距离中期选举还有不到三周的时间，候选人们最好已经想好了自己每天要说的内容。他们的竞选计划应该已经制定完毕，目标选民也明确确定了，资源也得到了合理分配，工作人员和志愿者也在积极行动——所有环节都应井然有序地进行。
With less than three weeks before the midterm elections, candidates had better know what they’ll say every day. Their battle plans should be well-defined by now, target voters in focus, resources well-deployed, staff and volunteers executing, everything hitting on every cylinder.
无论是共和党还是民主党的竞选团队，都寄希望于党内的领导人来帮助传达党的核心信息。对共和党来说，这些领导人包括特朗普总统以及共和党在国会中的领袖们；而民主党的众议院和参议院领袖虽然无法与白宫的强大影响力相抗衡，但他们仍期望这些领导人能够为竞选活动定下基调。那么，两党的表现如何呢？让我们先来看看共和党的情况。
All campaigns, Republican and Democratic, are counting on party leaders to help shape national messages. For Republicans, that means President Trump, then GOP congressional leaders. While Democratic House and Senate leaders can’t compete with the White House megaphone, the party’s candidates expect them to help set the tone. How are both sides doing? Let’s look at last week, starting with Republicans.
10月5日（上周一），特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，允许长途卡车司机使用“染色柴油”。这种柴油原本是用于农民的联合收割机和拖拉机，以及家庭取暖的。由于这种柴油并非用于高速公路行驶，因此无需缴纳每加仑24美分的联邦公路税。
Last Monday, Oct. 5, Mr. Trump issued an executive order allowing long-haul truckers to use “dyed diesel.”This is diesel meant for off-road use by farmers in combines and tractors and for home heating. Dyed diesel doesn’t pay the 24-cent-a-gallon federal highway tax, since it powers equipment that isn’t driven on highways.
对于不了解内情的听众来说，这听起来似乎是个不错的举措。不过，尽管卡车司机们对这一决定表示感谢，但实际上大部分染色柴油早已被燃料供应商分配给了他们的长期客户——农民和牧场主。尽管如此，特朗普总统的表态仍让人觉得他正在努力解决“物价可负担性”这个问题（这也是2026年大选中的一个重要议题）。
That sounded good to the untrained ear. But while truckers appreciate the gesture, most dyed diesel is already committed by fuel distributors to the farmers and ranchers who are their regular customers. Still, the president sounded as if he was doing something about “affordability,” the great 2026 watch word. But then things went south.
然而，情况随后变得糟糕起来。周二并没有什么重大新闻，但那些零星出现的消息却令人担忧：特朗普总统的两位主要政治顾问前往波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那，为一个得到克里姆林宫支持的政党提供咨询服务。美国两党的顾问们都知道，为外国政党提供咨询服务确实能带来可观的收入，但通常这类业务会在选举“淡季”进行，而不会在关键的美国选举的最后阶段进行。
No big news for Republicans on Tuesday, but what little emerged was troubling. The president’s two top political operatives had traveled to Bosnia and Herzegovina to pick up extra income consulting for a Kremlin-backed party in the breakaway region that styles itself Republika Srpska. U.S. consultants of both parties have found foreign campaigns to be lucrative but generally pursue such business “off season,” not in the final days of a crucial American campaign.
周三，《华尔街日报》爆出新闻称，美国驻希腊大使金伯利·吉尔福伊尔在2025年7月参议院确认听证会前不久，要求一名共和党捐款人为她还清美国运通卡上的10万美元债务。本周她辞职。
On Wednesday the Journal broke the news that the U.S. ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, asked a Republican donor to pay off $100,000 on her American Express card just before her Senate confirmation hearing in July 2025. This week she resigned.
周四，五角大楼宣布，胡德堡枪手——一名陆军军官，2009年在基地内杀害13人——将被执行死刑，方式为枪决，且其处决过程将进行直播。
On Thursday, the Pentagon announced the Fort Hood shooter, an Army officer who killed 13 on-base in 2009, will be executed by firing squad with his execution livestreamed.
