国际货币基金组织将其对中国2026年经济增长的预测下调了十分之一个百分点至4.5%，警告称，有韧性的出口已不足以完全抵消国内需求的持续疲软。
The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its projection of China’s economic growth in 2026 by one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.5 per cent, cautioning that resilient exports are no longer sufficient to fully offset persistent weakness in domestic demand.
根据该组织周二发布的最新《世界经济展望报告》，这一修订后的预测处于北京今年年度增长目标的下限，较7月份之前的4.6%预测有所下降。
The revised projection sits at the lower end of Beijing’s annual growth target for this year, down from the previous forecast of 4.6 per cent in July, according to the organisation’s latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday.
报告称：“在房地产行业持续承压的情况下，国内消费疲弱和投资下降仅部分被强劲的出口表现所抵消。”
“Sluggishness in domestic consumption and weakening investment amid continued property sector strains were only partly offset by robust export performance,” the report said.
报告还说：“全球油价上涨，加上长期不确定性和结构性逆风，预计将对经济活动造成压力。”但同时指出，北京的政策支持预计将防止出现“更剧烈的放缓”。
“Higher global oil prices, together with protracted uncertainty and structural headwinds, are expected to weigh on activity,” it said, while adding that policy support by Beijing was expected to prevent a “sharper slowdown”.
作为全球第二大经济体，中国今年将国内生产总值增长目标设定为4.5%至5%，此前几年为“约5%”，此次调整反映出经济正面临国内需求疲弱、房地产行业长期低迷以及外部风险上升的挑战。
The world’s second largest economy had set a target for gross domestic product growth at 4.5 to 5 per cent for this year, a shift from the “around 5 per cent” goal set in previous years, as the economy grapples with weak domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn and rising external risks.
第二季度，中国国内生产总值增长了4.3%，未达市场预期，且为2022年底以来的最低增速。
In the second quarter, China’s GDP grew by 4.3 per cent, missing market expectations and marking the lowest growth since the end of 2022.
尽管国内需求仍然疲软，但出口今年成为增长的重要支撑。海关数据显示，8月份中国出口同比增长25%，达到4014.4亿美元；而今年前八个月累计贸易顺差达到8055.1亿美元，较去年同期增长约3%。最新贸易数据将于周三公布。
Exports have provided a key source of support for growth this year as domestic demand remains subdued, with China’s exports rising 25 per cent year on year to US$401.44 billion in August. Meanwhile, its cumulative trade surplus reached US$805.51 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up about 3 per cent from the same period last year, customs data showed. The latest trade figures are due on Wednesday.
国际货币基金组织在其最新报告中表示，中国的贸易顺差有望在2026年进一步扩大，去年已创下1.2万亿美元的历史最高水平。
The IMF said in its latest report that China’s trade surplus could widen further in 2026, following a record US$1.2 trillion surplus last year.
但强劲的出口尚未转化为国内需求的广泛复苏，因为出口增长日益资本密集化的特性限制了其对就业和家庭收入的益处，摩根士丹利周一的一份报告指出。该报告由该投资银行首席中国经济学家罗宾·辛格领衔团队制作。
But strong exports have yet to translate into a broader recovery in domestic demand, as the increasingly capital-intensive nature of export growth had limited its benefits for employment and household income, according to a Morgan Stanley report on Monday, produced by a team led by Robin Xing, chief China economist at the investment bank.
面对捍卫年度增长率目标的压力，北京近几周一直在加大政策支持力度，包括降低政策性银行利率、为购房者提供按揭利息补贴以及释放5500亿元人民币（合822亿美元）的地方政府债务额度以提振投资。
Facing pressure to defend the annual growth rate target, Beijing has been ramping up policy support in recent weeks, including cutting interest rates for policy banks, offering mortgage interest subsidies for homebuyers and unlocking 550 billion yuan (US$82.2 billion) in local debt quotas to boost investment.
摩根士丹利预计，北京的有针对性的宽松措施将支撑第四季度出现温和的增长反弹。受地方债务压力、房地产市场疲软和消费者信心不足的影响，国内需求有望在2027年前仍承压。
Morgan Stanley expected Beijing’s targeted easing measures to underpin a modest growth rebound in the fourth quarter. Domestic demand is likely to remain under pressure into 2027 amid local debt strains, a weak property market and subdued consumer confidence.
在一份早期10月报告中，摩根大通分析师指出，虽然疲软的消费需要进一步的基础设施支出和增量刺激，但即将到来的政治里程碑——包括10月下旬的第五次全体会议以及3月两会前的筹备——可能使地方官员更趋风险规避，从而推迟项目审批。
In an early October report, J.P. Morgan analysts noted that while weak consumption calls for further infrastructure spending and incremental stimulus, upcoming political milestones – including the fifth plenary session in late October and the run-up to the March two sessions – could make local officials more risk-averse, thereby delaying project approvals.
国际货币基金组织现在预计，中国经济增长将在2027年进一步放缓至4.0%，低于其7月预测的4.1%。
The IMF now expected China’s economic growth to slow further to 4.0 per cent in 2027, down from 4.1 per cent in its July projection.