十年前，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）不可思议的总统竞选活动被现已臭名昭著的《走进好莱坞》（Access Hollywood）录音带震撼，甚至差点脱轨，这位房地产开发商转型为真人秀明星，在2005年的录音中吹嘘自己未经女性同意就亲吻和抓住女性。
A decade ago, Donald Trump’s improbable presidential campaign was rocked – and nearly derailed – by the now-infamous Access Hollywood tape, a 2005 recording in which the real estate developer turned reality TV star boasted about kissing and grabbing women without their consent.
“当你成为明星时，他们就会让你这样做，”他说，后来他淡化了这句话，称其为“更衣室谈话”，然后思考这盘磁带可能是假的。(It不是。）那一刻，这感觉是致命的--白宫爆炸性竞选活动的失败结局。当时，美国人还没有完全理解特朗普的震惊能力，但并不惊讶。几天之内，愤怒消退，被两个“十月惊喜”所吞噬-维基解密公布了希拉里克林顿竞选经理约翰波德斯塔的黑客电子邮件，然后联邦调查局局长詹姆斯科米宣布该局正在审查与她的私人服务器有关的新电子邮件。
“When you’re a star, they let you do it,” he said, a remark he later downplayed as “locker-room talk” before musing that the tape might be fake. (It wasn’t.) In the moment, it felt fatal – the ignoble end of an explosive campaign for the White House. Back then, Americans hadn’t quite grasped Trump’s capacity to shock but not surprise. Within days, the outrage receded, swallowed by two more “October surprises” – WikiLeaks released the hacked emails of Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, John Podesta, and then-FBI director James Comey announced the bureau was reviewing new emails related to her private server.
那年11月，选民们惩罚了第一位被主要政党提名为总统候选人的女性，因为她的电子邮件，以及其他真实和想象的不满，并将总统职位交给了那个吹嘘自己可以“抓住他们的阴部”的男人。
That November, voters punished the first woman to be nominated for president by a major party for her emails, among other grievances, real and imagined, and handed the presidency to the man who had boasted that he could “grab em by the pussy”.
从那以后，美国女性就没有投过同样的票，而下个月的中期选举又一次考验了她们在特朗普时代对特朗普的容忍度。
US women haven’t voted the same since, and next month’s midterm elections offer another test of their tolerance for Trump in the Trump era.
长期以来，特朗普的崛起--或者也许是克林顿的失败--在教育成就和婚姻状况方面进一步分裂了美国女性。2016年，特朗普总体上赢得了白人女性的支持，但克林顿在受过大学教育的白人女性中获胜，与四年前的总统选举相比，这是党派的逆转。
Long divided by race and class, Trump’s rise – or perhaps Clinton’s defeat – splintered US women further, along lines of educational achievement and marital status. In 2016, Trump won white women overall, but Clinton prevailed among college-educated white women, a partisan reversal from the presidential election four years earlier.
2018年，郊区女性选民“反抗”，推动民主党取得胜利，并在被誉为又一个女性年的同时，有创纪录的102名女性进入美国众议院。
In 2018, suburban women voters “revolted”, propelling Democratic victories and sending a record 102 women to the US House of Representatives in what was hailed as another Year of the Women.
保守派的强烈反对正在酝酿。在克里斯汀·布莱西·福特作证称布雷特·卡瓦诺在他们十几岁时对她进行了性侵犯后，参议院确认了布雷特·卡瓦诺向最高法院提出的指控--他强烈否认了这一说法。
A conservative backlash brewed. The Senate confirmed Brett Kavanaugh to the supreme court after Christine Blasey Ford testified that he had sexually assaulted her when they were teens – a claim he vigorously denied.
Z世代在那次碰撞的阴影下长大。作为一个群体，她们的意识形态性别分歧很大，Z世代女性--许多人因罗伊诉韦德案的推翻而动员起来--变得更加进步和政治参与，而她们的男性同龄人则随波逐流地进入了马加和“同性恋圈”。
Gen Z grew up in the shadow of that collision. As a cohort, they are marked by a wide ideological gender divide, with gen Z women – many mobilized by the overturning of Roe v Wade – becoming more progressive and politically engaged, while their male peers drifted rightward into Maga and the “manosphere”.
对失去联邦堕胎保护的愤怒帮助阻止了民主党在2022年中期选举中的失败。但性别差距不足以打破2024年的玻璃天花板，当时特朗普击败了卡马拉·哈里斯--即使陪审团裁定他在作家E Jean Carroll提起的民事诉讼中对性虐待和诽谤负有责任。
Anger over the loss of federal abortion protections helped forestall Democratic losses in the 2022 midterms. But the gender gap wasn’t enough to shatter the glass ceiling in 2024, when Trump defeated Kamala Harris – even after a jury found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation in a civil suit brought by writer E Jean Carroll.
性别分歧再次笼罩在中期地图上，这将决定特朗普任期最后两年华盛顿的权力平衡。
A gender divide once again looms over the midterm map that will determine the balance of power in Washington for Trump’s final two years in office.
《纽约时报》和锡耶纳最近的一项民意调查发现，65%的女性不赞成特朗普处理总统职位的方式，而男性的这一比例为52%。根据这项调查，57%的女性会支持所在选区的民主党众议院候选人，而只有45%的男性表示支持，这一动态在调查中调查的三个关键参议院竞选中发挥了作用-缅因州，密歇根州和新罕布什尔州。
A recent New York Times-Siena poll found 65% of women disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job as president, compared with 52% of men. According to the survey, 57% of women would back the Democratic House candidate in their district, whereas only 45% of men said the same, a dynamic that played out across three key Senate contests surveyed in the poll – Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire.
