2024年4月25日，埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴，购物者走在非洲最大的露天市场之一——梅尔卡托市场内。——路透社华盛顿：联合国开发计划署周五表示，能源成本上升、超级厄尔尼诺现象以及借贷成本飙升，正给发展中国家带来日益沉重的压力，其处境已接近疫情期间的水平，当时二十国集团（G20）曾为最贫困国家暂停了债务偿还。
Shoppers walk within Merkato, one of Africa's biggest open air market, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 25, 2024. — Reuters WASHINGTON: Rising energy costs, a super El Nino and soaring borrowing costs are increasing pressure on developing countries, with conditions nearing those of the pandemic when the G20 suspended debt payments for the poorest nations, the United Nations Development Programme said on Friday.
联合国开发计划署署长亚历山大·德克罗（Alexander De Croo）对记者表示，全球决策者预计将在10月12日至18日于泰国曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行年会上，讨论发展中国家面临的巨大挑战。
Global policymakers are expected to discuss the huge challenges facing developing countries at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in the Thai capital Bangkok from October 12 to 18, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo told reporters.
他警告称，这些事件可能会引发“多米诺骨牌效应，导致许多国家陷入财政困境”，但他并未呼吁进行新一轮的债务减免。
He warned events could trigger a "domino effect with many, many countries being pushed into financial distress," but stopped short of calling for a new round of debt relief.
国际货币基金组织与世界银行年会汇集了全球顶级金融官员，共同探讨全球经济、人工智能、气候变化及其他挑战。由于对通胀的担忧加剧，加之伊朗战争推高了能源价格，各国政府的借贷成本已达到几十年来最高水平。
The IMF-World Bank meetings will bring together top financial officials from around the world for talks on the global economy, AI, climate change and other challenges, as government borrowing costs hit their highest in several decades on heightened concerns about inflation as the Iran war drives up energy prices.
与此同时，自1950年以来最强烈的厄尔尼诺天气现象预计将在一些地区引发更多洪水，在另一些地区造成干旱，到2027年底，预计将有额外4900万人陷入粮食不安全境地。
At the same time, the strongest El Nino weather effect since 1950 is expected to trigger more floods in some regions and droughts in others, plunging an expected 49 million more people into food insecurity by the end of 2027.
德克罗表示，联合国开发计划署自战争爆发以来进行的调查显示，这场冲突已从区域性冲突演变为“一场影响约100个国家的危机”。他说，许多政府已采取措施保护本国公民免受油价飙升的影响，但其财政储备现已捉襟见肘，债务水平不断上升，且短期内看不到真正的缓解迹象。他补充说，各国应专注于采取措施帮助最脆弱的群体。
De Croo said UNDP surveys conducted since the start of the war showed it had morphed from a regional conflict to "a crisis which has an impact on approximately 100 countries." Many governments have taken steps to shield their citizens from the surge in oil prices but their fiscal coffers are now running low and their debt levels are rising, with no real relief in sight, he said, adding that countries should focus on measures to help the most vulnerable.
他说，虽然一些国家正在实现能源来源多样化并调整其粮食系统，但这些努力需要时间，这使它们目前处于“非常、非常艰难的境地”。
While some countries were diversifying their energy sources and adapting their food systems, those efforts would take time, leaving them in a "really tough, tough spot" for now, he said.
补贴负担 联合国开发计划署（UNDP）首席经济学家乔治·格雷·莫利纳（George Gray Molina）表示，9月份出现了重大转变，一些政府开始允许更高的能源价格传导至民众，并开始取消自战争爆发以来一直用于控制食品和能源价格的补贴、税收减免及其他措施。
Subsidy burden UNDP Chief Economist George Gray Molina said a major shift was seen in September, as some governments began to allow higher energy prices to flow through to citizens, and started rolling back subsidies, tax relief and other steps that had kept food and energy prices largely in check since the war began.
“这意味着它们在财政和金融上已无法承受这一负担，”他说。“我们认为这是一个需要讨论的重大问题。”他指出，即使是中等收入国家，在竞相缓解能源价格上涨的过程中，也已迅速耗尽了财政缓冲。
"That means that they're not able to contain fiscally and financially that burden," he said. "We think that this is a significant issue that needs to be discussed." Even middle-income countries had rapidly depleted their fiscal buffers as they raced to mitigate rising energy prices, he said.
莫利纳表示，未来60天债券市场和油价的走势将至关重要。联合国开发计划署称，9月份，价格上涨已在10个国家引发了抗议和社会动荡。许多国家预计情况还会恶化。
Molina said bond market and oil price developments over the next 60 days would be crucial. Higher prices had already contributed to protests and social unrest in 10 countries in September, UNDP said. And many countries expect conditions to deteriorate.
在联合国开发计划署调查的26个国家中，有22个国家将这场危机列为高优先级或中优先级；13个国家表示，这场危机是在现有的经济或财政危机之上叠加发生的，所有26个国家都认为最糟糕的情况尚未到来。
Twenty-two of 26 nations surveyed by UNDP rated the crisis as a high or medium priority; 13 said it came on top of an existing economic or fiscal crisis, and all 26 judged that the worst was still to come.