周一油价下跌，因为市场正在权衡俄罗斯柴油供应增加的可能性。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，俄罗斯将向美国和全球市场供应额外的柴油。他还宣布，俄罗斯和乌克兰已同意停止对彼此能源设施的攻击。这些发展提升了人们对燃料供应改善、缓解部分价格压力的希望。布伦特原油价格周一为每桶104.50美元。布伦特原油期货在格林尼治标准时间0821时下跌22美分，或0.2%，至每桶104.50美元。
Oil prices slipped on Monday as markets weighed the possibility of more Russian diesel supplies. US President Donald Trump said Russia would supply additional diesel to the US and global markets. He also announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy facilities. These developments raised hopes that fuel supplies could improve and ease some pressure on prices. Brent crude prices stood at $104.50 per barrel on Monday. Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.2%, to $104.50 per barrel by 0821 GMT.
与此同时，美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）下跌40美分，或0.4%，至每桶91.45美元。两个基准此前在当天早些时候的跌幅均超过1%。特朗普的柴油协议与油价特朗普的柴油协议可能为市场带来225万桶额外供应。周五，特朗普表示，俄罗斯将立即向美国和全球市场供应超过30万吨柴油，相当于约225万桶。他补充称，后续还将有更多供应，据路透社报道。
Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $91.45 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen by more than 1% earlier in the session. Trump's diesel deal and oil pricesTrump's diesel deal could bring 2.25 million barrels of additional supplies to the market. On Friday, Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel, equivalent to around 2.25 million barrels, to the US and global markets. He added that more supplies would follow later, according to Reuters.
特朗普宣布后，柴油价格大幅下跌。洲际交易所（ICE）燃油期货——欧洲柴油价格的关键基准——下跌4.6%，至每公吨1415美元。这一下跌反映了市场对额外柴油供应的预期。俄罗斯的柴油供应面临限制然而，分析人士质疑该协议是否能够快速增加可用供应。PVM分析师塔马斯·瓦尔加表示，该协议的直接影响尚不确定，因为俄罗斯的炼油能力已大幅下降。
Diesel prices fell sharply after Trump's announcement. ICE gasoil futures, a key European diesel price benchmark, dropped 4.6% to $1,415 per metric ton. The fall reflected expectations of additional diesel supplies reaching the market. Russia's diesel supply faces limitsHowever, analysts questioned whether the deal could quickly increase available supplies. PVM analyst Tamas Varga said the immediate impact of the deal was uncertain because Russia's refining capacity had been severely reduced.
这可能限制该国在短期内能够生产和交付的额外柴油数量，据路透社引用。为什么美国国债收益率上升？是伊朗战争还是经济更强劲？俄罗斯也部分放宽了柴油出口限制。莫斯科已允许50万吨柴油，相当于约370万桶，进入国际市场。
This could limit how much additional diesel the country can produce and deliver in the short term, as quoted by Reuters. Why are US bond yields rising? Is it the Iran war or a stronger economy? Russia has also partially relaxed its diesel export restrictions. Moscow has allowed 500,000 metric tons of diesel, equivalent to around 3.7 million barrels, to enter the international market.
瓦尔加表示，这一数量大约相当于美国一天的柴油消耗量，约占全球需求的13%。俄罗斯-乌克兰能源停火特朗普的能源停火声明提升了人们对能源基础设施遭受更少攻击的希望。周日，特朗普意外宣布，俄罗斯和乌克兰已同意停止互相攻击对方的能源设施。然而，据路透社报道，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，他仍在等待该协议的细节，而俄罗斯尚未对该声明发表评论。
Varga said this volume was roughly equal to one day of US diesel consumption and around 13% of global demand. Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefireTrump's energy ceasefire announcement has raised hopes of fewer attacks on energy infrastructure. On Sunday, Trump unexpectedly announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy facilities. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting for details of the agreement, while Russia had not commented on the announcement, according to Reuters.
国际能源署呼吁各国审查其柴油供应。国际能源署署长法蒂赫·比罗尔表示，所有成员国应评估是否需要额外释放柴油。他还敦促尚未完全兑现先前承诺供应的国家加快剩余释放，优先考虑柴油。伊朗战争风险使油价保持高位尽管俄罗斯供应协议已达成，但中东冲突仍导致布伦特原油价格维持在每桶100美元以上。对能源基础设施的攻击以及油运中断的担忧支撑了油价。
The International Energy Agency has called for countries to review their diesel supplies. IEA chief Fatih Birol said all member countries should assess whether additional diesel releases were needed. He also urged countries that had not fully delivered their previously pledged supplies to speed up the remaining releases, with priority given to diesel. Iran war risks keep oil prices highDespite the Russian supply deal, the Middle East conflict continues to keep Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Concerns about attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to oil shipments have supported prices.
