作者：娜奥米·塔吉图 财政压力和欧洲再度升温的政治不确定性提升了美元的避险吸引力，推动美元接近年内最高水平，不过美元连日上涨也引发市场担忧，认为这轮涨势可能已过度延伸。
By Naomi Tajitsu The dollar neared its strongest levels this year as fiscal strains and renewed political uncertainty in Europe boosted its haven appeal, even as its run of gains stoked concerns the rally is becoming overstretched.
随着欧元走弱，彭博美元现货指数一度上涨0.4%，连续第三周录得涨幅。接下来几天，美国将密集公布多项经济数据，可能决定这轮涨势的持续时间。按照一些指标的衡量，该指数目前处于超买水平，这意味着美元可能面临回调。
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed as much as 0.4% as the euro weakened. That extended a three-week run of gains ahead of a slew of US economic data in coming days that may determine the duration of the rally. The index is at overbought levels according to some measures, indicating that it may face a reversal.
美国利率前景将成为市场关注焦点，未来将密集公布的数据包括供应管理协会（ISM）服务业PMI、就业数据以及周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数。市场还将仔细审视美联储上月会议的会议纪要——美联储在会上三年来首次加息——以及政策制定者的讲话。
The US rates outlook will be in focus given a heavy schedule of readings that include the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services PMI, jobs data and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. Minutes from last months’ Federal Reserve meeting — when it raised rates for the first time in three years — and speeches by policymakers, will also be scrutinized.
法国农业信贷银行G10外汇研究与策略主管瓦伦丁·马里诺夫表示：“处于超买状态且估值过高的美元，可能容易受到本周美国数据意外不及预期的影响，尤其是在这些数据促使投资者重新评估联邦公开市场委员会偏鹰派共识强度的情况下。”该银行的一个模型目前建议做多英镑和瑞典克朗、做空美元。
“The overbought and overvalued USD could be vulnerable to any downside surprises from this week’s US figures, especially if they prompt investors to reassess the strength of the hawkish consensus at the FOMC,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G10 FX research and strategy at Credit Agricole. One of the bank’s models currently recommends long positions in the pound and Swedish krona versus the greenback.
欧元走弱以及市场预期美国将进一步加息，推动美元升至高位，但如果投资者开始质疑美联储的政策路径，美元仍存在回调空间。预测人士还警告称，市场再度担忧美国政府自身的财政状况，可能导致美元脱离高位。
A weaker euro and expectations for further US interest rate hikes have powered the dollar higher, though some see scope for reversal if investors start to question the Fed’s policy path. Forecasters also warn that renewed concerns over Washington’s own fiscal position could knock the greenback off its highs.
尽管货币预测人士预计欧元将进一步走弱，但许多人承认，其最新一轮抛售是由欧洲债券市场的压力所驱动，若担忧情绪缓解，这一走势可能会逆转。与美元相比，欧元的跌幅相对有限，而瑞郎和挪威克朗的跌幅则更为显著，这表明投资者在进行看空押注时，目光已不再局限于美元。
While currency forecasters expect further euro weakness, many acknowledge that its latest selloff has been driven by strains in European bond markets and could unwind if concerns ease. The single currency’s decline against the dollar has been relatively contained compared with losses in the Swiss franc and Norwegian krone, suggesting investors are looking beyond the greenback when it comes to bearish bets.
美元的最新涨势也令摩根士丹利保持谨慎，该行近期刚刚将美元立场转为看多。
The dollar’s latest rally has also raised caution at Morgan Stanley, which recently shifted to a bullish stance on the US currency.
由大卫·亚当斯（David Adams）领衔的外汇策略师在一份报告中写道：“我们担心，美元负风险溢价的突然上升可能导致美元多头头寸被‘强制平仓’。因此，我们倾向于逢低买入，而非在当前价位买入。”
“We are concerned that a sudden increase in USD-negative risk premium could lead to a ‘stop out’ of USD long trades,” FX strategists led by David Adams wrote in a note. “The result is we would look to buy the dip, rather than buying at current levels.”