参议院共和党人指出，特朗普总统在那些对赢得参议院选举至关重要的摇摆州——如北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州和阿拉斯加州——对独立选民的吸引力正日益下降。一些共和党参议员警告特朗普应远离这些关键的参议院竞选活动，指出他的出现很可能会令独立选民产生反感。不过，像堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔以及俄亥俄州的乔恩·休斯特德这类面临连任压力的现任议员则希望特朗普能亲自前往助阵，指望他能激发MAGA支持者及共和党基本盘选民的投票热情。
Senate Republicans say President Trump has become increasingly toxic with independent voters critical to winning Senate races in battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska. Some GOP senators are warning Trump to stay away from key Senate races, cautioning that his presence would likely turn off independent voters. But vulnerable incumbents such as Republican Sens. Roger Marshall (Kan.) and Jon Husted (Ohio) want Trump to visit anyway, hoping he’ll boost lagging enthusiasm among MAGA and GOP base voters.
特朗普曾敦促共和党选民“假装”他也是中期选举的候选人，但部分共和党参议员认为此举风险极大，很可能引起独立选民的反感，而他们视这些选民为保住参议院多数席位的关键。北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯表示：“我们的选民中有40%属于无党派人士。仅靠MAGA基本盘是赢不了选举的。”北卡罗来纳州的参议院席位被视为本次选举的关键争夺点，即将退休的蒂利斯还建议该州的共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利在选举日之前不要与特朗普一同开展竞选活动。
Trump has urged Republican voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot in the midterm elections, but some GOP senators say that’s a risky move that could backfire with independent voters, whom they view as critical to keeping their Senate majority. “Forty percent of our electorate is unaffiliated. You can’t win with just a pure MAGA base,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), whose seat in North Carolina is a big prize on the Senate battleground map. Tillis, who is retiring, said Michael Whatley, the Senate Republican candidate in North Carolina, shouldn’t campaign with Trump before Election Day.
“我认为这对他并无益处。目前没有任何民调显示特朗普能帮助我们赢得无党派选民的支持，”他说。蒂利斯指出，那些竞选形势胶着的共和党候选人若能与特朗普保持一定距离，才是明智之举。在9月11日至14日由福克斯新闻开展的全国性民调中，特朗普在独立选民中的支持率仅为24%。这位即将卸任的参议员补充道：“要想明智行事，就得让候选人展现真实的自我。如果他们关心伊朗局势的走向——大多数议员都对此忧心忡忡——或者关心物价水平等问题……我认为只要表明‘我们必须着手解决这些问题’，就能赢得选票。”
“I don’t think it benefits him. I haven’t seen any poll where [Trump] is going to help us with unaffiliateds,” he said. Tillis said Whatley and other GOP candidates in toss-up races would be “smart” to create some distance from Trump, whoed a 24 percent job approval rating among independent voters in a nationwide Fox News poll conducted Sept. 11-14. “If you’re going to be smart, you got to let the candidates be who they are,” the retiring senator said. “If they are concerned with the progress of the war in Iran, which most members are, or if they’re concerned with affordability … I think there are votes to be had by saying, ‘We got to work on this.”
此前，由美国退休人士协会资助、法布里齐奥·沃德与Impact Research机构于9月份对北卡罗来纳州1,115名潜在选民开展的民调显示……民调结果显示，仅有26%的无党派选民对特朗普的工作表现给予。《国会山报》已联系白宫寻求回应。特朗普计划在11月3日大选前前往多个参议院竞选关键州造势，包括俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州、内布拉斯加州、阿拉斯加州、德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州。
An AARP-sponsored poll of 1,115 likely voters in North Carolina conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research from Sept. 17-20 found that only 26 percent of independent voters give Trump a favorable job performance rating. The Hill reached out to the White House for comment. Trump is planning to stump in several Senate battleground states before the Nov. 3 election, including Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, Texas and Florida.
