韩国对于筹划已久的阿拉斯加液化天然气项目持谨慎态度。尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将该项目称作韩国计划在美国实施的2000亿美元投资计划的一部分。
South Korea is taking a cautious approach to the long-planned Alaska liquefied natural gas project, despite U.S. President Donald Trump touting it as part of Seoul's $200 billion investment package in the U.S. Trump said late Wednesday that the two countries had agreed to work on the $50 billion project, but South Korean President Lee Jae Myung pushed back, saying South Korea's participation would hinge on its financial viability and legal compliance.
特朗普周三晚些时候称，两国已就这一价值500亿美元的项目达成合作共识，但韩国总统李在明则表示，韩国的参与与否将取决于项目的经济可行性及是否符合相关法律要求。
Alaska LNG situation At the heart of the debate is the scale and cost of getting Alaska's vast natural gas resources to overseas buyers.
阿拉斯加液化天然气项目的核心争议点在于如何将阿拉斯加丰富的天然气资源以经济高效的方式输送给海外买家。
The Alaska LNG project seeks to transport natural gas through an approximately 800-mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay in Alaska's North Slope to an LNG facility in Nikiski in the south, according to the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation.
据阿拉斯加天然气管道开发公司介绍，该项目计划修建一条长约800英里的管道，将天然气从阿拉斯加北坡的普拉德霍湾输送至南部的尼基斯基液化天然气处理厂。
The integrated project, which would have capacity to produce 20 million metric tons of LNG annually, is estimated to cost between $44.5 billion and $54.5 billion, according to Go Katayama, principal insight analyst at Kpler.
据Kpler公司的首席分析师片山刚介绍，这一综合性项目预计年产能可达2000万吨液化天然气，其建设成本预计在445亿至545亿美元之间。韩国为何持谨慎态度？
Why is South Korea cautious? Shipping LNG from Nikiski to South Korea would take roughly seven to nine days, compared with around 20 to 30 days from the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to Seung Hoon Yoo, professor at the Department of Future Energy Convergence at Seoul National University of Science and Technology.
首尔科学技术大学未来能源融合系教授柳承勋指出，从尼基斯基向韩国运输液化天然气仅需7至9天，而从美国墨西哥湾沿岸运输则需20至30天。这条更短的运输路线不仅能大幅降低运输成本，还能避开霍尔木兹海峡等地缘政治风险较高的通道。
The shorter route could significantly reduce transportation costs and also avoids geopolitical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Yoo said. But those savings come up against the cost of building a roughly 1,300-kilometer pipeline from Alaska's North Slope to the liquefaction terminal in the south.
不过，这些成本节约效果却要被修建一条从阿拉斯加北坡通往南部液化处理厂的约1300公里长管道所需的高昂费用所抵消。
"The economics of Alaska LNG is expensive given the long pipeline versus other LNG projects," said Kit Ling Wong, head of business intelligence for Asia Pacific at Poten & Partners.
“与其他液化天然气项目相比，考虑到管道长度因素，阿拉斯加液化天然气项目的建设成本相当高昂，”波滕咨询公司亚太区商业情报主管黄洁玲说道，“它不会成为韩国最便宜的液化天然气供应来源。”她指出，来自澳大利亚、美国和卡塔尔的液化天然气供应价格都会更低。虽然阿拉斯加至韩国的运输距离较短有一定优势，但该项目的资本支出总额足以用于建设三个美国墨西哥湾地区的液化天然气项目。
"It will not be the cheapest supply for South Korea." Wong said LNG supplies from Australia, the U.S. and Qatar would all be cheaper. While Alaska's shorter shipping distance helps, she said the project's overall capex can build three U.S. Gulf projects.
对于韩国买家而言，关键问题在于这条更短的运输路线能否带来比加拿大液化天然气项目、美国墨西哥湾沿岸及中东地区的供应更具价格竞争力的到岸价，Kpler公司的片山说道。
For South Korean buyers, the key question is whether the shorter route can translate into a competitive landed LNG price compared with alternatives such as LNG Canada, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Middle Eastern supply, Kpler's Katayama said.
韩国持谨慎态度也反映出对成本超支风险的担忧以及长期液化天然气需求的不确定性。柳氏指出，该项目漫长的建设周期与复杂的地形可能推高成本，而需求增长放缓则可能导致买家被迫签署为期20年甚至更久的“照付不议”合同。
South Korea's caution also reflects the risk of cost overruns and uncertainty over long-term LNG demand. The project's lengthy construction timeline and challenging terrain could push costs higher, while slowing demand could leave buyers locked into take-or-pay contracts lasting 20 years or more, Yoo said.
片山同样表示，预计韩国电力行业对天然气的需求将出现下滑，这使得买家在签署新的长期液化天然气采购协议时更加审慎。
Katayama similarly said an expected decline in South Korea's gas demand from the power sector is making buyers more selective about taking on additional long-term LNG commitments.
柳氏还指出，韩国必须在与美国的战略及贸易关系与该项目的商业价值之间寻求平衡。他表示，坚持以商业可行性为首要考量，有助于韩国政府保留谈判筹码，从而争取到美国提供的更多保障或财政支持。还有哪些事项需要落实？
South Korea also has to balance its strategic and trade relationship with the U.S. against the project's commercial merits, Yoo said. Maintaining its focus on commercial viability could help Seoul retain negotiating leverage to seek additional U.S. guarantees or financial support, he added. What still needs to happen?
片山指出，对韩国买家与投资者而言，最终的检验标准是在计入原料气、管道建设、液化加工、融资、税收及运输成本后，阿拉斯加液化天然气的实际到岸价格。
For South Korean buyers and investors, the ultimate test will be the landed cost of Alaska LNG after accounting for feedgas, pipeline, liquefaction, financing, taxation and shipping costs, Katayama said.
他补充道，项目财政框架的明确性、融资与建设风险的可控性、审批流程的顺畅程度，以及美国政府提供的支持力度，同样至关重要。
Greater certainty around the project's fiscal framework, financing, construction and permitting risks, as well as the extent of U.S. government support, will also be important, he added.
韩国企业对该项目的参与目前仍处于初步阶段。据片山介绍，浦项国际已签署一份不具法律约束力的协议，内容涉及未来20年内每年可能采购100万公吨液化天然气，以及为管道建设提供钢材。他表示，该协议与韩国政府可能作出的任何大规模投资承诺并无关联。
South Korean commercial involvement in the project remains preliminary. POSCO International has a non-binding agreement covering potential purchases of 1 million metric tons of LNG annually for 20 years as well as steel supply for the pipeline, according to Katayama. He said that the agreement is separate from any broader South Korean government investment commitment.
柳俊亨补充道，美国政府提供的税收优惠与财政援助同样至关重要；此外，韩国企业也应获得参与该项目建设、工程设计、设备供应及液化天然气运输的机会，而不应仅局限于作为天然气采购方。
Additional U.S. government support, including tax incentives and financial assistance, would also be important, along with opportunities for South Korean companies to participate in the project's construction, engineering, equipment supply and LNG shipping, rather than serving solely as LNG buyers, Yoo added.
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