特朗普总统正前往深红色的内布拉斯加州，共和党正为与独立候选人丹·奥斯本展开一场势均力敌的参议院竞选做准备。奥斯本得到了民主党的支持，后者希望阻止该席位落入共和党手中。现任参议员皮特·里基茨（共和党，内布拉斯加州）在2024年的特别选举中获胜，以填补前参议员本·萨瑟（共和党，内布拉斯加州）剩余的任期，他目前仍是赢得代表“玉米穗州”完整六年任期的热门人选。
President Trump is headed to deep-red Nebraska as Republicans ready for a close Senate race against independent Dan Osborn, who’s backed by Democrats aiming to keep the seat out of GOP hands. Incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), who won the 2024 special election to fill out the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) term, is still the favorite to win a full six years representing the Cornhusker State, where Republicans have dominated the congressional delegation and governor’s mansion for decades.
数十年来，共和党在该州的国会代表团和州长职位上占据主导地位。然而，内布拉斯加州民主党人支持奥斯本，这位独立候选人在2024年的竞选中仅以7个百分点的差距落后于参议员黛布·菲舍尔（共和党，内布拉斯加州），并承诺不与任何政党结盟——尽管民主党2026年的提名候选人已退出竞选，为他铺平道路——而近期紧张的民调显示，共和党在这个红色堡垒州可能处于守势。
But Nebraska Democrats are backing Osborn, an independent who came within 7 percentage points of Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024’s race and has promised not to caucus with either party — even as the Democrats’ 2026 nominee dropped out to clear a path for him — and tight recent polling signals Republicans may be on defense in the red stronghold.
在此背景下，特朗普周一在内布拉斯加州大岛市为里基茨造势，这是他近期在共和党中期选举前景日益黯淡之际，巡回访问红色州站的最新一站。内布拉斯加州共和党顾问瑞安·霍恩在谈及总统即将进行的访问时表示：“他们没有选择奥马哈，而是选择了大岛。这意味着他们担心这场参议院竞选。”霍恩认为，尽管“民主党”标签对该州农村选民来说“不可接受”，但参议院和州长竞选的胶着状态“证明了特朗普的一些政策对农村美国造成了多么沉重的打击”。
Against that backdrop, Trump is rallying for Ricketts in Grand Island, Neb., on Monday, the latest stop in a swing through red states amid an increasingly bleak midterm outlook for the GOP. “They didn't choose Omaha; they chose Grand Island. And that means that they are worried about this Senate race,” Nebraska Republican consultant Ryan Horn said of the president’s upcoming visit. Though the Democratic brand is “unacceptable” to rural voters in the state, Horn argued, the close races for Senate and governor are “a testament to how hard some of the Trump policies are hitting rural America.”
内布拉斯加州参议院竞选的独立民调较少，但上个月韦奇伍德民调显示，里基茨以52%对48%的微弱优势领先奥斯本4个百分点，处于误差范围内。上个月的一项SurveyUSA民调显示，奥斯本以46%对42%领先里基茨4个百分点，另有7%的选民未决定，奥斯本的多项内部民调也显示这是一场势均力敌的竞赛。
Independent polling has been sparse in Nebraska's Senate race, but a Wedgewood Polls survey last month put Ricketts up by a slim 4 points, within the margin of error, with 52 percent to Osborn’s 48 percent. A SurveyUSA poll last month put Osborn ahead by 4 points, with 46 percent to Ricketts’s 42 percent and 7 percent undecided, and several Osborn internal polls also showed a dead-heat race.
库克政治报告今春将该选区评级从“稳固红州”调整为“倾向共和党”，因为民主党人辛迪·伯班克拒绝接受本党提名，转而支持奥斯本。决策台总部目前给里克茨击败这位独立候选人的几率为81%，低于8月的87%。共和党参议院竞选机构的新闻秘书尼克·普利亚对最新数字不屑一顾，辩称奥斯本“将再次被拒绝”。但也有人认为这些数字证明民主党有机会。
Cook Political Report shifted the race out of solid red territory to a “likely Republican” rating this spring, as Democrat Cindy Burbank declined her party’s nomination and put her weight behind Osborn. Decision Desk HQ now gives Ricketts an 81 percent chance of beating the independent, down from 87 percent in August. Nick Puglia, press secretary for Republicans' Senate campaign arm, shrugged off the latest numbers, arguing that Osborn "will be rejected once again.”But others think the numbers prove Democrats have a chance.
