美国的通胀正受到柴油的推动。农民和卡车司机使用的这种燃料价格自伊朗战争在晚冬爆发以来已上涨超过75%。柴油成本已成为经济学家特别关注的问题，他们表示，更高的柴油燃料成本会渗透到“几乎所有东西”中。而11月关键中期选举前最后一份政府通胀报告很可能反映出这对企业和消费者造成了多大的困扰。劳工统计局将于周三上午8:30发布其9月份消费者价格指数报告。
Inflation in America is being powered by diesel. The price of the fuel, used by farmers and truckers, is up more than 75% since the start of the Iran war in late winter. Diesel costs have become a particular concern for economists, who say that higher diesel fuel costs trickle down into “just about everything.”And the final government inflation report before November’s pivotal midterm elections will likely reflect how much of a headache it’s become for businesses and consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its September consumer price index report at 8:30 a.m.
根据道琼斯对经济学家的调查，预计该报告将显示年度通胀率从3.4%升至3.7%。8月至9月期间，价格预计将上涨0.6%。若这一月度涨幅得到确认，也将是近年来最大的涨幅之一。自8月以来，油价已从约每桶80美元升至超过105美元。大多数消费者购买的普通汽油价格自伊朗战争在2月下旬爆发以来仍保持在比当时高出45%以上的水平。
Wednesday. It’s expected to show the annual rate of inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, according to a survey of economists from Dow Jones. From August to September, prices are expected to have risen by 0.6%. The monthly jump, if confirmed, would also be one of the largest in years. Since August, oil prices have risen to more than $105 per barrel from about $80.
随着本周提前投票的展开，更高的通胀读数将在共和党人捍卫众议院和参议院多数席位的紧张时刻出现。民调一致发现，今年通胀和高昂的生活成本是两党选民最关心的问题。今年夏天和秋天，更高的柴油价格对堪萨斯州、爱荷华州和德克萨斯州等农业州造成了特别严重的冲击。这些州长期被视为共和党的铁票仓，但所有三个州的民主党参议员候选人均以聚焦高昂生活成本的竞选活动表现优于共和党对手。
The price of regular gas, which most consumers buy, also remains elevated by more than 45% since late February, when the Iran war was launched. As early voting kicks off this week, a higher inflation reading would come at a precarious moment for Republicans defending majorities in the House and Senate. Polls consistently find that inflation and the high cost of living are top issues this year for voters in both parties. Higher diesel prices this summer and fall have hit agricultural states like Kansas, Iowa and Texas especially hard.
针对汽油和柴油价格高涨的呼声，特朗普总统在最近几周内动用了多项政策杠杆，旨在压低价格。但到目前为止，这些措施尚未产生显著效果。
Long viewed as Republican strongholds, all three states have Democrats outperforming in Senate races with campaigns focused on the high cost of living. In response to the outcry over the high cost of gas and diesel, President Donald Trump has pulled several policy levers in recent weeks aimed at pushing down prices.
特朗普政府施压七国集团盟友释放更多柴油库存，下达命令允许更广泛使用免税柴油，并宣布与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京达成协议，俄罗斯将释放部分柴油供应并取消部分出口限制。特朗普还放宽了对俄罗斯的一些制裁，以促成俄罗斯柴油交易，此举引发全球反弹。
But so far, none of them has made much of a dent. The Trump administration has pressured G7 allies to release more diesel stocks, issued an order to allow more widespread use of tax-free diesel, and announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia release some diesel supplies and drop some of its export restrictions.
核心关切 消费者工资仍落后于通胀速度。截至9月，工资增长率为3%，自3月以来一直未超过通胀增长。尽管如此，尽管物价和工资承压，消费者仍在持续消费。周二，全国最大银行的首席执行官报告称，消费者保持稳定的消费节奏。花旗集团首席执行官简·弗雷泽表示：“尽管近期能源价格上涨、货币政策趋紧等多重逆风带来挑战，但全球经济在美国表现得相当稳健。”
The latest action has drawn global backlash after Trump also eased some sanctions on Russia in order to facilitate the Russian diesel deal. Core concerns Consumers’ wages are still lagging behind the rate of inflation. As of September, wage growth was 3% and has not grown faster than inflation since March. Still, despite the pressure on prices and wages, consumers continue to spend. The CEOs of the nation’s largest banks on Tuesday reported that consumers remain spending at a steady pace.
她补充道：“虽然人工智能热潮备受关注，但消费者仍是推动经济动力的主要力量。”富国银行首席执行官查理·沙夫说：“我们的数据显示，我们的消费者和企业客户表现良好。”摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，过去三个月，“经济继续受到强劲的企业投资和持续的消费者支出推动”。
“While various headwinds, most recently higher energy prices, and tighter monetary policies have been challenging, the global economy has held up remarkably well in the U.S.,” said Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser. “While much has been made of the AI boom, the consumer is still driving much” of the economy’s momentum, she added. “Our data shows that our consumer and business customers are doing well,” said Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf.