这意味着额外的柴油供应可能缓解燃料市场的一些压力，但不一定会显著降低原油价格。伊朗支持的胡塞武装声称的袭击增加了地区安全担忧。胡塞武装声称对利雅得国际机场的周六袭击负责，该袭击造成13人死亡、300多人受伤。该事件加剧了人们对中东更广泛安全局势的担忧。霍尔木兹海峡石油供应风险霍尔木兹海峡附近油轮遭袭威胁着石油出口的复苏。本月，通过该战略水域的油轮遭袭事件有所增加。
This means additional diesel supplies may ease some pressure on fuel markets without necessarily bringing down crude oil prices significantly. An attack claimed by Iran-aligned Houthis has added to regional security concerns. The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. The incident added to concerns about the wider security situation in the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz oil supply risksAttacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz are threatening the recovery in oil exports. More attacks on tankers travelling through the strategic waterway have been reported this month.
这些事件可能会减缓9月份出现的中东原油出口复苏。随着利率上升威胁到华尔街的利润繁荣，美国银行股票为何损失了2700亿美元的市值？两起报告的海上事件加剧了对油运的担忧。一艘油轮在阿曼索哈尔附近遭到无人机袭击，另一艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡航行时受损。英国海上贸易行动部门根据路透社的报道报告了这些事件。
These incidents could slow the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports that was seen in September. Why have US bank stocks lost $270 billion in market value as rising interest rates threaten Wall Street’s profit boom? Two reported maritime incidents have added to concerns over oil shipments. A tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar in Oman, while another vessel was damaged while travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported the incidents, according to Reuters.
2026年布伦特原油价格预测高盛已上调其对2026年12月布伦特原油价格的预测。该投资银行将其12月布伦特原油价格预测从每桶85美元上调至每桶90美元。它还估计，油价中的风险溢价略高于每桶20美元。风险溢价是指由于对可能的供应中断的担忧，交易者支付的额外金额。高盛预计，在未来几年，美国原油价格将低于布伦特原油价格。
Brent crude price forecast for 2026Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in December. The investment bank increased its December Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $85 per barrel. It also estimated that the risk premium in oil prices was slightly above $20 per barrel. A risk premium is the extra amount traders pay because of concerns about possible supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs expects US crude prices to remain lower than Brent in the coming years.
该银行预测，2026年12月WTI原油价格将平均为每桶81美元，2027年将为每桶73美元。它将WTI和布伦特原油价格之间异常宽的差距部分归因于将美国原油运往欧洲的高昂运输成本，正如路透社所引用的那样。飓风伊萨亚斯威胁石油生产飓风伊萨亚斯对墨西哥湾的石油生产构成了另一个挑战。能源公司壳牌、雪佛龙和英国石油公司正在寻求重新部署人员并在其海上平台恢复生产，因为该飓风在周六早上早些时候登陆。
The bank forecast that WTI crude would average $81 per barrel in December 2026 and $73 per barrel in 2027. It attributed the unusually wide gap between WTI and Brent prices partly to high shipping costs for transporting US oil to Europe, as quoted by Reuters. Hurricane Isaias threatens oil productionHurricane Isaias has created another challenge for oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Energy companies Shell, Chevron and BP were seeking to redeploy personnel and restore production at their offshore platforms after the hurricane made landfall early on Saturday.
恢复产出的任何延迟都可能影响地区石油供应。关键问题是俄罗斯柴油供应是否能够抵消伊朗战争和更广泛的中东紧张局势带来的风险。额外的柴油可能有助于缓解燃料供应的压力，特别是如果更多的俄罗斯出口进入国际市场的话。
Any delays in restoring output could affect regional oil supplies. The key question is whether Russian diesel supplies can offset the risks from the Iran war and wider Middle East tensions. The additional diesel could help ease pressure on fuel supplies, particularly if more Russian exports reach international markets.
然而，该协议并未直接消除油轮遭袭或霍尔木兹海峡周边干扰对原油运输的风险。布伦特原油仍维持在每桶104.50美元，中东紧张局势仍是支撑油价的重要因素。
However, the deal does not directly remove the risks to crude oil shipments from tanker attacks or disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent still at $104.50 per barrel, Middle East tensions remain an important factor supporting oil prices.