美国中期选举一个月倒计时，共和党的形势不容乐观。我不会轻易排除背后有阴谋诡计，但从表面上看，总统及其团队似乎措手不及。唐纳德·特朗普正拼命向选民抛出金钱承诺，并许诺“一个大惊喜”。与此同时，副总统詹·迪·文斯和共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹似乎更关注争论谁将成为特朗普的继承人，而非中期选举。
The US midterm elections are a month away and it’s looking rough for the Republicans. I wouldn’t discount devious schemes behind the scenes, but, on the face of it, the president and his entourage seem to be flailing. Donald Trump is desperately dangling money in front of voters and promising “a big surprise”. Meanwhile, the vice-president, JD Vance, and the GOP senator Ted Cruz seem more concerned with fighting over who will be Trump’s heir than with the midterms.
如果民调是可信的，文斯是2028年共和党总统提名的领跑选手。但尽管他拥有较高的知名度，文斯同时也不讨喜。根据CNN分析员哈里·恩滕的观察，他是历史上最不受欢迎的副总统之一。他还似乎在自己党内交到了仇敌，其中很大原因是他对伊朗战争持怀疑态度。他的批评者包括克鲁兹，后者在8月接受MS Now采访时表示，文斯并非提名的既定人选。克鲁兹说，党内仍在争论最佳候选人，并需要“决定我们是谁，相信什么”。
If the polls are to be believed, Vance is the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. But while he may have great name recognition, Vance is also unlikable. According to the CNN analyst Harry Enten, he is one of the least popular vice-presidents in history. He’s also apparently made enemies within his own party, largely because of his scepticism about the Iran war. His detractors include Cruz, who told MS Now in August that Vance wasn’t a shoo-in for the nomination. The party, Cruz said, was still figuring out the best candidate and needed “to decide who we are, what do we believe”.
这番言论并未逃过那位时刻敏锐的副总统的眼睛。“对我来说，此刻很明显，特德·克鲁兹正在竞选总统，”万斯周五在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC News）采访时说道。“而此刻，我并没有。我正致力于帮助共和党人赢得选举。”
These remarks did not go unnoticed by the ever-observant vice-president. “It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president,” Vance said in an interview with NBC News on Friday. “At this moment, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans.”
克鲁兹则否认自己已在考虑2028年大选，并暗示万斯可能心存芥蒂。“据我的经验，当人们感到不安时，往往会进行政治上的‘投掷炸弹’行为，”克鲁兹周六告诉《政治报》（Politico）。“所以他尽管随意发表任何言论。”是的，请继续随意发表你的言论吧，JD！事实上，我强烈建议你更进一步，提醒人们克鲁兹的那些“经典名场面”。
Cruz, in turn, denied he was thinking about 2028 yet and suggested Vance may have a chip on his shoulder. “In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure,” Cruz told Politico on Saturday. “So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes.”Yes, please continue making whatever comments you like, JD! In fact, I’d strongly suggest you take it up a notch and remind people of Cruz’s greatest hits.
比如，当他的家乡得克萨斯州面临创纪录的致命低温时，他却逃往坎昆度假。还有，他的官方推特账号曾“点赞”了一条色情推文（据称这是“人员配置问题，纯属无心之失”）。此外，还有一个由来已久的玩笑，始于2013年的一条网络迷因，称克鲁兹就是“黄道十二宫杀手”。显然，这毫无根据，但它之所以疯传，是因为听起来竟然有些可信。
There was the time he fled to Cancún on holiday when his state, Texas, was facing deadly, record-breaking freezing temperatures, for example. And the time his official Twitter account “liked” a pornographic tweet (apparently it was “a staffing issue, and it was inadvertent”). And there’s the longstanding joke, which started with a meme in 2013, that Cruz is the Zodiac killer. Obviously, this was baseless, but it went viral because apparently it is believable.
事实上，2016年的一项民调发现，10%的佛罗里达选民认为克鲁兹是黄道十二宫杀手，另有28%的选民表示不确定。
Indeed, a 2016 poll found that 10% of voters in Florida thought Cruz was the Zodiac killer and an additional 28% said they were not sure.
话虽如此，万斯在放出这些话时也应谨慎：他自己也曾是网络迷因的对象。谁又能忘记那些（完全无稽之谈的）关于副总统与沙发发生性关系的病毒式谣言呢？
That said, Vance should be careful about what he dishes out: he’s been the subject of a few memes himself. Who can forget the (completely unfounded) viral rumours about the vice-president having sexual relations with a couch?
尽管范斯和克鲁兹目前可能还在针锋相对，但我猜测他们最终还是会重归于好。他们都是实用主义者——当然，这只是对“毫无灵魂的投机者”的一种委婉说法。例如，在对待特朗普的问题上，他们的经历就颇为相似。2016年时，克鲁兹曾称特朗普（他给特朗普起了个外号叫“撒谎的泰德”）是“惯犯式的花花公子”和“病态的骗子”。
While Vance and Cruz may be butting heads now, I suspect they’ll eventually kiss and make up. They are pragmatists, which is a polite way to say soulless opportunists. They had similar journeys when it comes to Trump, for example. In 2016, Cruz called Trump, who nicknamed him Lyin’ Ted, a “serial philanderer” and a “pathological liar”.
与此同时，范斯则质疑特朗普是否是“美国的希特勒”，并称他为“一根指向他人的巨大手指最赤裸裸的体现”。当然，如今的情况已截然不同。范斯如今已是副总统，而克鲁兹则成了特朗普如此忠实的盟友，以至于总统都称他为“美丽的泰德”。
Around the same time, Vance wondered if Trump was “America’s Hitler” and called him “the most-raw expression of a massive finger pointed at other people”. Now, of course, it’s a very different story. Vance is veep and Cruz has become such a staunch Trump ally that the president calls him Beautiful Ted.
在新闻如此严峻的情况下，人们总得在力所能及的地方寻找一些慰藉。而看着范斯（他绝对不和家具发生性关系）与克鲁兹（他肯定不是黄道十二宫杀手）相互争斗，确实令人感到满足。不过归根结底，到2028年时，我们或许根本不必担心这两人中的任何一位。MS Now的雷切尔·马多认为，总统可能会遵循威权主义的老套路，安排一名家人来接任自己的职位。
With the news as grim as it is, you’ve got to find satisfaction where you can. And it’s certainly satisfying to watch Vance (who absolutely does not fornicate with furniture) and Cruz (who is definitely not the Zodiac killer) feud. Ultimately, though, it may turn out that we don’t have to worry about either man come 2028. MS Now’s Rachel Maddow thinks the president may follow the authoritarian playbook and install a family member as his successor.
马多在最近的一期播客中评论道：“如果他想让[自己的家人]免于入狱、被起诉，或者避免他们的……所得受到调查……他就必须确保下一任总统也是特朗普家族的人。”总统本人也曾表示，特朗普家族“或许会”形成一种王朝，并暗示他的儿媳拉拉可能成为他的继任者。JD，为了接下来的内容，你还是找个舒适的沙发坐好吧：你很难超越一个特朗普。阿尔瓦·马达维是《卫报》的专栏作家。
“If he wants [his family] to not end up in jail or prosecuted or having their … gains investigated … he’s got to make sure that the next president is also a Trump,” Maddow opined on a recent podcast. Potus himself has said “there could be” a Trump dynasty and seemed to suggest his daughter-in-law Lara may be his successor. Take a seat on a comfy couch for this one, JD: you’re going to have a tough time trumping a Trump. Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist