—— 佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯正向佛罗里达州民主党捐赠 25 万美元。在阳光州这只是杯水车薪 —— 但这笔款项预示着巨大的政治转变。
— Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is sending the Florida Democratic Party $250,000. It's a relative pittance in the Sunshine State — but the check signals a big political shift.
为何重要：多年来，该州党部的温和派领导人一直抵制桑德斯推崇的民主社会主义者崛起。但政治变局和资金需求让双方走得比以往任何时候都近：
Why it matters: The state party's moderate leaders have resisted the rising tide of democratic socialists elevated by Sanders for years. But political changes and financial need have brought the two together like never before:
- 佛罗里达州民主党在野数十年后已近乎破产，全国建制派民主党组织迄今拒绝伸出援手。
• The Florida Democratic Party is essentially broke after decades of being out of power, and national establishment Democratic organizations have so far refused to help.
- 安吉·尼克松今夏加入美国民主社会主义者组织，成为该州党部的联邦参议员提名人。桑德斯背书支持她，一名助手称桑德斯早有意提供帮助。
• Angie Nixon, who joined the Democratic Socialists of America this summer, is the state party's U.S. Senate nominee. Sanders endorsed her and has long wanted to help, an aide said. Zoom in:
聚焦细节：尽管在佛罗里达州筹款和支出远不及对手，尼克松和民主党州长候选人大卫·乔利在民调中仍紧咬各自的共和党对手 —— 参议员阿什利·穆迪和众议员拜伦·唐纳兹。
Despite being vastly outraised and outspent in Florida, Nixon and Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly are stubbornly close in polling to their respective Republican opponents, Sen. Ashley Moody and Rep. Byron Donalds.
- 迄今为止，全国民主党因多年惨败 —— 尤其是败给特朗普总统和德桑蒂斯州长 —— 而不愿在佛罗里达投入资源，该州 10 个昂贵的媒体市场被视为糟糕的投资。
• Until now, national Democrats have been hesitant to spend in Florida due to years of soul-crushing defeats —especially at the hands of President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis — that made the state and its 10 expensive media markets look like a bad investment.
- 今年，随着共和党全国声势下滑，德克萨斯、俄亥俄、爱荷华和阿拉斯加对民主党而言显得更有希望。
• This year, with Republican fortunes sagging nationwide, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska look more promising for Democrats.
局势可能很快改变。尼克松周四对一位自由派播客主表示，民主党参议院竞选委员会主席、纽约州参议员吉莉布兰德为她举办了筹款活动。
That could change soon. Nixon told a liberal podcaster Thursday that the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, held a fundraiser for her.
- 参议院少数党领袖舒默（纽约州民主党人），上周被尼克松点名批评未提供帮助，也可能拨款相助。
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), whom Nixon called out last week for not helping, also might make money available.
- "大家有点畏手畏脚，因为不幸的是，哈里斯副总统作为一位黑人女性败选了。因此人们在资助黑人女性方面非常犹豫，尤其是在南方，" 尼克松在 MS NOW 的《Clock It with Symone & Eugene》节目中表示。
• "Folks are a little gun-shy because, unfortunately, Vice President [Kamala] Harris lost as a Black woman. And so people are being very hesitant in terms of funding Black women, especially in the South," Nixon told MS NOW's "Clock It with Symone & Eugene." Behind the scenes:
幕后：佛罗里达州民主党主席妮基·弗里德一直在积极争取全国捐赠人的资金，盟友透露，但她从未向桑德斯伸出援手，因为两人存在意识形态分歧，且州党内部也有抵制声音。
Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried has been constantly working national donors for money, allies say, but she never asked Sanders for help because of their ideological differences and resistance within the state party.
- 社会主义者——以及桑德斯相关的观点——长期以来被视为该州的政治包袱，因为许多西班牙裔选民来自与左翼暴力相关联的国家。
• Socialists — and Sanders' associated views — have long been regarded as political liabilities in a state where so many Hispanic voters hailed from countries associated with leftist violence.
- 但当桑德斯表示愿向一个“胜利基金”捐款时——该基金将州党与尼克松的竞选活动联合起来——弗里德没有设置障碍。
• But when Sanders signaled he was ready to give to a "victory fund" that joins the state party and Nixon's campaign, Fried didn't stand in the way.
- “安吉能动员我们的基本盘，”弗里德私下对党内持怀疑态度的盟友说。“每一笔帮助安吉的资金，都能帮助乔利和帮助名单下方的候选人。”
• "Angie's going to turn out our base," Fried privately told skeptical allies in the party. "Every dollar that helps Angie, helps Jolly and helps the candidates down ballot."
摩擦点：建制派民主党人分裂为两派：一派不愿与桑德斯扯上关系，另一派则认为他应该从其2300万美元竞选基金中捐出更多，而不仅仅是25万美元。
Friction point: Establishment Democrats are divided between those who don't want to be associated with Sanders and those who wanted him to give more of his $23 million campaign fund than just $250,000.
- “就这？他应该捐更多，”佛罗里达州联邦众议员洛伊斯·弗兰克尔说，她一直批评桑德斯，且不同意桑德斯和尼克松对以色列的批评。
• "That's it? He should send more," said Florida Rep. Lois Frankel, who has been critical of Sanders and doesn't agree with Sanders' and Nixon's criticisms of Israel.
- “共和党人会因为我们收了伯尼的‘社会主义钱’而猛攻我们，我们却连足够的钱都没拿到，”一位民主党候选人抱怨道。“但没错，这就是奇怪的床伴。”
• "Republicans are going to kill us for taking Bernie socialist money and we're not even getting enough of it," one Democratic candidate groused. "But yeah, strange bedfellows."
