布莱恩·K·索林斯 贝尔格斯角湾正在形成的一个热带气旋系统本周末可能抵达美国墨西哥湾沿岸，威胁降下暴雨，同时可能绕过主要的石油和天然气枢纽。
By Brian K. Sullivan A tropical system developing in the Bay of Campeche may reach the US Gulf Coast this weekend, threatening heavy rain while potentially skirting major oil and gas hubs.
美国国家飓风中心周一表示，这团阵雨和风暴有90%的几率在未来几天成为热带低压。低压是一类风暴中最弱的一类，还包括热带风暴和飓风。只有当风速达到每小时39英里（63公里）时，它才会被正式命名，预计将命名为伊赛亚斯。"我们预计它将在接下来一两天成为热带风暴," AccuWeather Inc.的首席飓风气象学家亚历克斯·达席尔瓦说道。他表示，登陆最可能发生在星期六中午左右的阿拉巴马州-密西西比州边境附近，但具体时间和地点可能随着风暴北上速度的变化而调整。
The swirl of showers and winds has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the coming days, the US National Hurricane Center said on Monday. A depression is the weakest of a class of storms that also includes tropical storms and hurricanes. It won’t be named until its winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour and would likely be called Isaias. “We have it becoming a tropical storm in the next day or so,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane meteorologist at commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc. He said landfall was most likely near the Alabama-Mississippi border around midday Saturday, though the timing and location could shift depending on how quickly the storm moves north.
如果预报准确的话，这个气旋系统将从美国墨西哥湾 offshore石油和天然气生产中心的东边经过，避开得克岛和路易斯安纳州许多最大的炼油厂和加工厂。
If the forecast holds, the system would pass east of the heart of US offshore oil and gas production and stay away from many of the largest refineries and processing plants in Texas and Louisiana.
大西洋飓风季明显落后于往常的进度。至今已形成8个命名风暴，这通常是在9月9日前就能达到的数量，但还没有任何风暴发展为飓风。到了10月初，一个正常的季节平均会产生约11个命名风暴，包括5个飓风和2个强飓风。
The Atlantic season has lagged well behind its usual pace. Eight named storms have formed, a total typically reached by Sept. 9, but none have become a hurricane. By early October, an average season has produced about 11 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
日益增强的埃尔尼诺现象增加了风切力，帮助抑制了整个区域的活动。风切是指不同高度的风速或方向发生变化，会破坏风暴的结构。温暖的墨西哥湾水域将提供充足的动力，但达席尔瓦表示，这个系统预计在从墨西哥沿海到美国墨西哥湾沿岸沿着一个长形的J形轨迹移动时，会遇到更强的风切力，这将限制它的加强能力。
Strengthening El Niño conditions have increased wind shear and helped suppress activity across the basin. Shear occurs when winds change speed or direction at different altitudes and can disrupt a storm’s structure. Warm Gulf waters will provide ample fuel, but the system is expected to encounter stronger shear as it traces a long J-shaped track from coastal Mexico to the US Gulf Coast, limiting its ability to intensify, DaSilva said.
他表示，降雨可能会成为最大的威胁，但由于该风暴预计将与喷射气流的一个弯曲相互作用，因此其轨迹东南方向也存在着龙卷风的可能性。此外，随着风暴向内陆推进，维吉尼亚州北部也有可能出现大暴雨。
Rain will likely be the biggest threat, but because the storm is expected to interact with a dip in the jet stream, there is also the potential for tornadoes primarily east and south of its track, he said. In addition, there will be a chance of heavy rain as far north as Virginia as the storm moves inland.