你刚刚离开学校。你的未来是什么？我认识一位物理学毕业生，正在制作纯白白漆;一位30岁的年轻人住在童年的卧室里，感觉自己很失败;布莱斯的一个小伙子，因为没有公交车而拒绝了15英里外的工作，而对于他这个年龄的年轻人来说，汽车保险每年近2，000英镑。英国的年轻人是我们最大的资源，我们让他们失望，因为资本市场不会将投资分配到需要的地方。在会议演讲中说出“希望”听起来很温暖。但人们需要一个计划。
You’ve just left school. What’s your future? I know a physics graduate making flat whites; a 30-year-old living in his childhood bedroom who feels like a failure; a lad in Blyth who turned down a job 15 miles away because there’s no bus, and for young people his age car insurance is almost £2,000 a year. Britain’s young people are our greatest resource, and we are failing them because capital markets won’t allocate investment where it is needed. Saying “hope” in a conference speech sounds warm. But people need a plan.
任何政府的首要任务都是人民的安全。金融市场正在发出价格信号，表明人工智能的繁荣和股票回购比清洁能源或温暖家园更重要。我们资助航空母舰和炮弹。但风力涡轮机和议会大厦也是我们国家安全的一部分。想象一下，一个拥有20年投资计划的国家，拥有翻新的房屋和快速的交通连接，无处可及。这是一个充满年轻人自豪工作潜力的未来。
The first priority of any government is the security of its people. Financial markets are sending price signals that AI booms and share buybacks are more important than clean energy or warm homes. We fund aircraft carriers and artillery shells. But wind turbines and council houses are part of our national security, too. Imagine a country with a 20-year investment plan, with retrofitted homes and fast transport connections that leave nowhere behind. That’s a future filled with the potential of proud work for young people.
但英国有四个字：“我们负担不起。”各国政府称这种心态为“谨慎”。我对此的回应是“人质国家”，这是我修复英国的计划。这是一份报告，列出了如何筹集资金，展示了我们需要建设什么，并追踪了为什么它会让我们更加繁荣和有弹性。我加入绿党是为了实现这一愿景。随着党代会临近，我希望这将成为我们在下次选举中战斗的官方绿党政策。
But four words run Britain: “We can’t afford it.”Governments call this mindset “prudence”. My response to it is Hostage Nation, my plan to fix Britain. This is a report that lays out how to source the finance, shows what we need to build – and tracks why it would make us more prosperous and resilient. I joined the Green party to achieve this vision. As we approach the party conference, I hope this will become official Green policy that we’ll fight the next election on.
自金融危机爆发以来，已有九套财政规则被打破甚至废弃。前英格兰银行首席经济学家安迪·霍尔丹指出，当前的财政规则“远非最优；事实上，我认为它们愚蠢至极”。英国财政研究所则在2024年表示，依据财政空间预测来调整政策“简直是疯狂之举”。倘若我们其实并非债券市场的“人质”呢？倘若政客们患上了“斯德哥尔摩综合征”呢？
Nine sets of fiscal rules have been broken and abandoned since the financial crash. Andy Haldane, a former chief economist of the Bank of England, said current fiscal rules were “far from optimal; in fact I’d go as far as to say silly”. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said in 2024 that changing policy based on fiscal headroom projections was “almost literally mad”. What if we’re not really hostages to the bond market? What if politicians have got Stockholm syndrome instead?
债券市场不过是复杂的“博彩场所”罢了。这就是其商业模式：预测未来走向并据此定价。每当美联储加息或霍尔木兹海峡关闭，相关价格便会随之变动。为何我们要让这些“庄家”来决定是否修建铁路呢？若不给一个国家任何建设机会，那些生活艰难的民众便会寻找替罪羊。
Bond markets are just complex betting shops. That’s their business model: guess the future, and price accordingly. That price changes when the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates or the strait of Hormuz closes. Why do we let bookies decide whether we build railway lines? Give a country nothing to build and struggling people will find someone to blame.
企业最需要的其实是客户，而非减税或宽松的监管环境。我曾询问一家全球性工程企业的首席执行官是否愿意投资绿色氢能产业。他回答道：“除非能确保未来20年都有稳定销路，否则我不会投入5亿美元来建设工厂、招募员工。”然而没有任何政府传递出这样的信号。
Businesses want customers more than they want tax cuts or light-touch regulation. I once asked the chief executive of a global engineering firm if he would invest in green hydrogen. “I’m not investing half a billion in a plant and staff unless I can sell it for 20 years,” he said. No government gave that signal.
只要创造需求，供应链自然会自行运转。我在担任泰恩北部联合行政区行政长官期间，将当地成人培训机构的合同期限从一年延长至三年。在预算实际水平不变的情况下，每年可提供的就业培训名额便从2.2万个增加到了3.5万个。这就是政策确定性的作用所在。
Provide demand, and supply chains will organise themselves. When I was mayor of the North of Tyne combined authority, I moved our adult training providers from one-year to rolling three-year contracts. Employment training places rose from 22,000 to 35,000 a year on the same real-terms budget. That’s what certainty brings.
