每周工作日，由吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）主持的 CNBC Investing Club 都会发布《Homestretch》这份实时市场更新报告，这份报告专门为华尔街市场的最后一个交易小时准备。周二下午，全球股市普遍下跌，尤其是那些与人工智能（AI）技术发展密切相关的股票表现尤为疲软。其中，Micron、SK Hynix 等内存芯片制造商的股价连续第二天大幅下跌；这是因为中国的竞争对手 CXMT 在周末宣布其在制造内存芯片方面取得了新的技术突破。
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stocks are lower across the board Tuesday afternoon, as key members of the AI buildout trade continue to struggle. Club name Micron , as well as SK Hynix and other memory stocks are down sharply for a second straight day, after Chinese rival CXMT touted progress this weekend on a more efficient way of making memory chips.
实际上，在这些负面消息出现之前，AI 相关股票的走势就已经开始波动了。如果追溯到上周，iShares Semiconductor ETF 和 VanEck Semiconductor ETF 这两只ETF都已经连续第六个交易日出现下跌，这标志着它们自 2025 年 5 月以来最长的连续下跌趋势（当时这两只ETF 曾连续七个交易日下跌）。不过，并非所有科技股都表现不佳：Meta Platforms 的股价上涨了近 3%（我们稍后会详细介绍该公司的情况）；Salesforce 和 Microsoft 的股价分别上涨了 2% 和 1%。
The AI trade was wobbling even before being confronted by these headlines. Stretching back to last week, the iShares Semiconductor ETF and VanEck Semiconductor ETF are each on pace for a sixth negative day in a row. It is both ETFs' longest losing streaks since May 2025, when they dropped for seven straight sessions. Not all tech stocks were in the red. Meta Platforms is up nearly 3% (more on the company shortly), while Salesforce and Microsoft are up 2% and 1%, respectively.
苹果公司的股价也小幅上涨（该公司刚刚推出了其迄今为止最强大的智能家居设备产品线）。在我们的投资组合中，Johnson & Johnson 的表现最为疲软，其股价下跌了约 6%。虽然我们对该公司医疗科技业务面临的问题感到担忧，但对它的制药业务仍持乐观态度，并将周二的股价下跌视为一个买入机会。
Apple is clinging to modest gains (and trying for a record close) after the iPhone maker unveiled its biggest push yet into connected home devices. Johnson & Johnson is the biggest laggard in our portfolio, down about 6%. While not thrilled with the problems facing its MedTech segment, we're upbeat on its pharmaceutical business and look at Tuesday's pullback as a buying opportunity.
周二上午，银行股的表现也未能给市场带来任何提振，这标志着第三季度财报季的非正式开始。摩根大通（JPMorgan）、花旗集团（Citigroup）、富国银行（Wells Fargo）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）的财报结果基本符合预期；这些银行的财务指标表明经济依然具有韧性，投资银行业务也依然活跃，尽管活跃程度已不如第二季度那么强劲。
The market wasn't getting any help from the banks, which ushered in the unofficial start to third-quarter earnings season Tuesday morning. The results from JPMorgan , Citigroup , Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs were mostly healthy, with credit metrics pointing to a resilient economy and investment banking activity still robust, just not as robust as in the blistering second quarter. The stock reaction wasn't great.
然而，这些财报对股市的提振作用有限：摩根大通的股价略有下跌，花旗集团下跌了 4%，富国银行下跌了 2%，而高盛的股价则上涨了约 0.5%。在周二早些时候的财报分析中，我们上调了对高盛的评级（此前高盛的股价曾受到严重打压）。
JPMorgan is slightly lower, Citigroup fell 4%, and Wells Fargo dropped 2%. Goldman was the outlier, up about 0.5%. In our earnings analysis earlier Tuesday, we upgraded Goldman , which had been battered into the print.
RBC Capital Markets的资深银行分析师杰拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy）表示，股价的波动可以归因于几个因素：首先，公司对未来业绩的预测调整幅度较小；其次，市场预计Meta未来的股票回购计划也会减少。在过去两个交易日内，Meta的股价上涨了约6%，这主要得益于其最新人工智能模型系列“Muse Wonder”所引发的积极市场反响。
Veteran bank analyst Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets said he thinks a couple of factors explain the stock moves, including less powerful estimate revisions versus the second quarter and expectations for less stock buybacks going forward. Meta has gained roughly 6% over the past two sessions, fueled by enthusiasm around its latest artificial intelligence model family, Muse Wonder.
