共和党人正面临艰难的政治环境，这大大提升了民主党赢得参议院控制权的希望，也使得竞选焦点进一步向保守派势力较强的地区转移。这已不是什么秘密。但密西西比州呢？
It’s no secret Republicans are facing a difficult political environment that has boosted Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate and expanded the battleground map deeper into conservative territory. But Mississippi?
在本轮竞选周期伊始，即便是最乐观的民主党人也对在这个铁定属于共和党的州展开激烈角逐不抱希望。然而如今，选民对经济状况的担忧日益加深，对唐纳德·特朗普总统的评价也大幅下滑。在密西西比州民主党人的再三求助下，人们开始认为民主党候选人斯科特·科洛姆确实有机会在11月击败共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯。
Even the most optimistic Democrats scoffed at the idea of a competitive race in the ruby-red state going into this campaign cycle. But voters’ anxiety about the economy has deepened, their opinions of President Donald Trump have tanked, and appeals for help from Mississippi Democrats have elevated the idea that Democrat Scott Colom has a chance to oust GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in November.
如今，众多知名民主党人士纷纷造访这个共和党的大本营，敦促党内高层向科洛姆的竞选活动拨出本就有限的资金，期望能拿下这个四十多年来从未选出过民主党参议员的州。
Now high-profile Democrats are paying visits to the Republican bastion and urging party bosses to send scarce financial resources to Colom’s campaign, hoping to put into play a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in more than four decades.
“我认为他确实有胜算，”2020年在佐治亚州成功拿下共和党地盘的民主党参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克说道，“我们应当在那里投入更多资金。”尽管密西西比州依旧是共和党占绝对优势的州，但科洛姆的竞选表现却出人意料地强劲。这位当地地方检察官还获得了前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉奇以及新泽西州参议员科里·布克等知名民主党人士的支持；布克定于周五前往密西西比州与科洛姆共同开展竞选活动。
“I think he’s got a real shot,” said Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, an early supporter who flipped a red seat in Georgia in 2020. “We should spend more money there.”Although Mississippi remains a heavily Republican state, Colom has run a surprisingly competitive campaign. The local district attorney has gotten endorsements from other prominent Democrats such as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who’s scheduled to campaign with Colom on Friday in Mississippi.
本周，海德-史密斯开始播放攻击科洛姆的广告，这一举动普遍被视为她开始认真对待这场竞选的信号。
Hyde-Smith this week began airing ads attacking Colom, generally seen as a sign she’s taking the race seriously.
民主党人认为这位参议员确实有理由担忧。不少人将密西西比州视为下一个“佐治亚州”——一个拥有大量非裔美国人口的潜在“摇摆州”；只要能成功动员这些选民，民主党候选人便有可能在该州具备竞争力。
Democrats believe the senator has reason to worry. Some see Mississippi as the next Georgia, a sleeper purple state with a large African American population that — if engaged and motivated — can help make Democratic candidates competitive there.
民主党人还认为，海德-史密斯尤其容易受到攻击，因为她支持特朗普的一系列政策，这些政策挤压了美国人的生存空间，包括削减医疗补助计划（Medicaid）和补充营养援助计划（SNAP）的食品援助、征收关税以及发动伊朗战争。伊朗战争已使燃料和化肥成本飙升，波及密西西比州及全国其他地区的农民。
Democrats also believe Hyde-Smith to be particularly vulnerable due to her support for Trump policies that have squeezed Americans, including cuts to Medicaid and SNAP food assistance, tariffs and the Iran war, which has spiked fuel and fertilizer costs for farmers in Mississippi and elsewhere around the country.
障碍当然存在。其中一项是如何提高密西西比州黑人选民的投票率；他们长期遭受歧视，并在投票方面面临重重障碍。共和党人今年试图重新划分该州第2国会选区，以取消该州唯一一个黑人占多数的选区，并击败长期任职的民主党众议员本尼·汤普森。最高法院本月挫败了这一企图，民主党人认为，这将适得其反，并有利于科洛姆的竞选活动。
There are certainly obstacles. One is the question of turning out Black voters in Mississippi, who have faced historic discrimination and barriers to the ballot box. Republicans this year sought to redraw the state’s 2nd Congressional District to eliminate the state’s only majority-Black district and unseat longtime Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson. The Supreme Court foiled that effort this month, and Democrats believe it will backfire to the benefit of Colom’s campaign.