核心通胀（即剔除食品和能源价格后，更受美联储关注的通胀指标）预计也将上升至2.5%。若属实，这将是自6月以来的最高水平。推动核心通胀上升的一个关键领域是航空运输。摩根士丹利的经济学家表示：“机票价格仍是受油价上涨影响最直接的核心类别。”
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy “continued to be fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending” over the last three months. Core inflation, which is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve and which strips out food and energy prices, is expected to rise as well, to 2.5%. If confirmed, that would be its highest level since June. One key sector fueling higher core inflation is airfare.
“航空票价CPI同比已上涨23%，这引发了一个问题：价格还能上涨多少。”他们指出，自去年此时起，喷气燃料价格已上涨90%，“并且通常占航空公司运营成本的20-30%左右。”因此，“航空公司可能已经开始将燃料成本的增加全额转嫁给消费者。”iPhone和利率另一个可能影响9月通胀率的主要消费品：iPhone价格上涨。
“Airfares remain the core category most directly affected by higher oil prices,” said economists at Morgan Stanley. “Airfare CPI is already up 23% y/y, which raises the question of how much further prices can increase.”They noted that jet fuel prices have risen 90% since this time last year, “and typically account for roughly 20-30% of airline operating costs.”As a result, “Airlines may already be approaching full pass-through of the increase in fuel costs to consumers.” iPhones and interest rates Another major consumer item that could impact September’s inflation rate: pricier iPhones.
苹果最新款iPhone于9月12日开始发售，摩根士丹利的经济学家表示，“各型号的价格普遍上涨了10%-14%。”考虑到苹果在美国智能手机市场占有约50%的份额，“这可能转化为他们所说的整体通胀的小幅上行影响。”但虽然这些更高的iPhone价格可能正在推动9月的通胀，它们也是今年早些时候通胀的产物——这种通胀可追溯至AI数据中心规模的持续扩张。
Apple’s latest iPhone began selling on Sept. 12, and Morgan Stanley’s economists said “price increases were generally in the 10%-14% range across models.”“Given Apple’s roughly 50% share of the U.S. smartphone market,” this could translate into what they said could be a small upside impact on overall inflation. But while these higher iPhone prices are likely contributing to September’s inflation, they are also the product of inflation earlier his year — inflation that traces back to the ever-expanding buildout of AI data centers.
构建用于AI的数据中心和芯片的竞赛引发了对内存的抢夺，尤其是如此。鉴于内存芯片供应有限，价格以史无前例的速度飙升。6月，苹果告诉NBC新闻，它“从未见过某个部件的价格在这么短的时间内涨这么高。”高盛的经济学家也预计9月其他关键消费类别将出现跳涨。“我们预计汽车通胀将回升，反映出二手车价格上涨0.5%，新车价格上涨0.2%，以及汽车保险类别上涨0.2%，”他们在一份备忘录中写道。
The race to build data centers and chips for AI has triggered a scramble for memory, in particular. Given that the supply of memory chips is limited, prices have soared at an unprecedented pace. In June, Apple told NBC News that it has “never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly.”Economists at Goldman Sachs also expect to see a jump in September in other key consumer categories. “We expect a pickup in autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% increase in new car prices, and a 0.2% increase in the car insurance category,” they wrote in a note.
周三的数据还可能“决定美联储下一次加息是否即将到来，还是仅仅仍在前方，”瑞银的经济学家表示。已经，央行今年已一次加息以试图放缓通胀。多位美联储高级官员也曾表示，需要进一步提高利率。
Wednesday’s data could also “determine whether the Fed’s next hike is imminent, or simply still ahead,” said economists at UBS. Already, the central bank has interest raised rates once this year to try to slow inflation. A number of top Fed officials have also spoken about the need to raise rates even higher.
“如果经济数据继续按预期出现，我预计将进一步加息，以支持通胀更及时地回到我们2%的目标，”美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周四表示。“但这些加息的确切时间仍有弹性。”美联储预计将在今年再次加息一次，最可能是在12月。但周三的通胀数据若高于预期，可能会加剧这种紧迫性，并导致央行在10月27日至28日的会议上在选举日之前加息。
“If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our two percent goal,” said Federal Reserve governor Christoper Waller on Thursday. “But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur.”The Fed is expected to raise rates one more time this year, most likely in December. But an inflation reading on Wednesday that comes in hotter than expected could increase that urgency and lead to a pre-Election Day rate hike at the central bank’s Oc. 27-28 meeting.