三个月前，特洛伊·杰克逊的政治前途似乎已破灭，这位前州参议员在缅因州民主党州长初选中仅获得第三名。但随后出现了一场剧情反转，速度之快若是编成剧本，好莱坞都会嫌太离奇。在格雷厄姆·普拉特纳突然倒台后，杰克逊成为了该党竞逐联邦参议员的旗手，面临击败共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯的艰巨任务。
Three months ago, Troy Jackson’s hopes of political success seemed dashed, as the former state senator finished third in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary. But then came a reversal of fortune so rapid that, if it were a script, Hollywood would reject it as too fanciful. After Graham Platner’s sudden fall, Jackson became the party’s standard-bearer for the U.S. Senate, facing the difficult task of beating Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
现在，一项新民调提供了现实检验。最新的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，柯林斯以49%对46%领先（尽管在误差范围内）。随着参议院控制权悬而未决，这项民调在希望参议院能制衡唐纳德·特朗普总统的民主党人中敲响了警钟。但总统的对手不必恐慌。
Now a new poll has provided a reality check. The latest New York Times/Siena survey shows Collins ahead (though within the margin of error), 49%-46%. With control of the Senate in the balance, the poll set off alarm bells among Democrats hoping the upper chamber will be a check on President Donald Trump. But the president’s opponents shouldn’t panic.
同一天发布的另外两项民调在内的其他调查显示，杰克逊领先或打平。而且无论任何一天民调显示什么，凡涉及柯林斯的竞选，一直以来都注定是一场势均力敌的较量，直到最后一刻。柯林斯的攻势迅猛凶狠，且她一方拥有相当大的资金优势。
Other surveys including two released the same day, show Jackson leading or tied. And regardless of what the polls say on any given day, any race involving Collins was always going to be a true toss-up right till the end. Collins’ attacks have come fast and furious, and her side has a considerable cash advantage.
在她之前的五次参议员竞选中，柯林斯每次都凭借喜欢并尊重她的分裂票选民获胜。六年前，当乔·拜登以53%对44%击败特朗普时，柯林斯以51%对42%战胜了民主党人萨拉·吉迪恩。《时报》的民调显示出类似动态：特朗普的支持率仅为32%，55%的受访者希望民主党控制参议院。然而柯林斯却在领先。
In each of her five previous Senate races, Collins has won with ticket-splitting voters who like and respect her. Six years ago, as Joe Biden was beating Trump 53%-44% Collins prevailed over Democrat Sara Gideon, 51%-42% The Times survey shows a similar dynamic: Trump’s approval rating is just 32%, and 55% of the respondents want Democrats to control the Senate. Yet Collins is leading.
柯林斯的竞选策略包含四个要素：持续不断地攻击对手；以愤慨和抗议不公回应批评；坚称自己两党合作、立场中间；以及吹嘘她为州内小型项目争取到的联邦资金。
Collins’ campaigns include four elements: relentlessly attacking her opponents; responding to criticism with outrage and protestations about its unfairness; insisting that she’s bipartisan and centrist; and touting federal money she has secured for small-bore projects in the state.
缅因州选民就关键参议院竞选发表看法 2026年9月23日 第一点在今年尤为重要。由于杰克逊在竞选后期才成为提名人，一直在争夺如何定义他。
Maine voters weigh in on key Senate race September 23, 2026 The first point is especially important this year. Since Jackson became the nominee late in the campaign, there’s been a race to define him.
他的竞选活动亟需重新振作起来。杰克逊着重强调自己作为第五代伐木工人、工会活动家以及普通劳动阶层的背景。不过，他很少提及自己在缅因州议会所取得的成绩，包括担任州参议院议长期间的贡献。这或许对他不利：根据《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合开展的民调，54%的受访者认为柯林斯更有可能成为出色的领导者，而仅有43%的人对杰克逊抱有同样看法。
His campaign had to jump-start his effort. Jackson stressed his biography as a fifth-generation logger, union activist and working-class person. However, he’s done little to talk about his accomplishments in the Maine legislature, including as president of the state Senate. That may have hurt him, as the Times/Siena poll found that 54% of respondents saw Collins as the candidate more likely to be an effective leader, while only 43% said the same for Jackson.
