在萨拉热窝一个完美的十月早晨，年轻人成群结队离开波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的动机并不明显。这个国家的首都沐浴在秋日的阳光下，圣心大教堂阴影下的人行道咖啡馆挤满了人。当地人在咖啡和香烟上徘徊，与镇上的瑞典足球迷和平地混合在一起，观看他们球队的国家联赛。
n a perfect October morning in Sarajevo, the motivation for young people to be leaving Bosnia and Herzegovina in droves is not immediately apparent. The country’s capital is basking in the autumn sunshine and the pavement cafes in the shadow of the Sacred Heart Cathedral are packed. Locals lingering over coffee and cigarettes mix peacefully with the Swedish football fans in town for their team’s Nations League match.
但萨拉热窝的许多魅力并不足以留住波斯尼亚的年轻人。一个追踪移民的当地组织估计，2013年人口普查后的十年内，有超过60万人离开该国，当时官方人口为350万。
But Sarajevo’s many charms have not been enough to keep young people in Bosnia. One local organisation that tracks emigration estimated that more than 600,000 people had left the country in the decade following the 2013 census, when the official population was 3.5 million.
“如果我不乐观，也许我也会搬出去，”萨拉热窝28岁的市议员蒂穆尔·伊利奇（Timur Ilic）说，他将于周日参加县政府选举。他代表我们的党--一个多民族、非民族主义、自由主义运动，他承认，在一个由民族主义政党主导的国家，我们面临着吸引选民的困难。
“If I weren’t optimistic, maybe I would also move out,” said Timur Ilic, a 28-year-old municipal councillor in Sarajevo, who is standing on Sunday for election to the cantonal government. He represents Our Party – a multi-ethnic, non-nationalist, liberal movement that he admits faces a struggle to appeal to voters in a country dominated by ethnonationalist parties.
“人们还没有准备好迎接重大变化，”他说。“他们害怕不确定性。我认为需要有一个新一代，他们不明白为什么人们愿意忍受这种情况，并且愿意投票给我们尝试不同的东西。”我们党和其他非民族主义运动的问题在于，构成他们支持基础的年轻人正在用脚投票，而不是在选票上留下自己的印记。理论上，周日的投票应该是欧洲伟大的民主节日之一，将选出不少于14位总理和5位总统。但提供的职位过多反映了极其复杂的治理体系。
“People are not ready for a significant change,” he said. “They’re afraid of uncertainty. I think there needs to be a new generation which doesn’t understand why people are willing to put up with this situation and who are willing to maybe vote for us to try something different.”The problem for Our Party – and other non-nationalist movements – is that the young people who make up their support base are voting with their feet, rather than making their mark on ballot papers. In theory, Sunday’s vote should be one of the great European festivals of democracy, with the election of no fewer than 14 prime ministers and five presidents. But the plethora of posts on offer reflects a fiendishly complicated system of governance.
《代顿协议》创建了两个强大的地区“实体”--中央政府较弱--旨在作为20世纪90年代毁灭性冲突后确保和平的权宜之计。相反，它使该国的分裂永久化。大多数塞尔维亚人居住在塞族共和国（RS），而该联邦是波斯尼亚大部分克罗地亚人和波斯尼亚穆斯林的家园。民族主义领导人没有动力改变这种情况，也没有动力吸引那些在国外看到更光明未来的年轻人。
The Dayton Agreement’s creation of two powerful regional “entities” – with a weaker central government – was intended as a stopgap to ensure peace after the ruinous conflict of the 1990s. Instead, it has perpetuated the divisions in the country. Most Serbs live in the Republika Srpska (RS), while the Federation is home to most of Bosnia’s Croats and Bosniak Muslims. There is no incentive for the ethnonationalist leaders to change that situation – or to appeal to young people who see a brighter future outside the country.
“他们不希望年轻人感兴趣，年轻人对政治也不感兴趣，”莎拉·莫拉纳托（Sarah Thomasato）说，她越过肩膀指着萨拉热窝市中心咖啡桌上隐约可见的波斯尼亚民主行动党领导人的横幅。这位19岁的政治学和国际关系专业的学生首次有资格在周日投票，但她说，她的年龄段感觉没有被政治主流所忽视。
“They don’t want young people to be interested, and young people are not interested in politics,” said Sarah Ćato, gesturing over her shoulder to a banner of the unsmiling leader of the Bosniak SDA party looming over the cafe tables in central Sarajevo. The 19-year-old student of political science and international relations is eligible to vote on Sunday for the first time – but she says that her age group feels unseen by the political mainstream.
她说：“年轻人不知道如何投票或投票给谁，因为没有人支持我们。”她补充说，不愿参与政治反映了1995年冲突结束后政治作为“禁忌话题”的地位。“我认为从中学开始就教育青少年如何成为一名好公民应该是强制性的。”但这种情况发生的可能性似乎很小，因为波斯尼亚儿童根据塞尔维亚人、波斯尼亚人还是克罗地亚人的不同版本了解他们国家近代历史。
“Young people don’t know how to vote or who to vote for because nobody’s standing for us,” she said, adding that the reluctance to engage in politics reflects its status as a “taboo subject” following the end of the conflict in 1995. “I think educating youth from middle school on how to be a good citizen should be mandatory.”But there seems little chance of that happening, given that Bosnian children learn different versions of their country’s recent history depending on whether they are Serbs, Bosniaks or Croats.