“特朗普要来内布拉斯加——这说明奥斯本竞选团队全年发布的民调必定有一定准确性，”林肯市律师、内布拉斯加州民主党主席文斯·鲍尔斯说。“我是说，来内布拉斯加的大岛市，就好比乔·拜登或巴拉克·奥巴马去旧金山一样，”他补充道，并指出上一次共和党总统在该市造势，还是前总统乔治·W·布什为里克茨竞选参议员和阿德里安·史密斯竞选众议员站台时。
“Trump's coming to Nebraska — it tells you that the polls that Osborn's campaign's been releasing all year must have some accuracy to them,” said Vince Powers, a Lincoln-based attorney and Nebraska Democratic party chair. “I mean, coming to Grand Island, Neb., would have been like Joe Biden or Barack Obama going to San Francisco,” he added, noting that the last time a Republican president campaigned in the city was when former President George W. Bush rallied to support Ricketts for Senate and Adrian Smith for the House.
里克茨那次落选了。奥斯本的发言人辩称，鉴于民调胶着，里克茨正在“调动所有党魁支持力量”。卫生与公众服务部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪8月曾到访该州，副总统万斯9月也曾到访。外部资金涌入内布拉斯加，就像涌入其他曾被视为共和党铁票仓的州一样。内布拉斯加大学林肯分校政治学教授凯文·史密斯表示，内布拉斯加参议院竞争“比预期激烈得多”。
Ricketts lost his bid. A spokesperson for Osborn argued that Ricketts is "calling in all of the party boss support he can get" in light of the tight polls. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in the state in August, and Vice President Vance stopped by in September. And outside spending has poured into Nebraska alongside other states once seen as safe for the GOP. The Nebraska Senate race is “way more competitive than it should be,” said Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.
史密斯形容里克茨——他在2024年特别选举中以近30个百分点优势获胜——是一位“相当稳健的保守派”，在民主党选民仅占四分之一的州里拥有现任优势。“在像内布拉斯加这样深红的州，这本该是轻松拿下的选举，”史密斯说。
Smith described Ricketts, who won his 2024 special election by nearly 30 points, as a “pretty rock solid conservative” boasting the incumbency advantage in a state where Democrats make up just a quarter ofed voters. “In a ruby red state like Nebraska, this should be a layup,” Smith said.
“共和党关注这些特朗普以相当大优势拿下的地方，在我看来，这表明共和党认为这是一场有竞争力的选战。” 距离选举日还有一个月，特朗普和万斯都在红州密集奔波，在共和党面临艰难的中期选举形势下，此举引人注目。
“The fact that Republicans are paying attention to these places that Trump took by pretty significant margins, to me is an indication that Republicans think it's a competitive race.”With one month until Election Day, Trump and Vance are both blitzing through red states, raising eyebrows amid a tough midterm landscape for Republicans.
特朗普上周造访了德克萨斯州、俄克拉荷马州和阿拉巴马州，而他的副手万斯则访问了佛罗里达州，并将于周一前往阿拉斯加。孤星州和最后边疆州是本周期全国最具竞争力的两场参议院竞选的举办地。
Trump stopped this past week in Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama, while his second-in-command visited Florida and on Monday heads to Alaska. The Lone Star State and the Last Frontier are host to two of the most competitive Senate races in the country this cycle.
当被问及红州之行是否预示着共和党在中期选举中遇到麻烦时，特朗普没有直接回答。“无论谁赢得总统职位，共和党还是民主党，在中期选举中都会自动表现不佳……但我们不应该，”特朗普说，暗示他的第二个任期是“最具影响力的”总统任期，并吹嘘“我们拥有最强大的军队”和“最好的经济”。
Asked this week whether the red-state tour signals midterm trouble for the GOP, Trump did not answer directly. “Whoever wins the presidency, Republican or Democrat, automatically does poorly in the midterms … but we shouldn’t,” Trump said, suggesting his second term is “the most consequential” presidency and touting that “we have the best military” and “the best economy.”
“我们唯一缺少的是良好的公共关系。我们似乎无法把信息传达出去，”总统说。
“The only thing we don’t have is good public relations. We don’t seem to be able to get the word across,” the president said.
特朗普在2024年总统大选中以超过20个百分点的优势赢得内布拉斯加州，在共和党面临典型的中期选举逆风时，他可能成为该州选民的激励因素。但特朗普的全国支持率下降，这源于选民对经济、伊朗战争及其移民打击政策的不满。
Trump, who won Nebraska by more than 20 points in the 2024 presidential election, could be a motivator for voters in the state as Republicans face typical midterm headwinds. But Trump’s approval is down nationally, driven by voter frustration over the economy, the war in Iran and his immigration crackdown.
