如今，我们已很难将约旦河西岸发生的一切仅仅视为以色列政府以安全为由实施的种种措施或反恐行动。从整体来看，这些措施的累积效应及其范围的不断扩大，实际上指向了一个更为宏大的政治与领土目标：重塑约旦河西岸的格局，制造既成事实以巩固以色列的控制权，进而事实上吞并该地区的大片土地；与此同时，巴勒斯坦人则承受着日益沉重的压力，被迫离开自己的家园。
It is increasingly difficult to regard what is happening in the West Bank as merely a series of measures that the Israeli government justifies on security grounds or as part of counterterrorism operations. Taken together, the cumulative pattern and expanding scope of these measures point to a broader political and territorial trajectory: one aimed at reshaping the West Bank, imposing new facts on the ground, entrenching Israeli control and advancing the de facto annexation of large parts of the territory while simultaneously subjecting Palestinians to mounting pressure that, directly or indirectly, pushes them from their land.
以色列官方报告、媒体报道及各类研究报告均证实，通过扩建定居点、没收土地、限制巴勒斯坦人的行动自由、控制水资源与牧场，以及频繁发动军事行动并导致约旦河西岸多地出现民众流离失所现象，这一趋势正日益加剧。
Israeli, journalistic and research reports have documented the intensification of this trajectory through settlement expansion, land confiscation, restrictions on Palestinian movement, control over water resources and grazing areas as well as military operations and repeated internal displacement in several parts of the West Bank.
单独来看，上述每项措施似乎都只是孤立的问题。但综合起来观察，它们则揭示了一个更为重大的动向：以色列正试图重新塑造约旦河西岸的地理与人口结构，从而破坏建立一个领土连贯且具备生存能力的巴勒斯坦国的可能性。因此，如今的问题已不再仅仅是“约旦河西岸正在发生什么”。
Considered individually, each of these measures may appear to be a separate issue. Viewed together, however, they reveal a more consequential development: an effort to re-engineer the geography and demography of the West Bank in ways that undermine the prospect of establishing a contiguous and viable Palestinian state. The question, therefore, is no longer simply what is happening in the West Bank.
更为紧迫的问题是：约旦、巴勒斯坦人民、阿拉伯世界以及国际社会该如何阻止这一趋势演变为不可逆转的现实。
The more urgent question is how can Jordan, the Palestinians, the Arab world and the international community prevent this trajectory from becoming a permanent reality.
约旦河谷：关键所在 在此背景下，约旦河谷具有极其重要的地位。这不仅源于其重要的地理与安全价值，还因为它对巴勒斯坦人民而言具有重要的农业与经济意义，更是其赖以生存的水资源来源。
Jordan Valley at the heart of the equation The Jordan Valley assumes exceptional importance in this context, not only because of its geographical and security significance but also because of its agricultural and economic importance and its water resources for the Palestinian people.
有关以色列修建一条名为“深红之线”的新隔离墙的报道值得约旦、阿拉伯世界及国际社会予以高度关注。该隔离墙全长约480公里（300英里），从戈兰高地一直延伸至红海。倘若该工程旨在将约旦河谷孤立起来，并使该地区83%的领土落入以色列控制之下，则其影响尤为重大。
Reports concerning the construction of a new Israeli barrier, referred to as the “Crimson Thread”, extending roughly 480km (300 miles) from the Golan Heights to the Red Sea, warrant serious Jordanian, Arab and international scrutiny, particularly if such a project is intended to isolate the Jordan Valley and place as much as 83 percent of its total area under Israeli control. Such a development could in effect sever the West Bank from Jordan and deprive Palestinians of one of their most important agricultural and water resources.
此举实际上可能切断约旦河西岸与约旦的联系，使巴勒斯坦人失去最重要的农业用地与水资源。
Borders, walls, roads and settlements cease to be merely physical infrastructure when they are combined with control over land and water.