事实上，塞尔维亚共和国的课程现在将拉多万·卡拉季奇和已故的拉特科·姆拉迪奇--两人都被海牙国际法庭判犯有种族灭绝罪--誉为“民族英雄”。
Indeed, the curriculum in the RS now celebrates Radovan Karadzic and the late Ratko Mladić – both convicted of genocide by an international tribunal in The Hague – as “national heroes”.
东萨拉热窝距离首都市中心只有很短的车程，但它位于联邦与塞尔维亚共和国之间的“实体线”的另一边。路标是用塞尔维亚西里尔字母写的，正如23岁的当地居民迪贾娜·帕帕斯（Dijana Papaz）所说，年轻人是在“战犯壁画的包围下长大的”。她与莎拉·帕帕兹（Sarah Phuato）合作举办了一场名为“如果边界就在你体内会怎样？”的展览探讨萨拉热窝和东萨拉热窝之间的分歧--以及年轻人如何克服这些分歧。
East Sarajevo is just a short drive from the centre of the capital – but it is on the other side of the “entity line” that divides the Federation from the RS. The road signs are written in Serbian Cyrillic, and young people grow up “surrounded by murals of war criminals”, as 23-year-old local resident Dijana Papaz put it. She worked on an exhibition with Sarah Ćato called What If the Border Is Within You?, looking at the divisions between Sarajevo and East Sarajevo – and how young people overcome them.
帕帕斯拒绝贴上种族标签，称自己为“波斯尼亚人”，但她承认，姆拉迪奇八月份去世后对他的美化既反映了持久的分歧，也反映了变革的必要性。
Papaz rejects ethnic labels, referring to herself as “Bosnian”, but she concedes that the glorification of Mladić following his death in August reflects both enduring divisions and the need for change.
“我们需要对我们的宪法做点什么，因为代顿不应该持续30年，”她说，“它应该是战后的临时事情，而我们让国家变得更好，但这从未发生。”1995年以来出生的人可能对冲突或其原因没有任何记忆，但他们确实从家人那里听到了很多关于冲突的信息。青年人权倡议的阿伊娜·梅西奇表示，波斯尼亚最光明的前景不断流失也可以归因于国内的压力。
“We need to do something about our constitution, because Dayton wasn’t supposed to last 30 years,” she said, “it was supposed to be a temporary thing after the war while we made the country better, but that never happened.”People born since 1995 may have no memories of the conflict or its causes, but they do hear plenty about it from family members. And Ajna Mešić from the Youth Initiative for Human Rights says the continuing exodus of Bosnia’s brightest prospects can also be put down to pressure at home.
“我们的父母叫我们去，”她说。“在成长过程中，我的命运是成为德国的一名律师。然后在高中的某个地方，我想起我有自由意志。但很多家长会告诉你，他们打这场战争是白的，他们不希望我们也住在这里。”在萨拉热窝历史悠久的市政厅对面举行的非民族主义社会民主党（SDP）选前集会上，年轻人的面孔稀疏地躺在地上，当该党活动人士表演时，米尔贾卡河上反射出红色的照明弹。
“Our parents tell us to go,” she said. “Growing up, my destiny was to be a lawyer in Germany. Then somewhere in high school, I remembered I have free will. But a lot of parents will tell you that they fought the war for nothing and they don’t want us also to live here.”Young faces were thin on the ground at a pre-election rally for the non-nationalist Social Democratic party (SDP) opposite Sarajevo’s historic city hall, with red flares reflecting off the Miljacka River as party activists put on a show.
但23岁的社会民主党青年论坛当地分会副主席本杰明·艾哈迈德贝戈维奇承认，他预计民意调查不会改变国家的局势，也不会改变年轻人离开的倾向。
But 23-year-old Benjamin Ahmedbegovic, the vice-president of the local branch of the SDP’s youth forum, admitted he did not expect the polls to change the country’s situation – or the propensity of its young people to leave.
他说：“政治不稳定一直是波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那移民的主要驱动因素之一。”他指出，人们“投票给自己”的现象是一个加剧因素。“每个人都只是希望一个拥有相同种族标签的人掌权，而不是评判他们做得好不好。”这意味着选举不太可能带来任何惊喜，也不太可能带来任何理由让考虑离开的波斯尼亚年轻人改变主意。正如伊利克所说，他们可能会“想念咖啡”。但他们肯定不会对让他们的国家陷入过去的分裂政治有同样的感受。
“Political instability has been one of the main drivers of migration from Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he said, pointing to the phenomenon of people “voting for their own” as an aggravating factor. “Everyone just wants someone who has the same ethnic label to be in power, rather than judging whether they do something well or not.”That means the elections are unlikely to bring any surprises – or any reasons to make young Bosnians who are thinking of leaving change their minds. They may, as Ilic puts it, “miss the coffee”. But they certainly will not feel the same way about the divisive politics that leave their country stuck in the past.