他定于周二访问俄亥俄州，为处境艰难的共和党现任参议员赫斯特助选。不过部分共和党参议员认为，特朗普的到访可能适得其反，对赫斯特以及艾奥瓦州的共和党参选人、众议员阿什利·欣森等候选人不利——后者近期不断批评伊朗战争及其对汽油与食品价格的影响。一位不愿透露姓名的共和党参议员在谈及特朗普在关键选区开展竞选活动的计划时指出，在因伊朗战争及特朗普的关税政策导致物价上涨、选民怨气上升的中西部各州开展竞选实属失策。
Trump is planning to visit Ohio on Tuesday to support Husted, the embattled Senate GOP incumbent. But some Republican senators think that Trump’s visit could backfire on candidates such as Husted or Iowa's GOP Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has recently stepped up her criticism of the Iran war and its impact on gas and food prices. One Republican senator, who requested anonymity to comment on Trump’s plans to stump in Senate battlegrounds, argued it would be a mistake to campaign in Midwestern states where higher costs caused by the Iran war and Trump’s tariff policies are fueling voter anger.
“特朗普确实能激发我们阵营的投票热情，这一点很重要；我们需要选民踊跃投票。但真正能左右选举结果的还是那些无党派选民。目前他们对特朗普的评价并不正面，”这位共和党议员说道。他还指出，特朗普在摇摆州开展竞选活动可能令更多无党派选民产生反感，这一人数很可能超过因他的到访而受到鼓舞的共和党选民数量。
“He will energize our base, and that’s important. We need our voters to turn out, but the ones that are making the decision, really, are those independent voters. And right now, they’re not looking favorably at President Trump,” said the GOP lawmaker. The senator said the number of independents who are likely to be put off by Trump campaigning in a swing state are likely larger than the number of Republican voters who would be spurred to vote because of his visit.
“我们需要这些无党派选民，”该议员警告道。不过，两位来自中西部摇摆州的处境艰难的共和党议员则向《国会山报》表示，他们认为特朗普的到访利大于弊。赫斯特表示希望特朗普能为自己助选，并指出在2024年大选中，特朗普在俄亥俄州以55%对44%的得票率大胜前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯。“他在俄亥俄州赢了11个百分点，”赫斯特说道。
“We need those independents,” the senator warned. But two vulnerable Republicans in Midwestern swing states told The Hill that they view Trump’s presence as more of an asset than a liability. Husted said that he wants Trump to campaign for him, noting the president soundly defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris in Ohio during the 2024 election, 55 percent to 44 percent. “He won Ohio by 11 points,” Husted said.
而面临魅力非凡的大型教会牧师、民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿强劲挑战的马歇尔则表示，如果特朗普能到堪萨斯州为自己助选，他会“求之不得”。
Marshall, who faces a surprisingly tough challenge from charismatic megachurch pastor and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, said he would “love” it if Trump stumps for him in Kansas.
“我非常希望他能来，”他说。马歇尔上个月对记者表示，他认为特朗普对于动员共和党选民至关重要。“堪萨斯州可能有20万选民只有在特朗普作为候选人出现在选票上时才会投票，”他说，“显然，他需要向这些选民传达一个信息：他确实在选票上；如果我们失去众议院控制权，就会出现接二连三的弹劾——他的政策议程也将就此终结。”
“I’d love to have him,” he said. Marshall told reporters last month that he views Trump as critical to turning out GOP votes. “There may be 200,000 people in Kansas that only vote when President Trump is on the ballot,” he said. “Certainly he needs to communicate to them that he is on the ballot, that if we lose the House it will just be one impeachment after another — his agenda is over with.”
共和党策略师、前特朗普竞选代言人福特·奥康奈尔认为，那些能更有效地动员核心支持者的候选人将在11月胜出。“特朗普最擅长激发共和党选民的投票热情。他简直就是一台单枪匹马的‘投票动员机器’，尤其在共和党阵营中，”他说，“问题在于：要想保住众多席位，尤其是那些传统上属于共和党大本营的地区，就必须让共和党人保持高涨的斗志。”
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign surrogate, argues that candidates who do a better job of turning out core supporters will win in November. “Trump is the best person at lighting a fire under the backsides of Republican voters to turn out votes. He is a one-man get-out-the-vote machine particularly among Republicans,” he said. “The problem is making sure you get Republicans to be fired up if you want to hold many of these seats, particularly the ones that are in more traditionally red territories,” O'Connell added.
