全球债券市场正陷入动荡：近期，美国、英国、法国及德国的国债均承受着巨大的抛售压力。如今，瑞银投资银行指出，欧洲主权债务市场又出现了一个新的压力点。瑞银投资银行欧洲利率策略主管莱诺特·德博克表示，他已平仓此前持有的做空法国国债的头寸，转而押注意大利将成为下一个政府债务遭遇持续抛售压力的国家——这些债务即所谓的意大利十年期国债（BTPs）。
Global bond markets are in turmoil, with U.S., U.K., French and German government debt all coming under heavy selling pressure in recent days — and now UBS Investment Bank sees a new pressure point in Europe's sovereign debt space. Reinout de Bock, head of European rates strategy at UBS Investment Bank, said he has closed a bearish position against French bonds and unveiled a new wager that Italy will be the next country to see its government debt — known as BTPs — come under sustained selling pressure.
“今天上午，我建立了做空意大利十年期国债、同时做多德国十年期国债的头寸，”德博克于周五在CNBC的《Squawk Box Europe》节目中说道。截至伦敦时间中午12点20分（美国东部时间上午7点20分），意大利十年期国债收益率基本维持在4.69%的水平；不过周四该收益率一度升至2023年以来的最高点。与此同时，德国十年期国债收益率在周五上午下跌逾10个基点，降至3.414%。
"This morning, I opened a short BTP Italy versus bunds," de Bock told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday. Yields on 10-year Italian BTPs were largely steady at 4.69% by 12:20 p.m. London time (7:20 a.m. ET), after rising to their highest level since 2023 during Thursday's session. Meanwhile, Germany's 10-year Bund yield slid more than 10 basis points to 3.414% on Friday morning. That pushed the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds — widely viewed as Europe's safest debt and a key barometer of eurozone borrowing risk — to around 127 basis points.
这一变动使得意大利十年期国债与德国十年期国债之间的收益率差扩大至约127个基点——后者被视为欧洲最安全的债务品种，也是衡量欧元区借贷风险的关键指标。德博克指出：“目前最安全的资产仍是德国国债。我们需要警惕利率市场或金融行业中那些较为脆弱、抗风险能力较弱的环节出现进一步恶化的情况。我认为随着收益率持续走高，尽管意大利已推行多项改革措施，市场对该国的担忧情绪仍可能随之加剧。”
"The safest asset is still the Bund here, and you want to worry about further escalation in parts of the rates market or the financial sector that are vulnerable, that are maybe weaker links," de Bock said. "I think Italy maybe will catch up, and people will get more concerned about Italy as well at these higher yields, despite a lot of reforms that have been done in Italy." IT10Y 5D mountain Italian 10-year BTPs.
周四，美国基准十年期国债收益率升至2002年以来的最高水平。在大西洋彼岸，英国成为首个长期国债收益率突破6%的七国集团成员国，其三十年期国债收益率更是达到1998年以来的最高水平。法国十年期国债收益率则飙升至4.9%，创下2002年7月以来的新高，其季度涨幅也创下近四十年来之最。
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit its highest level since 2002 on Thursday. Across the Atlantic, the U.K. became the first G7 nation to see yields on its longer-dated debt reach 6%, with the 30-year Gilt yield topping levels last seen in 1998. France's 10-year OAT yield surged to 4.9%, reaching its highest level since July 2002, and posting its biggest quarterly rise in almost forty years.
“我们正身处一个具有历史意义的时期，”德博克说道。他提到能源及大宗商品市场的价格风险，以及经济增长的韧性问题。“这两大因素正共同作用，有可能引发一次历史性的价格重新调整，使收益率水平回归到21世纪初的水平。”
"We live in historic times," de Bock said, pointing both to price risks across energy and commodities markets, as well as questions over growth resilience. "These two things are now coming together to potentially historic repricing, going back to the levels in yields of the 2000s."