市场固然能提供理发店和汉堡车，却无法修建水库。唯有国家才有能力确保未来20年内基础设施项目能够获得订单。公共规划必须以公有制为基础。我们的需求其实很多：每年建造10万套公共住房；建设配备储能系统的全可再生能源体系；发展清洁交通；为所有住宅加装隔热层；打造一个比私家车更便宜、更便捷且由公交与火车构成的统一交通网络；还要改造商业街，建设体育中心与温馨的青少年活动中心——这就是乔治·蒙比奥特所说的“公共奢侈品”。
Markets are great at providing barber shops and burger vans, but markets don’t build reservoirs. The only organisation that can guarantee orders for infrastructure 20 years from now is the state. Public ownership is a must for public planning. We’re not short of need: 100,000 council homes a year; fully renewable energy with a storage grid; clean transport; insulating every home; buses and trains that run as one network and are cheaper and more convenient than cars; regenerated high streets with sports centres and warm youth clubs. What George Monbiot calls public luxury.
我们可以通过非市场化融资方式来筹集资金。政府储蓄银行“国家储蓄与投资银行”（前身为邮政储蓄银行）已运营160余年，目前有2400万民众在使用该服务。政府可以推出用于国家基础设施建设的个人储蓄账户，为民众投资公共事业提供公平且安全的回报渠道。国债市场依然照常运作，而这一渠道不受关税波动与国际冲突的影响。迄今为止，还没有哪家对冲基金敢于做空英国的优质债券。
We can fund it with off-market finance. The government savings bank National Savings and Investments (originally the Post Office Savings Bank) has been going for more than 160 years, and 24 million of us use it. The government could offer savers national infrastructure Isas – a fair, safe return for investment in public works. The gilt market carries on; this is a separate channel insulated from tariff antics and international conflicts. No hedge fund has ever shorted a premium bond.
目前英国每年有700亿英镑投入现金类个人储蓄账户，各类养老基金规模更是超过2万亿英镑，但其中仅有不到5%的资金投向了英国本土企业。这两类储蓄账户均享有税收优惠。如果你想投资硅谷企业进行投机，那是你的自由；但税收优惠理应留给那些有助于建设英国的储蓄行为。
We invest £70bn a year in cash Isas. Our pension pools hold more than £2tn, yet less than 5% is invested in British firms. There is tax relief on both. If you want to speculate on Silicon Valley, that’s your right. But tax subsidies should be reserved for savings that build Britain.
在基础设施建设方面，国家完全有能力与私人资本一较高下。对企业而言，工资属于成本支出；但对国家而言，工资支出却能减少社会福利开支。国家每征收1英镑的税款，最终能收回0.4英镑。这些资金会流入商业街并转化为企业税。2014年在桑德兰开展的一项试点项目显示：为患有慢性阻塞性肺疾病的居民提供5000英镑用于房屋隔热改造与安装节能锅炉后，他们的能源账单显著下降，住院率减少了25%，看医生的次数也降低了60%。
As for infrastructure, the state can outcompete private capital. For a business, wages are an expense. For a country, wages lower the welfare bill. The state collects 40p in every pound back in tax. Money flows through high streets and pays business rates. A 2014 pilot in Sunderland showed that a £5,000 investment in insulation and energy-efficient boilers for people with COPD lowered bills and reduced hospital admissions by 25% and GP appointments by 60%.
若以成本价实施房屋改造并推广清洁能源，能源支出更可减少67%。事实证明，最经济的家庭供暖方式恰恰也是实现国家脱碳的最快捷径。
Combine retrofit and clean energy at cost and energy bills fall by 67%. It turns out the cheapest way to heat a home is also the quickest way to decarbonise a country.
这就是良性经济应有的模样。在泰恩北部地区，我们在拨付任何资金前，都会先评估相关项目对心理健康、环境影响以及社区财富的贡献。
This is what a wellbeing economy looks like. In the North of Tyne we judged projects on mental health, environmental impact and community wealth before a penny was released.
至于通货膨胀问题呢？先培训劳动力、构建供应链，然后再发放资金。这样才能真正提升社会生产能力，还能增加公共资产。我们拥有相应的权力，无需新的条约或专门机构，只需激活现有的国家机制即可。
What about inflation? Train the workers, build the supply chains, then release the money. This creates real capacity and builds assets on the public balance sheet. We have the powers. We don’t need new treaties or quangos.
1946年时，英国极度贫困，甚至开始实行面包配给制。当时国家债务规模相当于经济总量的2.5倍。可就是那一代人建立了国民医疗服务体系，随后35年间平均每年还新建12.6万套公共住房。历经八任首相、两个政党的持续努力，如今我们的相对债务水平已降至当时的一半以下。如今我们拥有的先进设备，是当年的人们想都不敢想的。他们并不比我们富有，却比我们更勇敢。
We need to wake up the state machinery we already have. In 1946 Britain was so poor we started rationing bread. The national debt was two-and-a-half times the size of the economy. That generation built the NHS. Then an average of 126,000 council homes every year for 35 years. Eight prime ministers and two parties kept building. Today our relative debt is under half that. We have machines they could only dream of. They weren’t richer than us. They were braver.
我虽无法预知未来，但敢打赌即将发布的预算案也只会对这些问题做些小修小补。选民们早已明白绿党心系民生；只要我们有切实改善英国现状的规划及资金保障方案，支持率定会持续上升。《Hostage Nation》一书附有134条注释可供查证，我们明天就能着手实施相关计划。价值观能赢得同情，但切实可行的解决方案才能赢得选票。
I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’ll wager the upcoming budget will tinker around the edges of these issues. Voters already know the Greens care, and with a plan to really fix Britain – and fund it – support will keep growing. Hostage Nation is backed by 134 endnotes that are there to be checked. We can start this plan tomorrow. Values win sympathy, but answers win seats.
杰米·德里斯科尔是纽卡斯尔市议会的绿党议员，也曾担任泰恩北部地区市长。
Jamie Driscoll is a Green party councillor on Newcastle city council and former North of Tyne mayor