特朗普定于周二前往内布拉斯加州。目前，共和党参议员皮特·里基茨正与独立候选人丹·奥斯本展开激烈角逐；后者多次抨击里基茨支持建设数据中心以及从事高收益股票投资的行为。未来几天，特朗普还将造访俄克拉荷马州、阿拉巴马州和得克萨斯州等共和党势力强大的地区。
Trump is scheduled to travel Tuesday to Nebraska, where Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is in a tough race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn, who has hit the GOP incumbent over data centers and his profitable stock investments. Trump is also scheduled to visit Republican strongholds in the next few days, such as Oklahoma, Alabama and Texas.
“即便在得克萨斯州这样的铁杆共和党地盘，总统本人的支持率也已大不如前。因此，如果下级选举形势不乐观，刻意淡化特朗普的名字、试图把选举焦点从他身上移开未必是明智之举，”得克萨斯州共和党参议员约翰·科宁指出，“通常来说，这种情况下应当把竞选重点放在地方议题上而非全国层面。可眼下柴油价格已突破每加仑6美元大关，汽油价格也居高不下，总统却仍执意把选举焦点集中在自己身上。”
“The president’s own numbers are not what they used to be, even in ruby-red Texas. And so making the election about him, pretending that his name is not on the ballot is not necessarily helpful if you’re downballot,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). “The usual argument is in circumstances like this you need to localize the race, not nationalize it. But the president seems determined to make the election about him at a time when you got $6-plus diesel prices and high gas prices,” he said.
科宁的席位正面临激烈争夺：得克萨斯州众议员、民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科正与共和党提名的州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿展开对决。
Cornyn's seat is up for grabs in the Lone Star State's heated Senate contest between Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Senate GOP nominee.
今年早些时候，帕克斯顿在初选中击败了科宁。据录音显示，上周他在对一群保守派捐赠者和游说团体讲话时称，9月份在达拉斯举行的、由总统出席的共和党中期选举大会导致他的民调支持率出现下滑。当被问及特朗普是否拖累了他的竞选时，帕克斯顿承认：“举办那次大会后，我们的支持率都下降了。目前来看，情况确实不妙。”
Paxton, who defeated Cornyn in a primary earlier this year, was recorded telling a group of conservative donors and lobbyists last week that September's GOP-held midterm convention in Dallas — which starred the president — hurt his poll numbers. Asked if Trump is a drag on his candidacy, Paxton acknowledged: “When we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
这段录音由《纽约时报》率先报道。不过，帕克斯顿的发言人则驳斥了“得克萨斯州总检察长认为特朗普拖累了其竞选”的说法，称其纯属“被篡改的无稽之谈”。近期的多项民调显示，塔拉里科的支持率领先于帕克斯顿；尽管在2024年总统选举中特朗普在得克萨斯州获得了56%的选票。根据马里斯特大学于9月17日至20日期间对1139名得克萨斯州选民进行的调查，该州仅有29%的无党派选民对特朗普抱有好感。
The audio recording was reported by The New York Times. A spokesperson for Paxton, however, disputed the notion that the Texas attorney general thinks Trump is weighing down his candidacy as “manipulated nonsense.”Several recent polls show Talarico leading Paxton, even though Trump carried Texas with 56 percent of the vote in the 2024 presidential election. A Marist University poll of 1,139ed voters in Texas conducted from Sept. 17-20 showed that only 29 percent of independents in the state have a favorable impression of the president.
同一项民调还显示，特朗普的整体支持率为41%，而塔拉里科以50%对44%的优势领先帕克斯顿6个百分点。
The same poll showed Trump with an overall approval rating of 41 percent and Talarico leading Paxton by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.