该模型系列包括两个版本：“Muse Wonder”和更高级的“Muse Wonder Full”。Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）在周一播出的Cheeky Pint播客中表示，这一模型系列的发布标志着Meta在人工智能领域取得了“重大进展”：“既然我们已经站在了技术的前沿，那么我们未来的所有努力都将不断推动这一前沿的发展。”
There are two versions: Muse Wonder and a more advanced version dubbed Muse Wonder Full. Released Monday afternoon, the model family marks a "big step forward" in Meta's AI efforts, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the Cheeky Pint podcast , which also published Monday. "Now that we are kind of at the frontier, now everything that we do going forward will just kind of be pushing the frontier," Zuckerberg said.
华尔街的分析师们也认同扎克伯格的观点。Wells Fargo认为，凭借“Muse Wonder Full”，Meta已经达到了人工智能技术的“前沿水平”；根据其发布的《人工智能分析指数》（Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index），该模型仅排在Anthropic公司的“Claude Opus 5.5”之后，位列行业最先进的人工智能产品之列。目前，“Muse Wonder”可以通过Meta的Model API及其Muse Code工具提供给开发者使用，而“Muse Wonder Full”则仅向Muse Code的付费用户开放。
Analysts on Wall Street concur with Zuckerberg's assessment. Wells Fargo declared that Meta has reached the "AI frontier" with Muse Wonder Full. Based on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, Wells wrote that Muse Wonder Full ranks among the industry's most advanced offerings, behind only Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5. To start, Muse Wonder is available to developers through Meta's Model API and its Muse Code agent for writing software. Muse Wonder Full is available to payingrs of Muse Code.
该公司表示，“Muse Wonder”很快也会被集成到其Muse个人助手应用程序中（首先面向付费用户）。这些新产品的发布有望帮助Meta吸引更多付费用户，同时加强其面向消费者的AI服务，从而创造除广告之外的新的收入来源。在产品发布后，Facebook和Instagram的母公司Meta还收到了大量分析师的乐观评价，并且其股价目标也被上调。
The company said that Muse Wonder will soon come to its Muse personal agent app, beginning first with paidrs. The releases could help Meta attract more paying users and strengthen its consumer-facing AI offerings, creating new revenue opportunities beyond advertising. The Facebook and Instagram parent also received a wave of bullish analyst notes and price target hikes following the launch.
贝尔德称这是Meta在人工智能领域巨额投资带来的“又一个具体成果的例证”；KeyBanc则认为这进一步证明了Meta拥有在人工智能领域竞争所需的人才、数据、分销渠道和计算能力。虽然“Wonder”这款产品只是一个小幅改进，并非具有重大推动作用的创新成果，但Meta自4月份发布“Muse Spark”以来在人工智能领域持续推出新产品的速度让我们感到鼓舞。
Baird called it "another example of tangible product progress" from Meta's heavy AI investments, while KeyBanc said it "reinforces Meta has the right mix of talent, data, distribution, and compute capacity to compete in AI." Although Wonder is an incremental development rather than a major catalyst on its own, we're encouraged by Meta's steady pace of AI releases following Muse Spark in April.
在播客中，扎克伯格还表示人工智能的研发速度应该会加快，他说：“我认为，未来每开发出一个更强大的模型所需的时间间隔将会逐渐缩短。”目前尚不清楚这些产品所带来的订阅收入会有多重要，但这些进展确实表明：Meta在人工智能领域的巨额投资正在带来具有商业变现潜力的产品，从而缓解了此前人们对“投资却看不到明显回报”的担忧。
On the podcast, Zuckerberg also said development should accelerate, saying, "the time between each subsequently bigger class of models, I think, will now start to kind of compress." It's still unclear how meaningful the resulting subscription revenue could become, but the progress offers growing evidence that Meta's substantial AI investments are producing competitive products with monetization potential, easing earlier concerns about spending without a clear payoff.
市场收盘后没有重要的财报发布。不过，周三上午将有半导体设备巨头ASML以及多家具有影响力的金融机构（包括美国银行、黑岩集团、摩根士丹利和与纽约银行（Bank of New York）竞争密切的State Street）公布财报；纽约银行的财报将在周四上午公布。在经济数据方面，周三的重要数据是上午8:30（东部时间）发布的9月份消费者价格指数（CPI），该指数可能会影响市场对未来美联储利率决策的预期。
There are no major earnings reports after the bell. However, Wednesday morning brings results from semiconductor equipment giant ASML and more influential financials Bank of America , BlackRock , Morgan Stanley , and State Street , which is the closest competitor to Club name Bank of New York . We'll hear from BNY on Thursday morning. On the economic data side Wednesday, the big report is the consumer price index for September at 8:30 a.m. ET, which figures to influence expectations around future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
美联储的《褐皮书》（Beige Book）——这份由美联储12个地区分支机构共同编制的关于美国当前经济状况的定期报告——将于下午2:00（东部时间）发布。
The Fed's Beige Book — the central bank's periodic update on current economic conditions in the country, gathered by the 12 regional Fed arms — is due out at 2 p.m. ET. ()