
华盛顿——随着选举地图不断扩大,共和党正陷入防守状态,在中期选举最后几周投入数亿美元,以防止民主党夺取国会控制权,全国各地的竞选活动正达到白热化阶段。
WASHINGTON—Republicans are playing defense on an expanding electoral map, spending hundreds of millions of dollars in the final weeks of the midterms to prevent a Democratic takeover of Congress as campaigns nationwide reach a fever pitch.
距离中期选举仅剩不到三周,资金雄厚的共和党团体正试图帮助挣扎中的候选人冲过终点线,而特朗普总统和副总统JD·万斯则在全国各地奔波,以巩固共和党在传统红州的支持——这些地区仅几个月前还被认为几乎无法撼动。
With less than three weeks until the midterms, deep-pocketed GOP groups are trying to push struggling candidates over the finish line, while President Trump and Vice President JD Vance are crisscrossing the country to shore up Republican support in red areas that seemed virtually unassailable just months ago.
民主党正努力利用特朗普低迷的支持率以及伊朗战争后出现的经济担忧,将他们的目标地图扩展到更多传统上倾向共和党的地区。这迫使共和党不得不投入巨额资金来捍卫传统安全的红州席位,同时也试图在密歇根州和新罕布什尔州等摇摆州夺取一些席位,以遏制在自身腹地可能出现的损失。
Democrats, working to capitalize on Trump’s weak approval ratings and economic concerns in the wake of the war in Iran, have expanded their target map into more Republican-leaning territory. That has forced Republicans to pour in massive sums to defend traditionally safe red seats, while also attempting to pick off some seats in purple states such as Michigan and New Hampshire to help stanch potential losses on their home turf.
在竞选季节的最后几天,共和党希望金钱和选举地图的结构性优势能够支撑他们——并且民调可能出错。但焦虑情绪正在升温。
In the waning days of campaign season, Republicans hope money and structural advantages in the electoral map will buoy them—and that polls are wrong. But anxiety is running high.
“众议院已经没了。早就没了,”共和党策划师道格·海耶说。他表示,鉴于特朗普的低支持率,民主党有可能在11月翻转30个席位,并补充说他看不出总统的集会能起到什么帮助作用。与此同时,民主党对他们的前景感到乐观。
“The House is gone. It’s been long gone” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist. He said that Democrats could potentially flip 30 seats in November given Trump’s low favorability, adding that he didn’t see the president’s rallies helping. Meanwhile, Democrats are feeling optimistic about their prospects.
“感觉就像整个美国都是战场州,”为《华尔街日报》进行民调的民主党民调专家约翰·安扎洛尼说。“一切都可能发生变化。”非党派的《库克政治报告》最近表示,最可能的结果是民主党净赢得九到十九个众议院席位。目前共和党在众议院以219比214领先,另有两个席位空缺。库克将七场参议院竞赛列为摇摆州——其中六场目前由共和党占据。共和党在参议院目前以53比47领先。
“It just feels like America is the battleground state,” said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct The Wall Street Journal’s surveys. “Everything is up for grabs.”The nonpartisan Cook Political Report said recently that the most likely outcome is Democrats flipping a net of nine to 19 House seats. Republicans currently have a 219 to 214 majority, with two vacancies. Cook ranks seven Senate races as tossups—six of which are currently held by Republicans. The GOP has a 53-47 majority in that chamber.
选民们已经在全国多个州开始投票,包括亚利桑那州、爱荷华州和堪萨斯州。佐治亚州的选民周二首日提前投票人数创纪录,现场投票超过18.8万张,打破了2022年中期选举的纪录,州务卿办公室表示。佐治亚州是一个摇摆州,今年参议院和州长选举竞争激烈。
Voters are already casting their ballots in several states across the country, including Arizona, Iowa and Kansas. In Georgia, voters set a first-day early voting record on Tuesday, with more than 188,000 ballots cast in person, beating the record set in the 2022 midterms, the secretary of state’s office said. Georgia, a battleground state, has competitive Senate and governor races this year.

特朗普一直在呼吁选民像他本人也在选票上一样踊跃投票,周三他在亚利桑那州举行集会,该州众议院和州长选举同样竞争激烈。在此之前,他一周内先后访问了俄亥俄州和阿拉斯加,旨在提升共和党参议员Jon Husted和Dan Sullivan的竞选势头。
Trump, who has continued to urge voters to turn out as if he was on the ballot, rallied Wednesday in Arizona, where there are competitive House and governor races, after stops earlier in the week in Ohio and Alaska to try to shore up the campaigns of GOP Sens. Jon Husted and Dan Sullivan, respectively.
特朗普计划下周在北卡罗来纳州开展竞选活动,该州他发起的重新划分选区导致至少一名现任议员面临更大风险。北卡罗来纳州共和党众议员Greg Murphy因选区失去共和党选民,其选区原本旨在提升共和党前景的重新划分后,如今面临比预期更激烈的竞选。
Trump is set to campaign next week in North Carolina, where the effects of the Trump-initiated redistricting are making at least one of their incumbents more vulnerable. Republican Rep. Greg Murphy of North Carolina is facing a more competitive race than expected after his district lost Republican voters, following map changes that were meant to boost GOP fortunes.
周二晚上,佐治亚州、缅因州和爱荷华州的标志性参议院选举候选人全部参加了辩论。佐治亚州民主党参议员Jon Ossoff和缅因州共和党参议员Susan Collins均为现任议员,正努力保住席位——而爱荷华州是一个空缺席位的竞选。三场选举中的民主党人均指责共和党在伊朗战争和高物价问题上立场不当。
On Tuesday night, Senate candidates from marquee races in Georgia, Maine and Iowa all faced off in debates. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine are both incumbents fighting to keep their seats—and Iowa is an open race. Democrats in all three contests attacked Republicans over the Iran war and high prices.
特朗普第二任期最后两年国会的控制权可能对其议程产生重大影响,并决定哪一方在为2028年总统选举积累势头方面更具优势。
Control of Congress during the final two years of Trump’s second term could have major implications for his agenda and shape how much momentum either party has looking to the 2028 presidential election.

