随着巴西总统选举第一轮投票于周日举行，华尔街正积极准备，而市场预测则因这场势均力敌的竞选结果可能出现截然不同的走向。
With the first round of Brazil's presidential election taking place Sunday, Wall Street is gearing up with starkly different market predictions depending on the outcome of the neck-and-neck race.
Black Toro Global Investments的首席经济学家Fernando Marengo表示：“巴西的贸易局势核心问题就是：卢拉会赢，还是博索纳罗会赢？”
"The Brazil trade is: Does Lula win or does Bolsonaro win?" said Fernando Marengo, chief economist at Black Toro Global Investments.
这两个名字应该听起来并不陌生。卢拉是80岁的左翼政治家路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦，他正寻求第四个任期，而他的对手是45岁的右翼政治家弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，即前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的儿子。如果两位候选人的得票率均未超过50%，则将于10月25日举行第二轮投票。
Those names should sound familiar. Lula is 80-year-old leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for a fourth term against 45-year-old right-winger Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. If neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will take place Oct. 25.
简而言之，如果博索纳罗获胜，华尔街预计该国债券、货币和股票将出现上涨。
In short, if Bolsonaro wins, Wall Street expects a rally in the country's bonds, currency and stocks.
由于博索纳罗在过去几个月里实现了逆转，巴西股市也随着其民调支持率的上升而走高。JPMorgan在最近一份致客户的报告中指出，每当弗拉维奥在民调中领先时，MSCI巴西指数“平均每天上涨0.25%”。
As Bolsonaro has come from behind in the last few months, Brazilian stocks have moved higher along with his poll numbers. In a recent note to clients, JPMorgan noted that the MSCI Brazil "rose by 0.25% on average each day that Flavio gained in the polls."
Kalshi市场目前显示，博索纳罗的胜选概率为60%，而卢拉为39%。不过，巴西禁止预测市场，因此这些结果可能并未反映当地民众的真实情绪。Aurora Macro Strategies的高级顾问Richard Lapper在一份致客户的报告中表示：“过去一个月，局势已向弗拉维奥倾斜，但远未达到预测市场所反映的程度。”博索纳罗之所以成为市场青睐的候选人，是因为他承诺将实行更严格的财政纪律，而许多经济学家认为，这正是巴西所急需的。目前，巴西的债务占GDP比重已达81.9%，自卢拉上任以来上升了10%。
Kalshi markets now show Bolsonaro favored to win 60% to Lula's 39%. Prediction markets are prohibited in Brazil, so they may not reflect local sentiment. In a note to clients, Aurora Macro Strategies senior advisor Richard Lapper said, "the balance has shifted toward Flavio over the past month, but not nearly as far as the prediction markets are pricing." Bolsonaro is the favored candidate of the markets because he's promising more fiscal discipline, something many economists say Brazil desperately needs. Debt-to-GDP stands at 81.9%, up 10% since Lula took office.
“我们需要将财政收支调整至3%至3.5%的水平，才能稳定公共债务占GDP的比重，”花旗集团巴西区首席经济学家莱昂纳多·波尔托说道。他还指出，这种调整不能仅依靠出售国有资产这类一次性举措来实现，“巴西需要实施长期的财政调整。”这意味着削减开支或提高税收——而这两者实施起来都困难重重。目前巴西预算中约90%属于刚性支出，其中部分支出受宪法规定必须执行。据经合组织统计，巴西的税负率已达32%，位居拉美各国之首，其经济增长前景也较为黯淡。
"We need a 3-3.5% fiscal adjustment to stabilize the public debt in relation to GDP," said Leonardo Porto, Brazil head economist for Citi. And it can't just come from one-offs like privatization of state assets, he said. "Brazil needs a permanent fiscal adjustment." That means cutting spending or raising taxes — either of which will be difficult. Roughly 90% of Brazil's budget is mandatory, some of it required by the constitution. At 32%, Brazil's tax burden is already the highest in Latin America, according to the OECD, and its prospects for growth are low.
不过，摩根大通认为，如果博索纳罗胜选并成功推行“强有力的改革议程”，巴西将收获诸多利好。
But there's a lot to be gained if Bolsonaro wins and manages to implement a "robust reform agenda," said JPMorgan.
该机构参考了博索纳罗的父亲雅伊尔在2016年至2020年执政期间的举措。当时雅伊尔成功推动养老金改革，为国家节省了数千亿美元。改革规定男性最低退休年龄为65岁，女性为60岁。此前，男性只要工作满35年即可在任何年龄退休，女性则需工作满30年。改革前，男性平均退休年龄为56岁，女性为53岁。
The firm looks to what happened under his father Jair when he was in power from 2016 to 2020. Bolsonaro Sr. managed to pass pension reform, which saved hundreds of billions of dollars. It imposed a minimum retirement age of 65 for men and 60 for women. Previously, men could retire at any age after working for 35 years, and women could retire at any age after working for 30 years. On average, the male retirement age was 56, and 53 for women.
摩根大通指出，在改革实施期间，巴西两年期国债收益率一度降至4.7%左右，股市涨幅更是高达130%。
During that period of reform, JPMorgan said Brazil's 2-year yields fell almost to 4.7%, and the equity market gained 130%.
摩根大通分析师认为，若巴西再度开启改革周期，实际利率有望回落至6%的中性水平，名义利率则降至10%左右；届时MSCI巴西指数有望实现21%至41%的上涨空间。他们还预计，巴西股市的预期市盈率有望从目前的8.6倍升至13.3倍，这一水平为2020年曾出现过的数值。
If Brazil enters another period of reform, JPMorgan analysts say interest rates could decline to their neutral level, 6% in real terms, 10% in nominal terms, and "we would be thinking about the MSCI Brazil upside potential between 21% and 41%." They believe the forward P/E could move from a current level of 8.6 to as high as 13.3, last seen in 2020.
至于汇率走势，摩根大通称其存在两种可能性：若卢拉胜选，美元兑巴西雷亚尔汇率将升至5.50；若博索纳罗胜选，该汇率则会降至4.90。
The currency outcome is "bimodal," said JPMorgan, with USD/BRL moving to 5.50 if Lula wins and 4.90 if Bolsonaro wins.
此次选举还将决定众议院全体议员以及参议院三分之一议员的归属。立法机构的构成将直接影响各项改革能否顺利推行。
The entire lower house, and one third of the upper house are also being decided in this election. The composition of the legislature will be a key factor regarding the ability to achieve reforms.
Black Toro的Marengo指出，近期拉丁美洲支持商业发展的候选人接连获胜，促使当地股市、债市及货币均出现显著上涨。他提到，哥伦比亚的风险溢价水平下降了约200个基点，其股市涨幅也位居前列——这一情况与秘鲁类似。不过Marengo也提醒称，巴西市场的部分涨幅其实早已被市场提前消化。
Black Toro's Marengo points out that other recent victories by pro-business candidates in Latin America have led to big upside moves in the countries' stocks, bonds and currencies. He notes Colombia's risk premium compression "was about 200 points, and it was one of the stock markets that rose the most — something similar to what happened in Peru." Marengo cautions some of the move is already priced in in Brazil.
与所有新兴市场一样，全球利率上升是主要风险；对拉丁美洲而言，厄尔尼诺天气现象同样值得警惕，因为它可能导致以农产品出口为主的国家遭受农作物减产。
As with all emerging markets, a key risk is rising global interest rates, and for Latin America in particular, the El Niño weather phenomenon which could lead to crop damage for agricultural exporters.
信息披露：CNBC与Kalshi之间存在商业合作关系，内容包括客户引流及少数股权投资。
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.