当边界、隔离墙、道路及定居点与对土地及水资源的控制权相结合时，它们便不再仅仅是物理层面的基础设施，而是成为重塑政治与人口格局、削弱巴勒斯坦人留在自己土地上能力的工具。正是在这一层面上，巴勒斯坦问题与约旦的国家安全直接挂钩。
They become instruments for reshaping political and demographic geography and weakening the ability of Palestinians to remain on their land. This is precisely where the Palestinian issue intersects directly with Jordan’s national security.
约旦正面临一个全新的阶段：不能再将约旦河西岸的局势仅仅视为巴勒斯坦人的内部事务。从根本上讲，这是关乎约旦国家安全、地区稳定以及巴勒斯坦事业未来的重大问题。
Jordan faces a different phase Jordan cannot treat developments in the West Bank as an exclusively Palestinian matter. At its core, this is an issue of Jordanian national security, regional stability and the future of the Palestinian cause.
由于地理、历史及地理位置的邻近性，约旦河西岸在地理或人口结构上的任何根本性变化都必然对约旦产生直接影响。倘若最终导致大规模强制流离失所，正如阿卜杜拉二世国王多次强调的那样，这种情况无异于对约旦宣战。
Any fundamental change to the geographical or demographic reality of the West Bank will inevitably carry direct consequences for Jordan because of geography, history and proximity. And if the eventual outcome is forced displacement, then, as King Abdullah II has repeatedly made clear, such a scenario would amount to a declaration of war on Jordan.
因此，现阶段约旦应采取积极主动的政策：提前预判各种可能情形，并在政治、外交、经济及安全层面做好应对准备。首要任务是维护约旦的国家统一——这是约旦的第一道防线。
The policy required of Jordan at this stage, therefore, must be proactive: one that anticipates possible scenarios and prepares for them politically, diplomatically, economically and in security terms. First: Protect Jordanian national unity Jordan’s first line of defence is its national unity.
现阶段，必须强化公民意识与国家观念，巩固约旦民众之间的完全平等，坚决抵制任何基于出身、地域或血统制造分裂的言论与行为。
At this stage, it is essential to strengthen the concepts of citizenship and the state, consolidate full equality among Jordanians, and reject any discourse or practice that creates divisions on the basis of origin, region or roots.
巴勒斯坦问题始终应属于民族、阿拉伯及人道主义事业范畴，绝不容许其成为引发约旦社会分裂的诱因。
The Palestinian cause must remain a national, Arab and humanitarian cause. It must not be allowed to become a source of division within Jordanian society.
国家与社会均有责任共同抵制仇恨言论与煽动行为，公平公正地执行法律，保护国家社会结构免受外部势力利用地区动荡来挑拨约旦民众关系的图谋影响。
Responsibility falls on both the state and society to confront hate speech and incitement, apply the law equally and fairly, and protect the national fabric from attempts to exploit regional turmoil to sow division among Jordanians.
约旦必须竭力避免的最严重后果，便是让冲突蔓延至国内。无论具有何种出身背景的约旦民众——包括拥有约旦或巴勒斯坦血统者——之间的关系绝不能沦为可被国内外企图制造不和者利用的脆弱裂痕。
One of the gravest outcomes Jordan must prevent is the transfer of the conflict into its own domestic sphere. Relations among Jordanians of different origins, including those of Jordanian and Palestinian heritage, must never become a vulnerable fault line through which those seeking discord, whether from within the country or from abroad, can operate.
因此，民族团结绝不仅仅是一种社会价值观，更是约旦国家安全体系中不可或缺的组成部分。
National unity, therefore, is not merely a social value. It is an integral component of Jordan’s national security architecture.
第二：从抗议式外交转向施压与适度行动相结合的外交模式。约旦已积累了可观的国际信誉与外交资源，但当前阶段仍需进一步丰富可用的外交手段。
Second: Move from diplomacy of protest to diplomacy of pressure and proportionate action Jordan has accumulated considerable international credibility and diplomatic capital. The present phase, however, requires Jordan to expand the tools at its disposal.