共和党正在利用其资金优势,向全国各地的选举投入数亿美元。然而,尽管资金持续注入,民调尚未显示出高关注度竞选中的显著变化,关键参议院选举基本保持不变。
Republicans are flexing their money advantage over Democrats and throwing hundreds of millions of dollars into races across the country. Still, polls haven’t shown significant shifts in high-profile contests since more money started pumping in, with key Senate races largely unchanged.
“我们需要看到的是这些广告资金转化为选民热情,”共和党策略师马克·贝德纳尔说,并指出民主党和共和党选民之间存在持续的选民热情差距。“共和党选民需要在这最后阶段变得兴奋起来。”共和党在本轮选举周期开始时在资金方面具有显著优势。根据广告追踪公司AdImpact的一份新报告,在八个竞争激烈的参议院选举中——俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州、缅因州、密歇根州、爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州、新罕布什尔州和堪萨斯州——共和党广告商的支出几乎比民主党多出2.98亿美元。
“What we need to see is those ad dollars transferring into voter enthusiasm,” said Mark Bednar, a Republican strategist, pointing out a consistent voter enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters. “Republican voters need to get excited in this final stretch.”Republicans entered this election cycle with a significant advantage on money. GOP advertisers have outspent Democrats by almost $298 million across eight competitive Senate races—Ohio, Texas, Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, New Hampshire and Kansas, according to a new report from ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
该报告发现,俄亥俄州赫斯特德与前参议员谢罗德·布朗之间的参议院竞选是本轮选举周期中广告支出最高的参议院大选,广告支出超过4.22亿美元。
The Senate race in Ohio between Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown is the most expensive Senate general election this cycle in terms of ad spending, with more than $422 million spent, the report found.
得克萨斯州民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科与共和党州司法部长肯·帕克斯顿之间的对决排名第二——而且这是共和党远超民主党支出的一个例子。报告发现,外部共和党团体在大选中已投入超过2.09亿美元。其中大部分资金来自得克萨斯州政治行动委员会(Texas PAC),该委员会由参议院领导基金运营,而参议院领导基金是一个与参议院共和党人结盟的大捐款人集团。
The matchup between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas came in second—and is one where Republicans are dramatically outspending Democrats. Outside Republican groups have poured in over $209 million in the general election, the report found. Much of that money is coming from Texas PAC, a political-action committee run by the Senate Leadership Fund, the big-donor group aligned with Senate Republicans.

上周,参议院领导基金将更多资金转向得克萨斯州参议院竞选。与其致力于重塑帕克斯顿的形象——他面临诸多法律和道德丑闻——共和党的支出则集中在试图抹黑塔拉利科,据一位参与参议院竞选的共和党人士透露。
Last week, the Senate Leadership Fund shifted more money toward the Texas Senate race. Rather than working to rehabilitate Paxton’s image, as he has faced a number of legal and ethical scandals, Republican spending has focused on trying to tear down Talarico, according to a Republican working on Senate races.
尽管共和党在参议院和众议院竞选中进行了激进的支出,但民主党仍在努力扩大其目标竞选的范围。
Despite the aggressive Republican spending in both Senate and House races, Democrats have sought to expand their map of target races.
在民主党国会竞选委员会周五发布的一份捐款人备忘录中,该委员会众议院竞选部门的执行主任朱莉·梅尔茨提出,如果该组织能在10月22日前再筹集1700万美元,该党就能参与更多竞选。
In a donor memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Friday, the House Democratic campaign arm’s executive director, Julie Merz, made the pitch that if the group can raise an additional $17 million by Oct. 22, the party can play in more races.
“我们需要更多资源来在这些可赢得的选区完成销售,”梅尔茨写道。
“We need more resources to close the sale in these winnable seats,” wrote Merz.
该信件提到的竞选包括佛罗里达州第27个国会选区,共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔正在抵御民主党挑战者埃利奥特·罗德里格斯的冲击,以及南卡罗来纳州第1个选区,众议院共和党阵营的国会领导基金目前正在该地区进行支出。
The letter cited races such as Florida’s 27th Congressional District, where GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is fighting off Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez as well as South Carolina’s 1st District, where the House Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund is now spending.
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