伊朗无论特朗普在竞选活动中的随意言论如何，都无法用核武器打击洛杉矶或圣地亚哥。伊朗没有已知的核武器，也没有能够到达这两个加利福尼亚城市的导弹。据国防情报局称，德黑拉约7,500英里远，远远超过伊朗最长程弹道导弹的约1,200英里射程。跟踪全球核扩散情况的非政党性组织《武器控制协会》表示，伊朗的导弹计划在遭受美国打击后如何恢复尚难以判断。尽管专家尚未对被炸毁的场地进行过检查，但该计划所需的铀可能仍埋藏在废墙碎石之下。
Iran cannot strike Los Angeles or San Diego with a nuclear weapon, regardless of President Donald Trump's offhand comments on the campaign trail. Iran has no known nuclear weapons and no known missiles capable of reaching either California city. Tehran is roughly 7,500 miles from California, far beyond the approximately 1,200-mile range of Iran's longest-range ballistic missiles, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency. The nonpartisan Arms Control Association, which tracks nuclear proliferation around the world, said it's hard to tell how Iran's missile program could recover after being damaged by US strikes. The bombed sites have not been inspected by experts, though uranium for the program likely remains buried deep within rubble.
《武器控制协会》的非扩核政策主管凯斯利·达文波特告诉《商业内参》：“伊朗仍然构成扩散风险，但其核计划并非迫在眉睫的威胁。”特朗普星期一在内布拉斯加州共和党集会上做出上述言论时称，伊朗可能对加利福尼亚发动打击，并将这场与伊朗的战争描述为“为维护世界安全、保护我们的国家安全所付出的小代价。”
"Iran is still a proliferation risk, but its nuclear program is not an imminent threat," Kelsey Davenport, the group's director for nonproliferation policy, told Business Insider. Trump raised the prospect of an Iranian strike on California in offhand remarks at a Republican rally in Nebraska on Monday, as he defended the war against Iran as "a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe." "They can take out a city.
“他们能摧毁一座城市。让他们摧毁洛杉矶吧。让他们摧毁圣地亚哥吧。”特朗普说道。
Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego," Trump said.
伊朗拥有远程常规导弹和无人机，可打击中东地区的美军 troops 和基础设施。在“史诗之怒”行动期间，伊朗3月份的打击导致科威特6名美军 troops 死亡，其他打击也严重损坏了中东地区多个美军设施。但这些系统仅具备区域打击能力，并非核武器。
Iran has long-range conventional missiles and drones capable of striking US troops and infrastructure across the Middle East. Throughout Operation Epic Fury, Iranian strikes killed six troops in Kuwait in March, and other strikes have seriously damaged US military facilities throughout the Middle East. But those systems are only capable of regional strikes, and are not nuclear weapons.
自去年5月以来，美国已两次打击伊朗的铀浓缩设施，包括“史诗之怒”行动开始之时。在这些打击之前，伊朗正逐步靠近生产核武器的能力，但尚未成功制造核武器。
The United States has struck Iranian uranium-enrichment facilities twice since last May, including at the start of Operation Epic Fury. Before those strikes, Iran was moving closer to the ability to produce a nuclear weapon, but had not produced one.
达文波特指出，虽然目前尚不清楚伊朗剩余的铀储量有多少，但仅靠军事打击无法抹去伊朗所掌握的核技术。“无论战争结果如何，伊朗都将具备制造核弹的能力，”她说道。达文波特还表示，如果伊朗或其他任何对手最终获得了核武器以及能够跨洋投送核弹的导弹，最有可能受到威胁的将是各大城市及重要军事设施。
Davenport said that while the remaining amounts of uranium are unknown, military strikes alone cannot erase Iranian nuclear knowledge. "Iran will have the capabilities to build a bomb, regardless of how the war ends," she said. If Iran, or any other adversary, eventually acquired a nuclear weapon and a missile capable of delivering it across the ocean, locations most likely to be at risk might be major cities and sensitive military sites, though such an escalation would be unprecedented for any country, and unlikely, Davenport said.
不过这种事态升级对任何国家而言都属史无前例，发生的可能性也微乎其微。她着重强调了局势升级所带来的风险，也就是所谓的“相互确保毁灭”。使用核武器极有可能招致对方的核反击，这也是二战以来各国始终避免使用核武器的首要原因。“各国都不会愿意卷入这种不断升级的恶性循环，”达文波特说道。事实上，各国往往即便发动大规模常规攻击也绝不会跨过核门槛。
She pointed out the inherent dangers of escalation, also known as mutually-assured destruction. Using a nuclear weapon could invite nuclear retaliation, a primary reason those weapons have not been used since World War II. "That's an escalatory spiral states are not going to be eager to climb," Davenport said. And, countries frequently still carry out major conventional attacks without crossing the nuclear threshold.
以色列、美国和俄罗斯均为核大国，但它们在攻击对手时均未动用核武器。十多年来，伊朗也一直借助非对称手段对付美国及其盟友，比如网络攻击。与伊朗政府有关联的黑客曾对美国的银行、大学、企业及政府机构发动攻击。此前，一个与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队有关联的组织还宣称对入侵美国水处理设施系统的事件负责。
Israel, the US, and Russia are all nuclear powers that have attacked adversaries without using nuclear weapons. For more than a decade, Iran has also relied on asymmetric tools against the United States and its partners, including cyberattacks. Iranian government-linked hackers have targeted US banks, universities, businesses, and government agencies. A group linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps previously claimed responsibility for hacking systems that controlled US water treatment facilities.