作者：Alessandra Migliaccio总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼的预算案旨在今年终于让意大利的赤字降至欧盟限制之下，得益于增速快于预期。
By Alessandra Migliaccio Premier Giorgia Meloni’s budget is aiming to finally get Italy’s deficit below the European Union’s limit this year, helped by faster-than-expected growth.
财政部长詹卡洛·焦尔杰蒂周五在罗马告诉记者，赤字将收窄至足以在2026年低于欧盟3%产出上限的水平。那将是自疫情前以来，意大利首次符合欧盟规则。
The shortfall will narrow enough to be under the bloc’s 3%-of-output ceiling in 2026, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told reporters in Rome on Friday. That would be the first time it complies with EU rules since before the pandemic.
尽管赤字在随后两年将再度扩大，但将保持在欧盟为国防和能源额外支出指定的授权幅度内，随后于2029年降至2.4%。
While the deficit will widen again in the following two years, it will remain within an authorized margin designated by the bloc for extra spending on defense and energy, and will then fall to 2.4% in 2029.
内阁还批准了这些领域所需的额外借贷，两年总额达280亿欧元（约合315亿美元）。这比原计划要少。国防开支从之前的210亿或220亿欧元削减至140亿欧元，而能源支出在该期间将维持在140亿欧元。
The cabinet also approved the additional borrowing needed for those areas, totalling €28 billion ($31.5 billion) over two years. That’s less than previously planned. Defense expenditure was cut to €14 billion from a previous €21 billion or €22 billion, while energy spending will stay at €14 billion in the period.
这些调整后的计划暗示了对债券市场紧张局势的担忧。周四，意大利与德国两年期国债收益率之差几乎翻倍至55个基点，按收盘价计算为2020年以来最大单日涨幅。
Those altered plans suggest worries over bond-market tensions. The spread between Italy’s and Germany’s two-year yields almost doubled to 55 basis points on Thursday, the biggest daily jump since 2020 on a closing basis.
这主要源于邻国法国的传染效应，法国国债收益率与德国同类债券的利差已升至2011年欧元区债务危机以来的最高水平。
That’s primarily due to contagion from neighboring France, whose own bond spread against German equivalents has hit the highest level since the euro-zone debt crisis in 2011.
梅洛尼决定削减军费开支，正值欧盟警告各国不要要求更多预算灵活性之时。本周早些时候，总理本人正是这么做的，她请求欧盟委员会给予额外财政空间，以应对不断上涨的能源价格。
Meloni’s decision to pare military expenditure comes at a time when the EU is warning against countries requesting more budget leeway. Earlier this week the premier herself did just that, asking the European Commission for extra fiscal space to cope with increasing energy prices.
焦尔杰蒂公布的预算计划预见意大利的债务山将有所下降，但仅在进一步增加之后——这几乎可以确保在希腊修复其公共财政之际，意大利在该地区债务最高的国家中脱颖而出。该比率将于明年达到国内生产总值的138.6%，随后逐渐下降至2029年的136.3%。
The budget plan unveiled by Giorgetti foresees a decline in Italy’s mountain of borrowings, but only after a further increase that will almost certainly ensure the country stands out with the most debt in the region as Greece repairs its own public finances. It will peak next year at 138.6% of gross domestic product, before that ratio then gradually falls to 136.3% in 2029.
这是该国明年大选前的最后一份预算，此时总理正面临一位新的极端民族主义挑战者——前将军罗伯托·瓦纳奇。近期民调显示，其政党的支持率已上升至约8%。
This is the last budget before the country goes to elections next year at a time when the premier is contending with a new ultra-nationalist challenger, the former general Roberto Vannacci. Support for his party has risen to around 8% in recent polls.