作者：达尼·伯格、迈克尔·麦基前桥水基金首席投资策略师丽贝卡·帕特森警告称，由于政策制定者对后续举措存在分歧，美联储上月在加息问题上表现出的高度一致性很可能在10月份出现动摇。
By Dani Burger and Michael McKee Rebecca Patterson, the former Bridgewater Associates LP chief investment strategist, warned that the US Federal Reserve’s unanimity on last month’s interest-rate hikes is likely to crack in October as policymakers diverge over next steps.
“在下一次美联储会议上，我们有可能看到一些反对意见，”帕特森周五在彭博电视台的采访中说道。“从目前从各位政策制定者那里获得的信息来看，部分人认为10月份可以暂停加息；但也有人认为：‘尽管最新的PCE通胀数据好于预期，但通胀依然顽固，而美国经济在很大程度上依然强劲。’”帕特森发表上述言论之际，9月份的就业数据表现疲软，进一步加剧了市场对美联储10月27日至28日会议的预期分歧。
“There’s a chance at this next Fed meeting, we will see some dissents,” Patterson said Friday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It does appear from what we’re hearing from the different policymakers that some think we can take a pause in October, but some think, ‘Look, inflation is still sticky despite the latest PCE number, the Fed’s target inflation that was better than expected, we still have a very strong economy, in large part.’”Patterson spoke in the wake of a weaker-than-expected September payrolls report that added to the swirl of expectations around the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting.
上个月，美联储联邦公开市场委员会统一行动，实施了自2023年以来的首次加息，正如前美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达所言，此举传递出“坚决抗击通胀”的强烈信号。
The Federal Open Market Committee presented a united front last month with its first rate increase since 2023, sending a “very firm signal” on fighting inflation, as Richard Clarida, a former Fed vice chair, put it.
此次FOMC会议将在11月3日大选前一周举行。帕特森驳斥了选举时机会影响美联储决策的说法。这位曾在摩根大通等多家机构任职、后加入全球最大对冲基金之一桥水基金的华尔街资深人士指出：“如果外界认为选举会影响决策，美联储的信誉将荡然无存，届时10年期美国国债收益率也会升至6%或7%。”目前，帕特森担任外交关系委员会的高级研究员。
The FOMC will convene a week ahead of the Nov. 3 election, and Patterson rejected the notion that election timing influences Fed decision-making. “If it was ever was perceived that it did, their credibility would be done,” and 10-year Treasury yields would be 6% or 7%, said Patterson, a Wall Street veteran who worked at JPMorgan Chase & Co. among other firms before joining Bridgewater, one of the world’s largest hedge-fund companies. She is now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
帕特森形容当前劳动力市场为“招聘少、裁员也少”，但基本面依然稳健。她指出，失业救济申请人数仍处于周期低位；即便9月份新增就业岗位仅为2.9万个，低于市场预期的8.8万至9万个，但在经济零增长临界点附近，这一数据仍属正向增长。
Patterson described the labor market as “low-hire, low-fire” but still fundamentally sound. Jobless claims remain near cycle lows and even a print of 29,000 jobs added in September — against a consensus of around 88,000 to 90,000 — represents positive growth when the breakeven rate is near zero, she said.
尽管在彭博社对经济学家的调查中，就业增长数据未达任何预期，但受美联储有望在10月维持利率不变的预期提振，股市仍出现上涨。国债市场则表现震荡，10年期国债收益率维持在5.24%以上。
While job growth missed all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, stocks rallied on the payrolls news, buoyed by the prospect of the Fed holding the line in October. Treasuries fluctuated, with the 10-year yield at more than 5.24%.
帕特森指出，波动剧烈的主权债券收益率仍是潜在的隐患。其成因包括多国财政状况持续恶化，以及市场中的对冲基金等短期杠杆投资者正逐渐取代央行成为主要买家。
Volatile sovereign bond yields remain a potential trouble spot, Patterson said. The drivers: a deteriorating fiscal situation for a number of governments and a market where short-term leveraged players such as hedge funds are replacing central-bank buyers, she said.
上周五，法国10年期国债相对同期德国国债的收益率溢价升至2011年以来的最高水平，这正是帕特森所称的“脆弱四国”所面临问题的体现。她指出，美国、英国、日本和法国这四个国家均背负着规模庞大且不断增长的债务负担，民众普遍反对紧缩政策，而政界人士则选择增加开支来迎合民意。帕特森认为，法国受冲击最为严重，因为它无法自行印制货币，且国内政治局势持续动荡。
The premium to hold French 10-year bonds over equivalent German bunds widened to the highest since 2011 on Friday, a symptom of the ills afflicting what Patterson called the “Fragile Four.”The group — the US, UK, Japan and France — shares large and growing debt loads,electorates that punish austerity, and politicians who respond by spending more, she said. France, Patterson argued, is the most exposed because it cannot print its own currency and has been racked by political turmoil.