世界银行周二表示，由于能源价格上涨、全球不确定性增加以及贸易伙伴增长疲软给经济活动带来压力，今年欧洲和中亚经济增长预计将放缓至2.2%。
Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia is expected to slow to 2.2% this year as higher energy prices, increased global uncertainty and weaker growth among trading partners weigh on activity, the World Bank said Tuesday.
根据该银行最新的题为“让人工智能发挥作用：就业、公司和生产力”的《欧洲和中亚经济更新》，这一预测与2025年增长2.6%相比。经济放缓是广泛的，反映了该地区大多数国家的前景疲软，尽管发展中经济体继续表现出韧性。
The forecast compares with growth of 2.6% in 2025, according to the bank’s latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, titled “Making AI Work: Jobs, Firms, and Productivity.”The slowdown is broad-based, reflecting weaker prospects across most countries in the region, although developing economies continue to demonstrate resilience.
报告称，图尔基耶经济预计2026年增长2.8%，2027年增长3.8%，2028年增长4.5%。
Türkiye’s economy is projected to grow 2.8% in 2026, 3.8% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, according to the report.
紧缩的经济政策和进口能源成本上升预计将减缓图尔基耶今年的增长，而其2027年和2028年的扩张预计将为地区复苏做出重大贡献。
Tight economic policies and higher imported energy costs are expected to slow Türkiye’s growth this year, while its expansion in 2027 and 2028 is forecast to make a significant contribution to the regional recovery.
报告称，人工智能可以帮助扭转生产力放缓的局面并重振经济增长，但技能、计算能力和数据准备能力方面的缺陷仍然是障碍。
The report said artificial intelligence could help reverse slowing productivity and revive economic growth, but shortcomings in skills, computing capacity and data readiness remain obstacles.
该地区大约五分之一的工人从事着与人工智能有意义的接触的工作，而目前只有不到十分之一的公司使用该技术，主要用于基本任务。
About one in five workers in the region holds a job meaningfully exposed to AI, while fewer than one in 10 firms currently uses the technology, primarily for basic tasks.
中东面临冲突的经济成本世界银行在对中东、北非、阿富汗和巴基斯坦的单独更新中预计，继2025年增长3.3%后，今年将萎缩2.1%。
Middle East faces economic costs of conflict In its separate update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the World Bank projected a 2.1% contraction this year, following growth of 3.3% in 2025.
二月份开始的冲突造成了巨大的经济成本，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭对海湾石油出口国的打击最为严重。
The conflict that began in February has imposed substantial economic costs, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hitting Gulf oil exporters the hardest.
与之前的能源冲击通常使石油出口商受益不同，出口量的减少减少导致产量和政府收入减少。影响还延伸到旅游业、航空和物流业，而不确定性则给金融市场和商业信心带来压力。
Unlike previous energy shocks, which typically benefited oil exporters, reduced export volumes have cut output and government revenues. The repercussions also extend to tourism, aviation and logistics, while uncertainty weighs on financial markets and business confidence.
非洲经济增长加强，人工智能出口支持东亚撒哈拉以南非洲地区预计2026年经济增长将从去年的4.1%加速至4.3%，超出央行4月份预测0.3个百分点。
Growth strengthens in Africa, AI exports support East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026 from 4.1% last year, exceeding the bank’s April projection by 0.3 percentage points.
尽管地缘政治紧张、气候冲击、发展援助下降和财政压力，该地区仍保持弹性。
The region has remained resilient despite geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, declining development assistance and fiscal pressures.
今年，东亚和太平洋地区预计将增长4.5%，这得益于与全球人工智能投资增长相关的高科技产品生产和出口。
East Asia and the Pacific is expected to grow 4.5% this year, supported in several economies by the production and export of high-tech goods linked to rising global AI investment.
该银行将越南2026年经济增长预期上调至7.4%，马来西亚经济增长预期上调至5.1%，泰国经济增长预期上调至2%。然而，太平洋岛屿经济体面临更高的能源成本和对外部冲击的缓冲有限的影响，因此前景疲软。
The bank raised its 2026 growth forecasts for Vietnam to 7.4%, Malaysia to 5.1% and Thailand to 2%. Pacific Island economies, however, face weaker prospects because of their exposure to higher energy costs and limited buffers against external shocks.
拉丁美洲和加勒比地区今年预计将增长2.2%，而2025年为2.4%。该银行表示，更强有力的政策框架、私人投资和信心的改善帮助一些国家的表现优于地区平均水平。
Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to expand 2.2% this year, compared with 2.4% in 2025. The bank said stronger policy frameworks, private investment and improved confidence have helped several countries outperform the regional average.
国内需求支撑南亚南亚今年经济增长预计将达到6.9%，超过之前的预测，然后在2027年放缓至6.7%。
Domestic demand supports South Asia South Asia’s growth is expected to reach 6.9% this year, exceeding earlier projections, before easing to 6.7% in 2027.
强劲的国内需求在汇款流入和最近的结构性改革的支持下，帮助该地区抵御了全球冲击。
Strong domestic demand, supported by remittance inflows and recent structural reforms, has helped the region withstand global shocks.
该银行警告称，持续高企的能源价格可能会加剧通胀并收紧金融状况，而严重的厄尔尼诺事件可能会损害农业和粮食安全。全球人工智能投资的急剧逆转也可能引发财务压力。
The bank warned that persistently high energy prices could increase inflation and tighten financial conditions, while a severe El Nino event could hurt agriculture and food security. A sharp reversal in global AI investment could also trigger financial strains.