仅仅谴责定居点建设、反对领土吞并或警示人口迁移现象已远远不够。当前亟需构建一个由阿拉伯国家、伊斯兰国家及国际社会共同参与的外交阵线，将各项政治立场切实转化为具体行动。约旦应与巴勒斯坦及阿拉伯、伊斯兰国家协同努力：动员所有反对领土吞并与定居点扩张的国家；支持国际层面的法律行动；推动实施切实有效的措施与制裁，对象不仅涵盖定居点本身，还应包括那些纵容、助长此类行为的国家政策；系统记录各类违规行为。
It is no longer sufficient simply to condemn settlement activity, reject annexation or warn against displacement. What is needed is an Arab, Islamic and international diplomatic front capable of translating political positions into practical measures. In coordination with Palestine and Arab and Islamic states, Jordan should work to: Mobilise countries that reject annexation and settlement expansion. Support international legal action. Push for concrete measures and sanctions not only against settlements but also against state policies that enable and encourage them.
更有策略地利用阿拉伯国家与有影响力国家之间的政治和经济关系，扩大与在对以色列占领持坚定反对立场国家的经济合作，同时重新调整与仍不愿就以色列政策明确表态的国家的接触方式。建立一个能够阻止以武力强行造成不可逆转既成事实的国际联盟。
Systematically document violations. Use Arab political and economic relations with influential states more strategically, expanding economic cooperation with countries that adopt firm positions against the Israeli occupation while recalibrating engagement with those that remain reluctant to take clear positions towards Israeli policies. Build an international coalition capable of preventing the imposition of irreversible facts by force.
将俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争作为参照颇具启发。当俄罗斯占领乌克兰大片领土时，制裁并未局限于被占领的领土；制裁对象是俄罗斯自身。因此，问题是：为什么在别处应适用不同的标准？
A comparison with Russia’s war in Ukraine is instructive. When Russia occupied large areas of Ukrainian territory, sanctions were not confined to the territories under occupation; they were imposed on Russia itself. The question, therefore, is why a different standard should apply elsewhere.
国际社区并不缺少决议或声明。它所缺乏的是将政治意愿转化为迫使违反国际法者付出切实代价的能力。
The international community does not lack resolutions or statements. What it lacks is the conversion of political will into a tangible cost for those who violate international law.
第三：设立一个旨在增强巴勒斯坦韧性的阿拉伯和伊斯兰基金。如果目标是防止巴勒斯坦人流离失所，并使其能够留在自己的土地上，财政支持就必须成为一项持续性的战略政策，而不是与危机时刻挂钩的阶段性援助。
Third: Establish an Arab and Islamic fund for Palestinian resilience If the objective is to prevent displacement and enable Palestinians to remain on their land, financial support must become a sustained strategic policy rather than seasonal assistance tied to moments of crisis.
一种方案是设立阿拉伯、伊斯兰及国际基金，专门用于增强巴勒斯坦人的韧性，负责资助约旦河西岸和加沙的具体项目，包括：保护面临被没收威胁的土地。支持农民。开发水资源和灌溉网络。援助受影响家庭。为脆弱地区的住房项目提供资金。支持教育和医疗服务。援助市政机构和地方议会。为因以色列措施而失业的家庭提供其他收入来源。韧性不仅仅是政治口号，更是物质现实。
One option would be to establish an Arab, Islamic and international fund dedicated to strengthening Palestinian resilience with a mandate to finance specific projects in the West Bank and Gaza, including: Protecting land threatened with confiscation. Supporting farmers. Developing water resources and irrigation networks. Assisting affected families. Financing housing projects in vulnerable areas. Supporting education and health services. Assisting municipalities and local councils. Providing alternative sources of income to families who have lost employment as a result of Israeli measures. Resilience is not merely a political slogan. It is a material reality.
每一个坚守在自己土地上的巴勒斯坦家庭、每一个继续耕种的农民，以及每一个仍能获取水源的村庄，都在为防止民众流离失所作出贡献。
Every Palestinian family who remains on its land, every farmer who continues to cultivate his fields and every village that retains access to its water resources represents part of the effort to prevent displacement. Fourth: Treat the Jordan Valley as a Jordanian national security issue Jordan should address developments in the Jordan Valley as a permanent strategic file.
第四：将约旦河谷视为约旦的国家安全问题。约旦应将约旦河谷的局势发展视为一项长期战略议题来加以应对。应设立专门的约旦机制以实施监测：定居点扩张情况；土地没收情况；道路、隔离墙及屏障的修建情况；人口结构变化；水资源控制权状况；人口流动与流离失所现象；任何可能永久改变现状的措施。
A specialised Jordanian mechanism should be established to monitor: Settlement expansion. Land confiscation. The construction of roads, barriers and walls. Demographic changes. Control over water resources. Population movements and displacement. Any measures that could permanently alter the status quo.
上述各类动态均需通过地图、卫星图像、统计数据及官方记录予以记录，以便约旦能够形成完整的档案资料，用于在国际层面开展政治与法律层面的应对工作。
These developments should be documented through maps, satellite imagery, statistics and official records so Jordan maintains a comprehensive dossier that can be used politically and legally before the international community.
土地争夺并非仅靠武力决定，文档记录、地图、法律以及以事实为依据、具有权威性的情况说明同样起着关键作用。
Struggles over land are not determined by force alone. They are also shaped by documentation, maps, law and the ability to present an authoritative, evidence-based account of what is happening.
第五：强化约旦的国家防御体系。提升约旦维护国家安全、边境稳定及国家利益的能力是一项不可或缺的任务。
Fifth: Strengthen Jordan’s national defence architecture Strengthening Jordan’s ability to protect its security, borders and national interests is not optional.
约旦虽资源有限，但拥有丰富的人力与制度经验。该国可进一步完善国家防御、民防及危机管理体系。
Jordan is a country with limited resources, but it possesses significant human and institutional expertise. It can further develop an advanced national defence, civil protection and crisis-management architecture.
具体措施可包括：强化国民服役与培训计划、提升民防应急能力、保护关键基础设施、加强网络安全与边境管控，以及完善灾害与应急管理机制。
This could include strengthening national service and training programmes, enhancing civil defence preparedness, protecting critical infrastructure, reinforcing cybersecurity and border security, and improving disaster and emergency management.
此外，约旦还可借助相关国家机构的指导，通过系统化的国家计划来发挥退役军人的丰富经验，从而全面提升国家的整体防御能力。
Jordan could also draw on the extensive experience of retired military personnel through structured national programmes under the supervision of appropriate state institutions, thereby strengthening the country’s overall defensive readiness.
约旦所需的力量，是威慑、保护与备战的力量，而非冲动地走向一场未经深思熟虑的对抗。
The strength Jordan requires is the strength of deterrence, protection and preparedness, not an impulse towards an ill-considered confrontation.
第六：防止约旦沦为“替代家园” 这一问题必须始终处于约旦战略核算的核心位置。
Sixth: Prevent Jordan from becoming an “alternative homeland” This issue must remain at the centre of Jordanian strategic calculations.
任何直接或间接导致约旦河西岸人口流失、或推动大量巴勒斯坦人涌向约旦的项目，绝不仅仅是一个人道主义问题。这将给王国带来深远的政治、安全与人口结构后果。
Any project that directly or indirectly leads to the depopulation of the West Bank or pushes large numbers of Palestinians towards Jordan is not merely a humanitarian question. It would carry profound political, security and demographic consequences for the kingdom.
因此，约旦的立场必须保持明确无误：解决巴勒斯坦问题不能以牺牲约旦利益为代价；驱逐离散不是政治解决方案；约旦也不是巴勒斯坦人民的替代家园。
Jordan’s position, therefore, must remain unequivocal: Resolving the Palestinian question cannot come at Jordan’s expense; displacement is not a political solution; and Jordan is not an alternative homeland for the Palestinian people.
同时，约旦必须保持对任何强制性事态发展作出回应时的人道主义与法律层面，以确保对驱逐的反对不转化为平民的进一步苦难。
At the same time, Jordan must preserve the humanitarian and legal dimensions of its response to any forced developments, so that opposition to displacement does not translate into further suffering for civilians.