随着几位陷入苦战的共和党人开始与白宫保持距离，一些人质疑特朗普的红州之行究竟有多大帮助。“特朗普的到来肯定有助于激励基本盘，即共和党内的‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）派别。这能让他们振奋起来，并帮助他们走出去投票，”史密斯说。
As a few Republicans in tough races start to distance themselves from the White House, some question just how helpful Trump’s red-state visits will be. “Trump coming could certainly help motivate the base, the MAGA section of the Republican Party. It could get them fired up and help them get out to vote,” Smith said.
然而，他辩称，特朗普的内布拉斯加之行也存在“权衡”。“这不仅可能激起民主党人，还可能激起独立人士的投票热情，这对里基茨的竞选可能无益，”史密斯继续说道。
He argued, however, that there’s a “trade-off” to the president’s Nebraska trip too. "It could whip up enthusiasm to vote not just amongst Democrats but amongst independents, and that might not help the Ricketts campaign," Smith continued.
内布拉斯加州第二选区前共和党众议员哈尔·多布对这种担忧不屑一顾。“总会有吹毛求疵的人争辩说特朗普的民调数字不好看，因此会有人问：‘为什么要请一个民调这么差的人来助选？’好吧，他又不在选票上，就像他一直说的那样，”多布说。“我认为总统去大岛市——内布拉斯加州西部的中心地带——传递的信息是：‘嘿，共和党人，这是一场硬仗。可能会是一场胶着的比赛。别赖床了，起来去投票。’”
Hal Daub, a former Republican congressman for Nebraska’s 2nd District, shrugged off the concern. “There'll be the carpers that argue that Trump's poll numbers are not positive, and so therefore the question will get asked: ‘Why would you bring in somebody that has those polls?’ Well, he's not on the ballot, like he keeps saying,” Daub said. “I think that the president stopping in Grand Island, central to Western Nebraska, message is: ‘Hey, Republicans, this is a tough race. It could be a close race. Get out of bed and go vote.’”
然而，鲍尔斯认为，在支持奥斯本的超级政治行动委员会推出的一则新广告引发争议之际，特朗普的到访时机对里基茨来说简直是“最糟糕”的。这则60秒的广告猛烈抨击里基茨，指责他在未联系受害者的情况下，投下决定性一票赦免了一名性侵犯罪人，受害者在旁白中说道：“我不知道为什么里基茨参议员选择了我的强奸犯，而不是我。”
Powers, though, contended that Trump’s visit is coming at the “absolute worst” time for Ricketts amid a controversy stoked by a new ad from a super PAC supporting Osborn. The 60-second spot lambasts Ricketts for casting the deciding vote to pardon a man convicted of sexual assault without contacting the victim, who narrates: “I have no idea why Sen. Ricketts chose my rapist over me.”
本周早些时候被问及该广告时，里基茨称这是一起“可怕的罪行”，并表示他“根据当时掌握的信息，做出了最好的决定”，内布拉斯加公共媒体对此进行了报道。
Asked this past week about the ad, Ricketts said it was a “terrible crime” and that he “made the best decision" he "could at the time with the information" he had, as reported by Nebraska Public Media.
但奥斯本也面临着自己的挑战。上周，在《奥马哈世界先驱报》上月泄露了这位独立候选人批评特朗普支持者支持总统理由的音频后，奥斯本向内布拉斯加州红云市的居民道歉。
But Osborn is facing his own challenges. He apologized to residents of Red Cloud, Neb., this past week after the Omaha World-Herald last month leaked audio of the independent critiquing Trump supporters for their reasoning behind supporting the president.
此外，奥斯本——他承诺如果在11月当选不与任何党派结盟，并主打非党派、工人阶级的竞选纲领——还面临里基茨持续不断的攻击，试图给这位独立候选人贴上“民主党人丹”的标签。
And Osborn — who promised not to caucus with either party if elected in November and focused on a nonpartisan, working-class pitch — also faces Ricketts’s continued efforts to brand the independent as “Democrat Dan.”
“民主党的品牌在奥马哈和林肯以外的内布拉斯加地区相当有毒，而共和党的品牌目前看起来也很受损，”史密斯说。“也许星象排列得刚刚好，让奥斯本真的能把这场选举变成一场势均力敌的较量。”贾里德·甘斯参与报道。
“The Democratic Party brand is pretty toxic in Nebraska outside of Omaha and Lincoln, and the Republican Party brand is looking pretty battered right now,” Smith said. “Maybe the stars align to where Osborn can really make this truly a toss-up race.”Jared Gans contributed.