets have started to show signs of caution, as investors pull back from treating the asset class as a safe haven following record borrowings and growing concerns about balance sheets as inflation persists.
根据彭博指数显示，本周全球企业债券的利差（即债券收益率与无风险利率之间的差额）大幅上升了约5个基点，达到了半年以来的最高水平。交易员表示，周五亚洲市场开盘时，企业债券的抛售情绪进一步加剧，投资级债券的收益率溢价上升了2至4个基点。
Spreads on global corporate bonds have blown out about 5 basis points this week, the most since March. That leaves them at their widest in half a year, according to a Bloomberg index. Trading at the start of the global day in Asia on Friday pointed toward more selling, with yield premiums on investment-grade notes increasing 2 to 4 basis points, traders said.
这种信贷市场的疲软趋势与国债市场的强劲表现形成了鲜明对比：尽管美联储官员的言论大多偏向宽松货币政策，但国债价格仍在上涨。这种分化现象非常明显。在过去一年中，即使主权债务市场表现不佳，信贷市场依然表现稳健，许多投资者因此认为某些企业的信用风险甚至低于一些最强大的政府。然而，最近Paramount Skydance Corp.向SoftBank Group Corp.出售了大量债券，导致企业债务供应量激增，这令资金管理者感到担忧。
The weakness in credit contrasts with gains in Treasuries after mostly dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The divergence stands out. Credit has held up well in the past year even when sovereign debt was slumping, prompting many investors to take the view that some companies are safer bets than even the most powerful governments. But record bond sales recently from Paramount Skydance Corp. to SoftBank Group Corp. have added to a surge in supply of corporate debt that’s now giving money managers pause.
“正是这种市场的不确定性让人们不敢继续投资信贷市场，”T. Rowe Price集团亚洲及新兴市场信贷部门的投资组合经理谢尔顿·陈（Sheldon Chan）说道。
“It’s that choppiness that keeps people away from the market,” said Sheldon Chan, a portfolio manager for Asian and Emerging market credit at T. Rowe Price Group.
尽管最近几周信贷市场仍维持在历史较高水平，但诸多迹象表明投资者的谨慎情绪正在加剧。本周Paramount Skydance Corp.发行了520亿美元债券以完成史上最大规模的收购交易，其垃圾级债券在交易初期遭受了严重冲击。就在几天前，SoftBank还完成了111亿美元的垃圾级债券交易，为此不得不支付创纪录的收益率（其中7.5年期债券的收益率为9.75%），以满足其庞大的人工智能发展计划的资金需求。
While credit markets remain at historically stronger levels despite the stumbles in recent weeks, a number of signals are showing growing investor caution. After Paramount Skydance Corp. issued $52 billion of debt this week to fund the biggest Hollywood buyout ever, its junk notes were among the hardest hit in initial trading. That came just days after SoftBank pushed through a $11.1 billion junk debt deal for which it had to pay record yields, including 9.75% on a 7.5-year bond, in an effort to fund its massive AI ambitions.
“更重要的问题是，未来事情会朝着什么方向发展。这取决于宏观经济环境以及相关的政策安排，”陈（Chan）说道。他认为，鉴于美国的经济增长依然强劲，中长期的形势仍存在不确定性。“未来美国利率可能会面临更大的上升压力。”在美国债务市场中那些风险较高的部分，债券收益率与国债收益率之间的利差首次超过了 1000 个基点（basis points）——这一现象发生在 2023 年地区性银行业危机之后；自 4 月以来，随着投资者开始预期美联储会再次加息，这种利差持续上升。
“The bigger question is where do things go from here. It’s down to the macro and economic setup,” Chan said. The longer term view in the US is more uncertain, given economic growth is still good, he said. “There could be more upward pressure on US rates going forward.”Elsewhere in the riskier parts of the US debt market, spreads jumped above 1,000 basis points over Treasuries for the first time since the regional banking crisis in 2023. That follows a steady rise since April as investors began to anticipate the Fed’s next rate hike.