“如果这能显著提高密西西比州黑人选民的投票率，而他目前又只落后几个百分点，那就成了——差距已经抹平，你就进入决胜阶段了。”参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯（罗得岛州民主党）说。
“If that increases Mississippi’s Black voter turnout significantly, and if he’s only just a few points back, boom — you’ve now closed the gap, and you’re in the game,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) said.
科洛姆的竞选活动还使海德-史密斯2023年阻止科洛姆获得密西西比州联邦法官终身任命的决定成为焦点。时任总统乔·拜登提名科洛姆担任该职，但海德-史密斯拒绝批准这一人选，实际上使他的提名彻底搁浅。
Colom’s campaign has also put a spotlight on Hyde-Smith’s decision in 2023 to block Colom from receiving a lifetime appointment to a federal judgeship in Mississippi. Then-President Joe Biden nominated Colom to the post, but Hyde-Smith refused to approve the pick, which effectively killed his nomination.
共和党人认为民主党人不过是在做白日梦。就目前而言，这位现任参议员在这场竞选中占据压倒性优势。2024年，特朗普以23个百分点的优势赢下密西西比州，而且当地共和党人的人数也远多于民主党人。即使该党正在得克萨斯州、艾奥瓦州、俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和堪萨斯州等其他红州采取守势，密西西比州共和党人仍有信心保住这个席位。
Republicans think Democrats are dreaming. For now, the incumbent senator is overwhelmingly favored in the race. Trump won the state by 23 percentage points in 2024, anded Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats there. Mississippi Republicans are also confident they’ll retain the seat even as the party plays defense in other red states, including Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska and Kansas.
“他们总会有一线机会，但我们会赢。”参议员罗杰·威克（密西西比州共和党）周三谈及民主党的胜算时说。
“They always have a chance, but we’re going to win,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi) said of the Democratic odds on Wednesday.
虽然民主党阵营在夏季时在资金方面占据优势，但如今共和党及其附属的超级政治行动委员会在全国范围内的投入已超过民主党的参议院候选人。民主党面临的资金短缺问题因需要在各地投入资金而愈发严重，最近他们便不得不在竞争激烈的德克萨斯州参议院选举上加大投入。
While Democratic campaigns held a financial advantage over the summer, Republicans and their affiliated super PACs are now outspending Democratic Senate candidates all over the country. Democrats’ cash crunch is compounded by pressure to invest everywhere, including most recently in the battleground Texas Senate race.
在密西西比州，全国层面的民主党人士及其附属超级政治行动委员会尚未投入资源，但已向捐款人发出呼吁，希望他们慷慨解囊。据一位熟悉情况的人士向《华盛顿太阳报》透露，本月早些时候，担任民主党参议院竞选委员会主席的纽约州民主党参议员克尔斯滕·吉尔布兰德在纽约市为科洛姆举办了一场募款活动。该人士还称，吉尔布兰德已向科洛姆的竞选活动捐出了最高限额的资金。
In Mississippi, national Democrats and their affiliated super PACs haven’t yet committed resources, but they are signaling to donors to open their wallets. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, headlined an event for Colom in New York City earlier this month, a source familiar with the event told The Sun. The source also said that Gillibrand has maxed out her contributions to Colom’s campaign.
科洛姆认为，民主党不向密西西比州投入资源是个错误决定，因为如今这样做也能提升未来赢得该州席位的可能性。
Colom argues Democrats are making a mistake by not investing in Mississippi since doing so now could also bolster their chances of flipping the seat in the future.
“我们之所以在密西西比州未能获胜，是因为我们根本没努力去争取，”他在接受《华盛顿太阳报》采访时说道，“该州38%的人口是非裔美国人选民，其中90%都支持民主党。此外，平均至少有15%的白人选民也会投票给民主党。我们只需要再争取到10%的白人选民即可。”“如果连这样的州都争取不到，那就该好好反思一下了：问题出在哪里？我们的宣传信息有什么问题？我们的竞选策略又有什么问题？”他补充道。
“We’ve not won in Mississippi because we’re not trying,” he told The Washington Sun in an interview. “You got 38% of the population African American voters, 90% who are Democrat. Got 15% at minimum, on average, white voters who are gonna vote Democrat. You only need to get 10[%] more of the white voters.”“If you can’t compete in a state like that, you need to ask yourself, what’s wrong with you? Right? Like, what is wrong with your message? What is wrong with your strategy?’ he said.
“看看这些数据吧，”他说道，“数据证明这是可行的，我们至今都没去尝试，实在是可耻。”
“Look at the math,” he said. “The math is why it’s possible, and it’s just shameful that we haven’t been trying.”