不过，柯林斯竞选宣传的核心内容，则是她如何以切实可行的方式为缅因州带来福祉。
The core of Collins’ case for herself, though, focuses on how she’s helped Maine in small, concrete ways.
柯林斯方面发起了密集且猛烈的攻击，其竞选资金也远多于对手。大量资金来自各类超级政治行动委员会，其中包括由埃隆·马斯克资助的一个委员会，以及由与柯林斯丈夫关系密切、长期担任其盟友的斯科特·里德所运作的委员会。选民们能看到杰克逊怒气冲冲的照片，配文为“特洛伊·杰克逊：又一个腐败政客”。这些广告声称杰克逊涉嫌房贷欺诈、违规报销差旅费用，其担任游说员的儿子也存在滥用职权行为，但这些指控经不起推敲。
不过由于反复播放且杰克逊阵营几乎没有予以反驳，这些负面印象可能已在选民心中扎根。
Collins’ attacks have come fast and furious, and her side has a considerable cash advantage. Much of the spending comes from super PACs including one funded by Elon Musk and another run by long-time ally Scott Reed who has ties to Collins’ husband. Voters see angry-looking pictures of Jackson, with the message “Troy Jackson: Just another dirty politician.”The ads’ underlying claims of mortgage fraud, improper travel reimbursements and influence peddling by his son, a lobbyist, don’t stand up to scrutiny But they may be sticking, thanks to relentless repetition and little pushback from the Jackson campaign.
相比之下，杰克逊阵营则致力于打破选民心中柯林斯干练且善于跨党派合作的固有印象。选民们频繁看到这样的广告：柯林斯“96%的时间都与特朗普站在一边”。这一策略似乎初见成效：杰克逊阵营强调柯林斯曾支持大幅削减医疗预算，而上述民调也显示，略微更多的选民（49%对46%）认为杰克逊在医疗政策方面更为称职。
The Democrat instead has focused on dislodging the image many voters have of Collins as competent and bipartisan. Voters are hearing commercials telling them — repeatedly — that Collins“voted with Trump 96% of the time.”There’s some evidence that this is working: The Jackson campaign emphasizes that Collins contributed to big healthcare funding cuts, for example, and in the Times/Siena poll slightly more voters (49%-46%) see Jackson as more effective on healthcare.
“真的很糟糕”：缅因州的经济前景如何影响其关键的参议院选举Collins在确认巴瑞特·卡瓦纳(Brett Kavanaugh)上任最高法院法官时所表现出的中间派立场遭到了打击，尤其是当卡瓦纳和另外三位 Collins支持的法官投票推翻罗诉华盛顿案(Roe v. Wade)时。这些杰克逊广告中展示了年长的女性，她们谈论着自己以前曾经投票支持Collins，但现在无法再这样做。这是一个杰克逊需要赢得的重要摆动选民群体。
‘Really Grim’: How Maine’s economic outlook is affecting its crucial Senate race Collins’ centrist credentials took a hit when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, especially when Kavanaugh and three other justices Collins backed voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Jackson ads feature older women who talk about how they voted for Collins before but can’t again. That’s an important swing demographic he needs to win.
然而，Collins为自己辩护的核心在于她如何以小而具体的方式帮助了缅因州。州外的观察者可能不会听到Collins的这部分论点，但她通过无数次的合影机会和广告向缅因州选民强调这一点。正如Times/Siena民调所显示的那样，这仍然是她的论点的优势之处：59%的受访者认为她更善于“为缅因州带来资金和资源”，而只有35%的人会这样评价杰克逊。
The core of Collins’ case for herself, though, focuses on how she’s helped Maine in small, concrete ways. Observers outside the state may not hear this part of Collins’ argument much, but she reinforces it to Maine voters with countless photo ops and ads. As the Times/Siena poll shows, that remains a strength of her pitch: 59% see her as better at “bringing money and resources to Maine,” while only 35% say that of Jackson.
