特朗普白宫助手认为，共和党在中期选举中保持众议院控制权几乎没有可能，他们更专注于加倍努力以保住参议院多数席位。
Trump White House aides see almost no paths to Republicans keeping control of the House in the midterm elections, and are more focused on redoubling their efforts to save the Senate majority.
这是共和党团体官员在最近几周与白宫助手讨论形势后得到的结论，三位熟悉情况的消息人士透露。
That has been the takeaway for officials in GOP groups who have been discussing the state of play with White House aides in recent weeks, according to three sources familiar with the situation.
这一切发生在白宫进入损失控制模式之际——就在本月早些时候，正如《内环》此前报道的那样，白宫首次考虑到共和党可能失去国会两院的控制权。
It all comes as the White House moves into damage-control mode after contemplating for the first time earlier this month, as Inner Loop previously reported, that Republicans could possibly lose both chambers of Congress.
普遍的预期是，众议院已经成为无望之战。共和党国会领导层曾经认为可以翻转的选区，以此抵消民主党的得票增长，如今不再被视为可实现的目标。
The general expectation is that the House has become a lost cause. Races that Republican congressional leadership once thought they could flip in order to offset Democratic gains are no longer considered attainable.
与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊结盟的超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”已撤回了在密歇根州和俄亥俄州民主党选区的广告投放——这些地区他们原本希望能够翻转，同时也撤回了在内布拉斯加州即将因唐·巴肯退休而空出的共和党席位的广告。该基金还开始取消在新泽西州和爱荷华州两场共和党寻求连任的众议院选举中的剩余广告预订。
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, has now pulled ad buys in Democratic districts in Michigan and Ohio they were hoping to flip, as well as in the Republican seat being vacated in Nebraska by the retiring Don Bacon. The fund also started canceling remaining ad reservations in two House races where Republicans are seeking reelection in New Jersey and Iowa.
白宫助手已将注意力转向全力捍卫参议院多数席位，尽管参议院形势也令人担忧，但程度不如众议院严重，消息人士称。（民意调查模型和预测市场的结论一致。）助手们认为，参议院仍有竞争可能，主要原因是关键参议院摇摆州的邮寄选票早期返还情况相对强劲，且与2024年总统选举水平相当，消息人士透露。
White House aides have shifted their focus to pushing an all-out defense of the Senate majority, which is also looking problematic but to a lesser degree than the House, the sources say. (Polling models and prediction markets agree.) The aides see the Senate as still in play in large part because early returns for mail ballots have been relatively strong and comparable to 2024 presidential election levels in key Senate battleground states, sources say.
特朗普旗下MAGA Inc.的官员也私下讨论了，如果共和党能够赢得阿拉斯加、爱荷华州和俄亥俄州参议院席位的某种组合，这将形成一道防火墙，使民主党夺取参议院控制权的道路更加复杂。
Trump officials at MAGA Inc. have also privately discussed how if Republicans can win some combination of senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, that would form a firewall that complicates Democrats' path to snatching control of the Senate.
然而，特朗普官员似乎已经承认他们不太可能在北卡罗来纳州获胜。参议院共和党人的竞选机构自10月初以来已暂停在北卡罗来纳州的广告支出，这与其他外部团体的撤资行为相呼应。
Still, Trump officials appear to have conceded they are unlikely to win in North Carolina. Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has paused ad spending in North Carolina since the start of October, mirroring pullbacks by other outside groups.
“特朗普总统致力于维持共和党在众议院和参议院的多数优势，”白宫发言人丽兹·赫斯顿在一份声明中表示。
“President Trump is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate,” says White House spokesperson Liz Huston in a statement.
目前的局势——在像北卡罗来纳州这样的州撤退，而迈克尔·惠特利（前共和党全国委员会主席）正在此参选——就在几个月前还难以想象。
The state of play—retreating from a state like North Carolina, where Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair is on the ballot—would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.
但这反映了共和党人在中期选举最后阶段所面临的炙热政治气候，而这一局势似乎每周都在恶化，因为伊朗战争导致的高油价和生活成本仍然在选民心中挥之不去。
But it speaks to the torrid political climate for Republicans heading into the last stretch of the midterm cycle, which appears to worsen by the week as high gas and living prices caused by the Iran war remain sticky in voters' minds.
消息人士称，距离选举还有20天，特朗普官员正寻求在11月从MAGA基础选民那里获得最大投票率，而不是试图争取民调显示不会倾向共和党的摇摆选民。
With 20 days until the election, sources say, Trump officials are looking to get maximum turnout from the MAGA base in November, rather than trying to capture swing voters who polls show are not breaking for Republicans.
“共和党人仍然专注于赢得、保护和扩大特朗普总统的多数优势，”共和党全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷在一份声明中表示。“我们正在跳出常规思维，以对抗典型的中期选举惯例。”这一努力已经体现在总统穿梭全国、直接面向支持者进行选民外联的行动中，他在本应是共和党铁票州的集会上露面。
"Republicans remain laser focused on winning and protecting and expanding President Trump's majorities,” says Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassare in a statement. “We're thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent.”The effort has manifested in a direct voter outreach play with the president crisscrossing the country to reach out directly to his supporters, showing up at rallies in states that should have been reliably Republican.
特朗普本周首先前往俄亥俄州进行竞选活动，在那里，民主党候选人谢罗德·布朗的民调一直领先于共和党候选人乔恩·赫斯特，后者一直承受着将其描述为“数据中心面孔”的负面广告的冲击。周二，特朗普飞往阿拉斯加的瓦西拉——曾是前州长兼副总统候选人莎拉·佩林的故乡——以帮助共和党参议员现任丹·沙利文，后者一直落后于民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉。
Trump started the week by hitting the trail in Ohio, where Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown has been polling consistently ahead of Republican Jon Husted, who has weathered negative ads branding him as "the face of data centers." On Tuesday, the president flew to Wasilla, Alaska—once the home of former governor and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin—to help the Republican Senate incumbent Dan Sullivan, who has been trailing Democrat Mary Peltola.
本周晚些时候，特朗普还将在亚利桑那州和肯塔基州举行竞选活动。之后，他计划在自己的海湖庄园为“MAGA Inc.”组织举办一场慈善晚宴，每位出席者的入场费高达100万美元，以此来补充日益告急的竞选资金。
And after stumping in Arizona and Kentucky later this week, Trump is set to host a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser dinner for MAGA Inc. at his Mar-a-Lago club, replenishing a war chest that is being emptied at an increasing rate.
据一位了解特朗普想法的人士向《Inner Loop》透露，特朗普始终坚信：只要亲自出马开展竞选活动，就能像2016年和2024年总统大选时那样，动员自己的支持者踊跃投票。
Trump has remained steadfast in his belief that he can drive his supporters to vote in November if he hits the trail, as he did in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, a person familiar with his thinking tells Inner Loop.
不过，尽管特朗普的支持率仍维持在历届总统中的最低水平，但他的竞选集会也并非总能受到欢迎。迄今为止，这位总统尚未与共和党候选人阿什莉·欣森在艾奥瓦州共同举办过任何集会。最近，欣森开始与特朗普立场相左，还呼吁采取切实措施以彻底结束与伊朗的战争。
But Trump, whose polling continues to be among the worst on record for any president, is not always wanted at rallies. To date, the president has not done a rally in Iowa with Republican candidate Ashley Hinson, who recently began to buck the president and called for measures that would help end the Iran war altogether.
本文为雨果·洛厄尔所撰《Inner Loop》通讯的其中一期。
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter.