效仿总统唐纳德·特朗普的做法，那些否认选举结果的人以“民调数据本身就是虚假信息”为由，来为共和党糟糕的民调表现开脱。他们声称这些民调不过是心理战手段，或是旨在阻止共和党选民在11月投票的阴谋。
Taking their lead from president Donald Trump, election deniers have dismissed the GOP’s terrible polling numbers by claiming the polls themselves are fake, a psyop, or a ploy to stop Republicans from turning out to vote in November.
保守派智库“传统基金会”主席凯文·罗伯茨在接受福克斯新闻采访时称，中期选举民调其实是一种“心理战手段……目的是打压保守派选民的投票积极性。”
Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, told Fox News that midterm election polling is a “psyop…to depress conservative turnout.”
“中期选举即将来临，”在网上以“Catturd”为名的MAGA支持者兼选举否认论者菲利普·布坎南在其拥有400万粉丝的X账号上写道，“那些荒谬至极的假民调也纷纷出炉了。”十多年来，特朗普始终毫无证据地声称美国选举存在舞弊现象。2020年败选后，网络上迅速涌现出大量宣扬选举否认论的组织与群体，他们大肆散布“前总统乔·拜登从特朗普手中窃取了选举胜利”的毫无根据的言论。
“The midterms are near,” Phillip Buchanan, the election denier and MAGA troll known online as Catturd, wrote to his four million followers on X. “The laughable fake polls are rolling out.”For over a decade, Trump has claimed without evidence that American elections have been impacted by fraud. In the wake of his loss in 2020, an entire online community and ecosystem of election denial groups sprung up to push the baseless allegation that former president Joe Biden stole the election from Trump.
如今这些言论已然成为共和党意识形态的核心内容，以至于今年11月参与联邦及州级选举的数百名共和党候选人都对美国选举的公正性表示怀疑。
These claims have become central to the Republican Party’s belief system, to the point where hundreds of GOP candidates for federal and statewide elections in November have expressed doubts about the integrity of US elections.
眼下，多项民调显示特朗普的支持率处于历史低位；在特朗普2024年轻松获胜的各州，民主党在参议院选举中也占据优势。据路透社本周报道，如今共和党人正大量资金投入到原本被认为稳操胜券的数十个选区。
And now, multiple polls have shown Trump’s approval rating at historic lows with Democrats leading in Senate races across the country in states Trump won easily in 2024. Reuters reported this week that Republicans are now pouring money into dozens of races they considered safe.
据美国媒体监督机构“Media Matters for America”的分析，自去年重返白宫以来，特朗普已39次称民调结果造假，仅8月份就有9次。上个月，他在Truth Social上发帖称，这些民调是民主党人为阻止共和党人投票而策划的“打击士气的手段”。周一，特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者们再次否认爱荷华州的负面民调结果，并声称：“那些民调都是假的。”白宫并未回应相关置评请求。
Trump has called polls fake 39 times since returning to the White House last year, according to analysis from media watchdog Media Matters for America, including nine times in August alone. In one post on Truth Social last month, he claimed the polls were “demoralization operations” designed by Democrats to stop Republicans from voting. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump again dismissed negative polling out of Iowa and stated: “The polls are fake.”
不过正如《WIRED》本周报道的那样，特朗普的幕僚们对当前的民调数据以及共和党可能失去众议院和参议院控制权的情况深感担忧。一位与特朗普共事多年的亲信对《WIRED》坦言：“哦，没错，我们肯定会惨败。”
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment, but as WIRED reported this week, Trump’s own aides are extremely concerned about the polling and the potential loss of both the House and Senate. “Oh, yeah, we're going to get creamed,” one longtime Trumpworld operative told WIRED.
尽管白宫忧心忡忡，但那些否认选举结果真实性的人士也纷纷附和特朗普关于“民调造假”的说法。
While the White House may be worried, figures in the election denial community have repeated Trump’s claims about fake polls.