- 南迈阿密市民主党市长哈维尔·费尔南德斯说：“我们越围绕伯尼团结，越损害我们的长远前景。”
• Said Javier Fernandez, a Democratic mayor of the city of South Miami: "The more we rally around Bernie, the more we hurt our long-term prospects."
- “这是一场浮士德式的交易：政党获取了伯尼/DSA（美国民主社会主义者）试图利用该党所带来的能量和活力，但这妥协了温和派和进步派民主党人的核心价值观，使我们进一步偏离主流选民的观点。”
• "It's a Faustian bargain: The party captures the energy and dynamism of the Bernie/DSA that are trying to use the party, but it compromises core values of moderate and progressive Democrats and puts us further out of step with the views of mainstream voters." The big picture:
大局观：随着进步派和社会主义倾向的候选人及活动家激活基本盘，民主党正在演变。
The Democratic Party is evolving as progressives and socialist-aligned candidates and activists energize its base.
- 根据盖洛普上周发布的调查，如今全美有65%的民主党人对社会主义持好感态度；调查还显示，无党派人士对社会主义的支持率也在上升。
• Nationwide, 65% of Democrats now have a favorable view of socialism, according to a Gallup survey released last week that also found support rising among independents.
- 尼克松是吸引佛罗里达州民众热情参与的民主党核心人物。她的集会同时也是组织活动，旨在招募志愿者上门拉票、拨打电话或参与其他志愿工作。她在社交媒体上也颇具影响力，还拥有一批忠实的意见领袖支持者。
• Nixon is the Democratic engine drawing enthusiastic crowds in Florida. Her rallies double as organizational events to harness volunteers to knock on doors, make phone-bank calls or volunteer. She also has a notable social media presence and a stable of influencers.
- 这与乔利的低调竞选活动形成鲜明对比——乔利的社交媒体影响力有限，举办的活动也屈指可数。
• It's a stark contrast with Jolly's low-key candidacy, which has a small social-media footprint and events.
深层解读：尽管初期出现过一些摩擦，如今尼克松的竞选团队已与州民主党委员会达成合作，后者也为其提供了额外的组织支持。
Between the lines: After some initial tension Nixon's campaign is aligned with the state party, which is providing additional organizational support.
- 据州民主党委员会统计，全州共有6000名志愿者，过去两年里他们助力民主党在佛罗里达州的立法机构、学区委员会及地方政府选举中成功拿下46个席位。
• Statewide, the state party reports an army of 6,000 volunteers who helped Democrats flip 46 seats in legislative, school-board and local-government races across Florida in two years.
- 如今，佛罗里达州的民主党在选民注册人数增长方面已能与共和党并驾齐驱。
• Florida Democrats are now keeping pace with the GOP in voter registration gains.
- 桑德斯已派遣自己的工作人员及组织专员前往佛罗里达州，协助尼克松分发宣传资料、发送短信及开展电话拉票工作。
• Sanders has sent his staff and organizers to Florida to help Nixon with literature, texting and phone-banking.
不过也要看到：佛罗里达州的共和党登记选民数量仍远多于民主党，优势幅度超过150万。此外，佛罗里达州共和党拥有运转高效的选民动员体系，还有一批经验丰富的政治专业人士，正是这些力量确保了该州长期保持共和党优势。
Yes, but: Florida Republicans still have far moreed voters, an edge of more than 1.5 million. And the Florida GOP has a well-oiled turnout machine and a stable of political pros who have consistently helped keep the state reliably red.
- “我们绝不会失去佛罗里达州，”一位共和党人士说道，并指出在多数民调中穆迪与唐纳兹的支持率略高于尼克松与乔利。
• "We don't lose Florida," one of them said, noting Moody and Donalds are marginally ahead of Nixon and Jolly in most polls.
- 不过，随着汽油价格、利率持续上涨，房地产市场逐渐降温，共和党内部也出现了些许不安情绪。
• Still, there are jitters in the GOP as gas prices rise along with interest rates and the real estate market cools.
- “我不会断言安吉或乔利一定会胜选，”一位共和党顾问说道，“很难想象一位美国社会民主党候选人能在大选中胜出，但也不排除她能成功动员核心选民却最终惜败，而乔利借此机会险胜的可能。谁也说不准。”
• "I'm not going to say Angie or Jolly are going to win," said one GOP consultant. "It's hard to see a DSA candidate winning a general [election], but could I see a world where she turns out the base and falls short but Jolly benefits from it and ekes it out?
各方言论：尼克松的竞选经理尤妮克·奥尔蒂斯表示，桑德斯提供的资金确实有所帮助，不过如今巨额资金的影响力已大不如前。
Nobody knows." What they're saying: Nixon's campaign manager, Eunic Ortiz, said the money from Sanders helps, but big money is less salient nowadays.
- 奥蒂斯说：“共和党人的‘亿万富翁捐助者在资金上很可能超过我们，但我们知道，我们在组织能力上会胜过他们。’我们要依靠基层人员、邻里之间的交谈，以及金钱买不到的活力与激情来赢得胜利。”
• Republicans' "billionaire donors will likely outspend us, but we know we will out-organize them," Ortiz said. "We're going to win with people on the ground, neighbors talking to neighbors, and the kind of energy and excitement money can't buy." • "Did we see a world where Bernie led the way in getting national money to Florida?
- 弗里德的一名盟友说：“我们是否看到过伯尼带头为佛罗里达争取全国资金的情况？没有。但全国性的捐助者已开始向佛罗里达捐款。而伯尼则率先释放出全国正在关注这里的信号。”
No," said an ally of Fried's. "But national donors are starting to give to Florida. And Bernie was the first nod the nation is paying attention."