特朗普坚持认为，他在整个商业和政治生涯中赋予了女性权力。他的幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯是第一位担任这一职务的女性。但民意调查显示，女性对总统第二任期的表现深感不满，其中包括根据一项全国民意调查，四分之一的女性投票支持他。
Trump has maintained that he has empowered women throughout his business and political career. His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is the first woman to ever serve in the role. But polling suggests women are deeply dissatisfied with the president’s second-term performance, including, according to one national poll, one in four women who voted for him.
在缅因州，长期以来被视为贱民的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）自卡瓦诺与四名保守派法官一起终止宪法赋予的堕胎权以来首次面对选民。她的民主党对手、伐木工出身的政治家特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）正在努力确保选民不会忘记他们的参议员投下了决定性的一票，将他推上了替补席。
In Maine, Republican senator Susan Collins, long considered untouchable, is facing voters for the first time since Kavanaugh joined four conservative justices to end the constitutional right to abortion. Her Democratic opponent, logger-turned politician Troy Jackson, is working hard to ensure voters don’t forget that their senator cast a decisive vote to put him on the bench.
《泰晤士报》民意调查显示，他在女性选民中以53%对44%的支持率领先。
The Times poll shows him leading among women voters by 53% to 44%.
特朗普已将11月的选举视为对其总统任期的公投。选民会巩固他的权力，还是将控制权移交给民主党，并让他的议程陷入停滞？这一切可能取决于美国女性想要什么。不要错过：引用：“这是终结的开始。这就是衰落。尽管他很强大、很叛逆，但这个国家现在的前景并不乐观。事实上，选民的消极和悲观情绪已经达到了自吉米·卡特以来前所未有的地步，”长期共和党策略师里克·威尔逊在谈到特朗普执政的最后几年时说道。“团结票”？在这个党派时代？
Trump has cast the November election as a referendum on his presidency. Will voters cement his power – or turn over control to Democrats, and grind his agenda to a halt? It all may depend on what US women want. Don’t Miss: Quoted: “This is the beginning of the end. This is the decline. As powerful and transgressive as he’s been, the country does not have a positive outlook right now. In fact, the negativity and pessimism among voters has reached a point that is unparalleled since Jimmy Carter,” Rick Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist, said about Trump’s final years in office. A “unity ticket”? In these partisan times?
亚利桑那州民主党州长凯蒂·霍布斯（Katie Hobbs）和凤凰城人口稠密的郊区梅萨（Mesa）前共和党市长约翰·贾尔斯（John Giles）正在这个战场州推动两党合作。
Katie Hobbs, the Democratic governor of Arizona, and John Giles, a former Republican mayor of Mesa, a populous Phoenix suburb, are giving bipartisanship a whirl in the battleground state.
面对艰难的连任，霍布斯选择贾尔斯作为她的竞选搭档。贾尔斯是一位直言不讳的特朗普批评者，在2024年支持卡马拉·哈里斯后，他于5月正式离开了特朗普的政党，成为独立人士。
Facing a tough re-election, Hobbs tapped Giles – a vocal Trump critic who formally left his party in May to become an independent after endorsing Kamala Harris in 2024 – to be her running mate.
霍布斯选择贾尔斯是对独立人士和温和派共和党人的一个序曲，她可能需要确保第二个任期。亚利桑那州曾经是共和党的可靠据点，自特朗普首次当选以来，该州已经选出了一系列民主党人。2020年，那里的选民以微弱优势支持乔·拜登竞选总统，然后在2024年重新支持特朗普。
Hobbs’ choice of Giles is an overture to the independents and moderate Republicans she will likely need to secure a second term. Once a reliably Republican stronghold, Arizona has elected a string of Democrats statewide since Trump was first elected. In 2020, voters there narrowly backed Joe Biden for president before swinging back to Trump in 2024.
今年是亚利桑那州首次选举副州长，此前选民在2022年批准了副州长的职位。
This year is the first time Arizonans will elect a lieutenant governor, after voters approved the second-in-command role in 2022.
霍布斯面对的是共和党国会议员安迪·比格斯，他是特朗普的坚定盟友，在推翻拜登2020年胜利的努力中发挥了重要作用。比格斯选择了奶农、前州参议员辛·科尔作为他的竞选伙伴。
Hobbs faces Republican congressman Andy Biggs, a staunch Trump ally who played a prominent role in the effort to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory. Biggs has chosen Sine Kerr, a dairy farmer and former state senator as his running mate.
在一个政治部落主义和民粹主义愤怒的时代，对于谦逊的霍布斯-贾尔斯阵营来说，中间派是通往权力的可行途径吗？美国政治团队正在为中期选举举办一系列读者问答活动。
In an age of political tribalism and populist rage, is the center a viable path to power for the unassuming Hobbs-Giles ticket? The US politics team is hosting a series of reader Q&As leading up to the midterms.
我们的下一次现场对话将于美国东部时间2026年10月6日中午12点举行，由我们的政治和外交政策记者组成的小组将详细分析与伊朗的战争、随之而来的成本以及美国选民前往投票站时对特朗普的政治后果。11月。在此处将您的问题发送给我们。
Our next live conversation will be on 6 October 2026 at 12pm EDT, with a panel of our politics and foreign policy reporters breaking down the war with Iran, the costs that come with it and political consequences for Trump as US voters head to the polls in November. Send us your questions here.