华盛顿 - 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于10月13日表示，尽管预测显示众议院的竞争将 considerably 更艰难，但共和党在11月的中期选举中保持众议院和参议院控制权的斗争同样艰巨。
WASHINGTON - US President Donald Trump said on Oct 13 Republicans face an equally difficult fight to retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November’s midterm elections, despite forecasts showing a considerably tougher contest in the House.
“我会说是相当的，”特朗普在白宫对记者说，当时被问及在11月3日的投票中，哪个议院对共和党来说更难以捍卫。
“I would say equal,” Trump told reporters at the White House when asked which chamber would be harder for Republicans to defend in the Nov 3 vote.
特朗普承认，现任总统所属的政党面临历史性的不利形势，尽管他坚持认为共和党选民的热情正在激增。
Trump acknowledged the historical disadvantage facing the party of a sitting president, although he insisted that enthusiasm among Republican voters was surging.
“当你有一位现任总统……无论他们看起来多好，他们都处于巨大的不利之中，极大的不利之中，”他说。
“When you have a sitting president... no matter how good they seem to be, they’re at a big disadvantage, tremendous disadvantage,” he said.
“但我现在正在进行巡演，我也在举行集会。共和党的热情程度正在大幅上升。”特朗普的评估令人瞩目，因为共和党一直被广泛视为在众议院特别脆弱，而参议院的选举格局最初曾让他们对保持控制权抱有更大希望。
“But I’m doing a tour right now, and I’m doing rallies. The level of enthusiasm for the Republican Party is way up.”Trump’s assessment was striking because Republicans have been widely seen as particularly vulnerable in the House, while the Senate’s electoral map had initially offered them greater hopes of retaining control.
选举预测机构Decision Desk HQ给予民主党赢得435席众议院的77%胜算，预测他们将赢得235席，而共和党仅得200席。
Election forecaster Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 77% chance of winning the 435-seat House, projecting that they will take 235 seats to the Republicans’ 200.
该机构还略微倾向于民主党夺取100席参议院，给予他们56%的胜算，并预测他们将以51-49的多数获胜。
It also narrowly favours Democrats to capture the 100-seat Senate, giving them a 56% probability of victory and projecting a 51-49 majority.
如果在11月3日失去任一议院，将使特朗普在其总统任期最后两年通过国会推动其议程的能力变得复杂，同时也会让民主党获得更大权力来调查其政府。
Losing either chamber on Nov 3 would complicate Trump’s ability to push his agenda through Congress during the final two years of his presidency, while handing Democrats greater power to investigate his administration.
特朗普已经在选举最后几周开展了一场竞选 Blitz，包括在传统共和党州举行集会，在那里他的党在出乎意料的激烈参议院竞争中面临挑战。历史对这位总统几乎没有提供安慰。
Trump has embarked on a campaign blitz in the closing weeks of the election, including rallies in traditionally Republican states where his party faces unexpectedly competitive Senate races. History offers little comfort to the president.
根据美国总统项目编制的数据，自1934年以来，执政党在中期选举中几乎必然失去席位，众议院仅有三次例外。
The party holding the White House has almost invariably lost seats in midterm elections, with just three exceptions in the House since 1934, according to figures compiled by the American Presidency Project.
富兰克林·D·罗斯福的民主党在1934年赢得了九个众议院席位，比尔·克林顿的党派在1998年增加了四个席位，乔治·W·布什的共和党在2002年增加了八个席位。
Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Democrats gained nine House seats in 1934, while Bill Clinton’s party picked up four in 1998 and George W. Bush’s Republicans gained eight in 2002.
现代史上最惨烈的中期选举失利发生在1938年，当时罗斯福的民主党失去了72个众议院席位，随后是贝拉克·奥巴马的民主党在2010年失去了63个席位。
The worst modern midterm drubbing came in 1938, when Roosevelt’s Democrats lost 72 House seats, followed by Barack Obama’s Democrats losing 63 in 2010.
特朗普本人在2018年首次参加中期选举时主持了一个分裂的结果——当年共和党在众议院失去了41个席位，但在参议院增加了两个席位。
Trump himself presided over a split verdict in his first midterms in 2018, when Republicans lost 41 House seats but gained two in the Senate.