由于9月份的就业数据表现不佳，投资者们普遍认为美联储在10月份再次加息的可能性极低。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具对30天期利率期货交易情况的分析，美联储在10月份加息0.25个百分点的概率仅为17%。而一周前这一概率还接近36%。在预测市场平台Kalshi上，10月份加息的概率也降至18%，较一周前的近70%大幅下降。
Investors now think the odds are extremely unlikely that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in October, following a weaker-than-expected September employment report. CME's FedWatch tool, based on trading in 30-day interest rate futures, shows only a 17% chance that the Fed increases rates by a quarter percentage point. One week ago, odds were close to 36%. On prediction market platform Kalshi, chances for a hike in October stood at just 18%, down from almost 70% a week ago.
9月份美国经济仅新增29,000个就业岗位，远低于市场预期的8万个以上。劳动力市场的疲软态势可能会促使美联储重新评估其双重政策目标——即实现充分就业与维持物价稳定之间的平衡。此前，为应对持续五年高于目标水平的通胀压力，美联储已在9月份的会议上决定加息。
The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, below estimates for a gain of more than 80,000. A softer labor market could recalibrate the Fed's thinking in how it balances its dual mandate to ensure full employment and steady prices, after it raised interest rates at its September meeting to combat inflation that's remained above target for five years. Odds for a hike in October also fell in the middle of this week after the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Wednesday showed cooler-than-expected prices.
本周三公布的美国个人消费支出价格指数也进一步降低了10月份加息的可能性。该指数是美联储衡量通胀水平的主要指标，数据显示8月份核心物价指数——即剔除食品和能源后的物价水平——仅上涨了3%，低于市场预期的3.3%。
Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 3% in August, lighter than consensus estimates for a rise of 3.3%. "This report strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain patient," said Adam Schickling, a senior economist at Vanguard.
先锋集团的高级经济学家亚当·希克林表示：“这份就业报告进一步印证了美联储应当保持耐心的观点。当前劳动力市场虽未出现明显恶化，但也缺乏显著好转的迹象，这给了政策制定者等待更多经济数据的理由。”虽然目前交易员们认为10月份加息的可能性不大，但他们依然预计美联储会在12月份实施加息。
"The labor market has not deteriorated sharply, but there is also little evidence that it has meaningfully strengthened, giving policymakers reason to wait for additional data." While traders now think a hike in October is unlikely, they're still forecasting that the central bank will raise rates in December.
目前FedWatch工具显示，12月份加息的概率超过75%；而在Kalshi平台上，这一概率则为65%。美联储预计将于10月28日结束为期两天的政策会议后公布最新的利率决议。
On FedWatch, odds are above 75% for a hike in December, while on Kalshi there are 65% odds that the Fed raises rates. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its next decision on interest rates at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting on Oct. 28.