史蒂夫·班农在过去六年里一直是宣扬选举否认阴谋论的最响亮声音之一，他也将最近的民调称为“心理战”，并补充道：“我要确保每个人都明白，无论媒体告诉你什么，无论他们怎么说什么‘蓝色海啸’、‘蓝色浪潮’，我们的命运依然掌握在我们自己手中。”
Steve Bannon, who has been among the loudest voices promoting election denial conspiracies for the last six years, also called the recent polling a “psyop,” adding: “I want to make sure everybody understands that our fate is still in our hands, no matter what the media is telling you, no matter what they're saying about a blue tsunami, a blue wave.”
前陆军上校、现为选举否认论“超级巨星”的塞思·凯谢尔，自称与白宫关系密切，他也将负面民调斥为“心理战”，并在X平台上写道：“现在的民调如此不道德，应该被取缔。”
Seth Keshel, a former Army colonel-turned election denial superstar who claims to have close ties to the White House, also branded the negative polls a “psyop,” adding on X: “Polling is so unethical now it should be outlawed.”
部分MAGA（让美国再次伟大）人士承认，低民调数字反映了特朗普未能兑现承诺的现实。然而，当右翼播客主持人兼选举否认论者蒂姆·普尔认为特朗普低支持率是高油价和伊朗持续战争导致时，拥有超过50万X平台粉丝的MAGA政治评论员比尔·米切尔回应道：“也许是假民调。” 数十位知名MAGA网红纷纷发表看法。拥有22万X平台粉丝、大力鼓吹选举否认阴谋论的朱莉·唐纳茨写道：“民调是假的。所有50个州都是红州。” 该帖子配有一张显示特朗普广泛获得支持的地图图片，但该图片源自2016年。
Some MAGA figures have conceded that the low polling numbers reflect the reality of Trump’s failure to keep his promises. When right-wing podcaster and election denier Tim Pool suggested Trump’s low approval rating was the result of high gas prices and the ongoing war in Iran, however, Bill Mitchell, a MAGA political commentator with over half a million followers on X responded: “Maybe it's fake polls.”Dozens and dozens of high profile MAGA influencers have weighed in. “Polls are fake. All 50 States are Red,” Julie Donuts, a prominent booster of election denial conspiracy theories with 220,000 followers on X, wrote. The post was accompanied by an image of a map showing widespread support for Trump that comes from 2016.
坎布里·纳尔逊是一名支持“让美国再次伟大”运动的网红，曾供职于“美国优先政策研究所”。她曾声称月亮有一周时间从天空中消失了。此次她将虚假民调的责任归咎于媒体，并写道：“他们实际上正在实施选举史上最大的骗局——制造虚假民调、安排夸大其词的采访，目的就是打击我们的士气、让我们宅在家里。他们害怕能感受到的支持特朗普的势头越来越强。千万别上当。”
Kambree Nelson, a MAGA influencer who worked for the America First Policy Institute and once suggested the moon had disappeared for a week, blamed the media for the fake polls, writing: “Theyre [sic] actually running the biggest scam of the election. Fake polls, puffball interviews, all designed to crush our spirit and keep us home. They’re terrified of the momentum they can feel building. Don’t fall for it.”
马里兰州选举诚信组织专门散布毫无事实依据的选举否认阴谋论。该组织在社交平台X上发布帖子，毫无证据地声称：“在过去五次选举周期中，民调结果平均被人为偏向民主党3个百分点。”
The Maryland Election Integrity Group, which promotes baseless election denial conspiracy theories, shared a post on X that claimed without evidence that “polling has been skewed to favor Democrats by three points on average over the last FIVE cycles.”
近几周来，一些否认选举结果的人甚至声称根本不存在真正的民调。“我今年52岁，从来没接受过‘民调’。民调就是用来左右选民投票意向的骗局，”这位名叫大卫·弗里曼的选举否认者、网名“冈瑟·伊格尔曼”的亲特朗普网红这样写道。不过正如该帖子下一位热门评论者所指出的那样，弗里曼曾多次转发对特朗普有利的民调结果，该评论写道：“只要民调结果对冈瑟有利，他就特别喜欢。”
In recent weeks, some election deniers have even suggested that polls never actually take place. “52 years old. I have never been ‘polled’. Polls are fake to sway votes,” David Freeman, an election denier and pro-Trump influencer known online as Gunther Eagleman, wrote on But as one of the top commenters on the post points out, Freeman has repeatedly shared polling that is favorable towards Trump, writing: “Gunther LOVES polls when they are in his favor.”