Collins已经要求特朗普政府调动东北地区家用煤油储备，以抵制价格上涨，但这究竟能提供多少帮助还有待观察。
Collins has asked the Trump administration to tap the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to stem price hikes, but it’s unclear how much that would help.
然而，杰克逊指出，Collins支持的减税幅度超过了她为州井引入的资金。他还谈到了许多缅因人因关税和伊朗战争而受到的困扰——这既驳斥了Collins的观点，也将她与不受欢迎的特朗普联系在一起。
Jackson, however, points out that the cuts Collins backed outweigh the funds she brought in. He also talks about how many Mainers are hurting because of tariffs and the Iran war — simultaneously rebutting Collins and tying her to the unpopular Trump.
缅因州地广人多，人们不得不开车较多，因此需要经常加油。接下来几周可能会出现另一个与战争相关的费用问题：为了应对漫长的寒冷冬季，缅因人高度依赖家用取暖油，令人震惊的是，这种取暖油的价格比去年上涨了81%。柯林斯甚至要求特朗普政府听取缅因选民对生活成成增长的意见。
Maine is a sprawling state, so people have to drive a lot and need to fill up their vehicles often. Another war-related cost could become more relevant in the coming weeks: To counter the long, cold winter, Maine people are highly reliant on home heating oil, which shockingly is costing 81% more than it did a year ago. Collins has even asked the Trump administration Maine voters weigh in on the rising cost of living In another development that could shape the race’s final weeks, a new ProPublica report with copious documentation alleged a pay-to-play corruption scheme involving Collins, her staff and a defense contractor.
在另一方面可能影响比赛最后几周的消息中，一份新近的ProPublica报告（附有大量文献证据）指控柯林斯、她的办公室人员以及一家国防承包商之间存在收受贿赂以谋取利益的腐败 scheme。柯林斯及其办公室否认了这些指控，但该消息已引发广泛关注。
Collins and her office denied the allegations but the story has gotten widesp Finally, Jackson has a grassroots energy Collins lacks.
最后，杰克逊具有柯林斯所缺乏的草根活力。他正在缅因州走动，举办镇民公开会议，甚至与选民一起跳 contra 舞。他还与其他民主党候选人共同举办活动。他动员了数千名志愿者正在与缅因人交谈。相比之下，柯林斯的竞选活动更多依赖广告和一种类似“表面文章”的巴士巡回活动，他们会在不事先通知公众的情况下将戴着竞选衫、举着标语牌的人们运到现场，然后纷纷下车为她欢呼。
He is out in Maine, doing town halls and even contra dancing with voters. He’s also holding events with other Democratic candidates. He has mobilized thousands of volunteers who are talking to Mainers. In contrast, the Collins campaign leans on ads and a Potemkin village-esque bus tour that carts people with campaign shirts and signs to locations unannounced to the broader public, where they pile out and cheer her While the president is widely disliked in Maine and Mainers want Democrats in charge of the Senate, the race is still likely to stay close and competitive.
尽管总统在缅因州广受厌恶，而缅因人希望民主党掌控参议院，但这场竞选仍有可能紧咬分差激烈竞争。柯林斯在资金上具有明显优势，拥有完善的形象和战略。击败一位长期担任要职的候选人并不容易，这对于苏珊·柯林斯来说一直是这样。缅因州将于10月5日开始提前投票，但这场竞选的胜负仍将悬念到选举日。
Collins has a big lead in money and a well-developed image and strategy. Defeating a longtime incumbent can be tough, and that’s long been true with Susan Collins. Early voting begins in Maine on Oct. 5, but this race will hang in the balance right through Election Day.
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