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巴西大选获胜者如何在空缺增多之际重塑其机构How Brazil's election winner could reshape its institutions as vacancies mount

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巴西利亚,10月2日——巴西下任总统将面临大量需要填补的职位空缺,这些职位均属于该国最具影响力的机构,包括最高法院、中央银行及各经济监管机构。

BRASILIA, Oct 2 - Brazil's next president is set to inherit an unusually large number of appointments to the country's most powerful institutions, with vacancies piled up at the Supreme Court, central bank and economic regulators.

大量空缺职位的存在意味着,在左翼总统卢拉与参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗这场势均力敌的竞选中胜出者,将能对那些负责制定货币政策、监管金融市场及解释宪法的机构产生重大影响。两位候选人将于周日展开首轮投票,预计本月晚些时候将举行第二轮投票。

The growing backlog of unfilled posts means the winner of the tight race between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro could gain significant influence over bodies that help shape monetary policy, oversee financial markets and interpret the constitution. The two candidates will face off in the first round of the electoral contest on Sunday, with a runoff later in the month forecast as the most likely outcome.

这些空缺现象折射出巴西政治格局的深刻变化:权力日益增强的国会正将人事任命审批作为政治施压的手段,从而削弱了行政部门的运作空间。

The vacancies reflect a broader shift in Brazilian politics: an increasingly powerful Congress is using confirmation of nominees as a tool for political leverage, eroding the executive branch's room for maneuver.

在卢拉当前任期内,以右翼势力为主的国会多次拖延对其提名人选的审批,卢拉本人也未能顺利提出部分人选。

A predominantly right-wing Congress has flexed this growing power during Lula's current term by delaying confirmation of a number of his nominees. Lula has also failed to make some nominations.

据一位要求匿名的知情人士透露,过去总统提名人选通常会迅速提交参议院委员会审议,但在疫情期间许多审批流程陷入停滞,需等待参议院议长批准。现任参议院议长达维·阿尔科伦布雷延续了这一做法,使得权力进一步向参议院集中,原本常规性的审批程序也变成了政治博弈的工具。总统府与阿尔科伦布雷办公室均未对相关询问作出回应。

While nominations once went promptly to Senate committees for approval, many nomination processes stalled during the pandemic, awaiting the Senate president's approval. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has maintained that practice, concentrating power in the Senate and turning what was once a routine step into a political decision, said a person familiar with the process, who requested anonymity.

圣保罗大学法学教授鲁本斯·贝萨克指出,由于总统任命权被用作政治筹码,行政部门如今在提交提名人选前都会先评估其在参议院的通过可能性。

The presidential palace and Alcolumbre's office did not respond to requests for comment.

央行空缺职位:自1月起,巴西央行的两个董事会席位一直空缺,其中包括负责在利率决策前发布经济预测的政策岗位。这一空缺时长创下了历史纪录。卢拉至今尚未提名合适人选。

The use of presidential appointments as political leverage has made the executive reluctant to submit nominees without first gauging their Senate prospects, said Rubens Beçak, a law professor at the University of Sao Paulo.

今年4月,参议员们否决了卢拉提名的最高法院人选——总检察长豪尔赫·梅西亚斯。这一历史性挫折导致该职位空缺时间已接近一年,这也是自20世纪80年代巴西恢复民主制度以来该职位空缺时长最长的一次。

BANK SEATS At the central bank, two board seats, including the economic policy post that oversees forecasts ahead of rate decisions, have been empty since January, a record length of time for those posts to be left open. Lula has yet to submit nominees.

自2024年末起,巴西证券监管局(CVM)的董事会也出现空缺;而反垄断监管机构Cade因缺少主席及两名董事,目前仅勉强达到法定最低人数,导致并购审查工作被迫推迟。

In April, senators rejected Lula's Supreme Court nominee, Solicitor General Jorge Messias, in a historic setback that extended a vacancy now nearly a year old, the longest since Brazil's return to democracy in the 1980s.

热图利奥·瓦加斯基金会的政治学家克劳迪奥·库托称这种人事空缺现象“极其成问题”,指出这有可能导致所有任命权都集中到某一届政府手中,还会使那些本应保持中立的机构被政治化。

Securities regulator CVM has had board vacancies since late 2024, while antitrust watchdog Cade, lacking its president and two board members, is near its minimum quorum, delaying merger reviews.

权力结构变化:据立法监督机构DIAP负责人诺里贝尔格·迪亚斯介绍,过去总统与执政联盟政党之间就能敲定的人事任命与法案,如今越来越依赖于国会各派领袖之间的协商结果。

Claudio Couto, a political scientist at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, called the backlog "deeply problematic," saying it risks concentrating appointments in one administration and politicizing "bodies that are meant to remain nonpartisan." STRUCTURAL SHIFT Nominations and bills, once largely negotiated between the president and coalition parties, increasingly hinge on deals among congressional leaders, said Neuriberg Dias, head of legislative watchdog DIAP.

他指出,国会对财政支出掌控力的增强,改变了行政与立法部门之间谈判的动机。

Congress' growing control over spending, he said, has changed the incentives behind executive-legislative bargaining.

根据巴西计划部提供给路透社的数据,2018年时,国会指定的专项拨款占联邦可自由支配支出的7.5%,而到2025年这一比例已升至21%。

Congressional earmarks — which direct funding to local or pet projects — accounted for 7.5% of effective federal discretionary spending in 2018, but swelled to 21% in 2025, according to Planning Ministry data provided to Reuters.

相应地,政府对立法议程的掌控力也有所减弱。去年,国会共通过了178项议员提出的法案,而总统提出的法案仅有50项。DIAP的数据显示,2007年卢拉第二任期内情况则恰恰相反:总统提出的法案有142项,议员提出的仅为52项。

The government's grip on the agenda has in turn weakened. Last year, Congress approved 178 bills introduced by legislators and only 50 from the executive. In 2007, during Lula's second term, the reverse was true: 142 executive bills versus 52 from Congress, according to DIAP data.

据知情人士透露,2026年的大选进一步拖慢了人事任命进程,因为议员们都在观望卢拉能否连任。届时选民还将选出众议院全部513名议员以及参议院三分之二的席位。

The 2026 campaign has slowed nominations further, people familiar with the matter said, as lawmakers wait to see whether Lula wins another term. Voters will also elect all 513 members of the Lower House and two-thirds of the Senate.

随着权力从总统手中转移至国会,这次选举不仅将决定谁来执掌巴西,还将决定获胜者拥有多大的权限来任命官员并塑造关键机构。

With power shifting from the presidency to Congress, the election may decide not only who governs Brazil, but how much room the winner will have to appoint officials and shape key institutions.