同一天，政府暂停了八家科技公司的绿卡申请，其中包括微软和Adobe。副总统JD·万斯点名微软，指责其用“1.5名外国契约劳工”取代每一名被裁员的员工。周五，特朗普宣布将解除对俄罗斯柴油的制裁，这一举动可能违反美国法律。随后他在Truth Social上发文称，柴油价格“将大幅下降，创历史新低，且速度极快！”这极不可能实现。
That same day, the administration halted green-card applications for eight tech companies, including Microsoft and Adobe. Vice President JD Vance singled out Microsoft, accusing it of replacing every worker it laid off “with 1½ foreign indentured servants.”On Friday Mr. Trump announced he’d lift sanctions on Russian diesel, a move that may violate U.S. law. He then posted on Truth Social that diesel prices “will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”That’s very unlikely.
周六，特朗普抱怨自己未获得他渴望的奖项。他发文称：“我本应赢得8项诺贝尔和平奖。”当天晚些时候，他说：“我认为是时候让乌克兰换一位总统了。”周日，特朗普宣布俄乌之间实现能源停火。他断言，两国均不会袭击发电厂、电网或炼油厂。乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，这一消息对他来说是“新闻”，但若俄罗斯真正遵守该协议，乌克兰将支持暂停行动。俄罗斯随后袭击了乌克兰的电力系统，导致60万人断电。
On Saturday, Mr. Trump complained about not receiving an award he covets. “I should have won 8 Nobel Peace Prizes,” he posted. Later in the day, he said “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”On Sunday Mr. Trump declared an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries, he asserted, wouldn’t strike power plants, the grid or refineries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the announcement was “news to me” but indicated his nation would support the pause if Russia actually honored it. Russia struck the Ukrainian power system, leaving 600,000 without electricity.
对此，人们该作何评价？上周所说的内容对共和党候选人帮助甚微。白宫上周的大部分信息与说服摇摆选手无关。
What to make of all this? Little said last week will help GOP candidates. The bulk of White House messaging last week had nothing to do with swaying undecided voters.
但至少总统关于柴油的声明虽然“可负担性”影响存疑，却是具体的。对农业、能源和长途货运以外的人来说，这些声明可能显得有帮助。
But at least the president’s announcements about diesel, though of dubious “affordability” impact, were specific. To people outside agriculture, energy and long-haul freight, they might have seemed helpful.
民主党的全国性信息传递又如何？根本不存在，因为没有明确的民主党议程。6月，众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯任命了五个工作组来制定一个。医疗保健工作组已经向他汇报了。但任何工作组的建议尚未公开。
What about Democratic national messaging? There is none, because there is no clear Democratic agenda. In June House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries appointed five task forces to develop one. The healthcare task force already reported to him. But no recommendations from any group have been made public.
显而易见的是，民主党正在赌，攻击特朗普先生就够了，他们并不关心自己的议程。他们几乎肯定是对的：民主党将夺回众议院，而参议院的胜负难料。但没有议程的胜利会付出代价。民主党将没有授权去推行他们所追求的任何政策，也没有一个全国性框架所能提供的团结和目标。反对特朗普先生可能会让民主党拿到议事锤。但它不会给他们一个方向。
It’s obvious what’s going on. Democrats are betting that trashing Mr. Trump is enough and don’t care about their agendas. They’re almost certainly right: Democrats will flip the House, and the Senate is a toss-up. But victory without an agenda carries a cost. Democrats will have no mandate for whatever policies they pursue, and none of the unity and purpose a national framework would have provided. Opposition to Mr. Trump may hand Democrats the gavel. It won’t give them a direction.
罗夫先生曾是乔治·W·布什总统的高级顾问和副幕僚长，也是《威廉·麦金莱的胜利》（西蒙与舒斯特，2015）一书的作者。
Mr. Rove was senior adviser and deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
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