在2026年中期选举周期的很大一部分时间里，唐纳德·特朗普一直坚持认为，保持“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）基本盘的活力，是共和党人寻求保住国会控制权的关键。他尤其坚持认为，将中期选举变成一场关于他个人的公投（这是他与民主党人罕见达成共识的目标），是让MAGA选民在11月涌向投票站的唯一途径。“假装我在选票上”是他近来的口头禅，这进一步强化了他本月初通过中期共和党大会所进行的自我造势。
For much of the 2026 midterm-election cycle, Donald Trump has maintained that keeping the MAGA base energized would be the key for Republicans seeking to keep control of Congress. And he’s been especially insistent that making the midterms about himself (a rare goal he shares with Democrats) is the only way to get MAGA voters to flock to the polls in November. “Pretend I’m on the ballot” has been his mantra of late, reinforcing the self-celebration he staged by way of a midterm Republican convention earlier this month.
如果总统将全部精力集中在那些竞争激烈的州，试图制造一场（不太可能的）MAGA超级投票热潮，那么这种令人怀疑的策略或许还有些道理，毕竟在这些州，对他第二个任期失败的反弹已使民主党控制国会几乎成为定局。然而，据《政治报》最近报道，他的行程安排却是飞往深红地区为共和党竞选：保守派的大本营——包括阿拉巴马州、阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州——需要特朗普的明星效应，总统的到访可能会说服他的一些铁杆支持者前往投票。
This dubious strategy might have made some sense if the president was hyperfocused on producing an (improbable) mega-MAGA turnout in the highly competitive states where a backlash to his second-term failures has made a Democratic Congress all but certain.
但每一次为了在红色堡垒中进行防御而进行的访问，都剥夺了共和党在传统竞争激烈的州让民主党陷入被动的机会……“问题在于，现在到处都在起火，”一位共和党捐款人说道。像本文中提到的其他人一样，为了能坦诚地谈论该党的前景，他被要求匿名。
Instead, his travel schedule has him flying around to campaign for the GOP in deep-red territory, as Politico recently reported:
就在本周，特朗普正在阿拉巴马州、俄克拉荷马州和俄亥俄州进行竞选活动——两年前，他在这三个州分别以30%、34%和11%的得票率优势获胜。没错，阿拉巴马州和俄克拉荷马州确实有一些脆弱的众议院席位，但这恰恰表明共和党为自己挖了多深的坑。前往俄亥俄州的行程或许更有道理；那里有岌岌可危但仍有可能获胜的参议院和众议院选区，还有一场胶着的州长竞选（他的偶尔搭档维韦克·拉马斯瓦米也参与其中）。
Bastions of conservatism — including Alabama, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — need Trump’s star power, and a visit by the president could persuade some of his most die-hard supporters to turn out to the polls.
然而，在任何红州（包括爱荷华州和得克萨斯州，那里有数量惊人的“危机”正在灼烧共和党候选人）花费的时间，都是从亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州等摇摆州中剥夺的时间。2026年中期选举在很大程度上是在总统所在政党的本土地盘上进行的，这导致大量高度竞争的选区无人问津。
而且，特朗普似乎特别在试图减少损失，而非争取胜利，对于一位痴迷于“赢”的政治家来说，这是一个极坏的信号。
But each trip to play defense in red strongholds robs the GOP of a chance to put Democrats on the back foot in states that are traditionally competitive …“The problem is that the fires are everywhere right now,” said one GOP donor, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s prospects.
目前，共和党整体中期选举努力显得异常慌乱。所有指标都显示，总统所在的政党极易受到2024年特朗普选民因生活成本问题而倒戈的影响。他本人不断将此类担忧斥为“骗局”，并暗示选民应感激经济“黄金时代”，这导致他的国会盟友们手忙脚乱，试图寻找某种看起来像特朗普所否认的“可负担性议程”的东西。
This very week, Trump is campaigning in Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio — states he carried by 30 percent, 34 percent and 11 percent just two years ago. Yes, there are vulnerable House seats in Alabama and Oklahoma, but that’s a sign of how deep a hole the GOP has dug for itself. A trip to Ohio is arguably more justifiable; there are highly endangered but still winnable Senate and House races along with a close gubernatorial contest (featuring his occasional sidekick Vivek Ramaswamy). But time spent in any red state (including Iowa and Texas, where there are an extraordinary number of “fires” scorching Republican candidates) is time denied in purple states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The 2026 midterms are to a very dangerous extent being fought on the home turf of the president’s party, leaving too much highly contested ground uncovered. And it’s beginning to look like Trump in particular may be simply trying to mitigate losses rather than to win, which for a politician obsessed with “winning” is a terrible sign.
参议院正在审议一项《纳税人保护法案》（Ratepayer Protection Act）。该法案试图以较为模糊的方式应对那些关于数据中心对电费影响的担忧（不过目前公众对数据中心和人工智能技术的担忧其实要广泛得多、也深刻得多）。实际上，这项法案的真正目的是为了挽救该法案的主要提案者——俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯泰德（Jon Husted）的政治前途。
There’s something more than a little frantic about the GOP’s overall midterm effort at present. Every single indicator shows that the president’s party is deeply vulnerable to 2024 Trump-voter defections over living costs.
赫斯泰德过去曾大力支持数据中心的发展，但这反而对他的竞选活动造成了严重负面影响，因此他迫切需要通过这项立法来挽回支持者的信任。尽管该法案的内容非常有限，但在参议院的审议过程中，它仍不得不与那些与大学体育相关的立法项目争夺发言机会。路易斯安那州共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪（John Kennedy）说：“我们整个星期都在努力让那些足球教练们满意……我会投票支持这项法案，但我可以保证，美国各地的家长们晚上睡觉时肯定不会担心那些足球教练的事情。”
His own constant dismissal of such concerns as a “hoax” and his suggestions that voters should be grateful for an economic “golden age” have left his congressional allies scrambling for something that looks like the “affordability agenda” Trump has denied them.
特朗普本人也采取了一些笨拙的措施来试图赢回那些转投反对派的选民的支持。对于爱荷华州的选民来说，他宣布将在2030年建立一个由联邦政府提供资助的、耗资150亿美元的钢铁厂；不过这对他们来说显然帮不上什么忙（因为这个项目距离实施还有很长的时间）。更直接一些的措施是，他提议禁止柴油出口，以帮助因特朗普发动的伊朗战争而导致燃料价格飙升的农民们。
There’s a Ratepayer Protection Act moving in the Senate that seems designed to address in a rather vague manner increasingly outmoded concerns about data-center impact on electricity bills (there are much broader and deeper public fears about data centers and AI generally right now). But it’s actually an attempt to save the chief sponsor of the legislation, Republican senator Jon Husted of Ohio, whose egregious cheerleading for data centers in the past is wrecking his campaign, making him desperate for a legislative trophy. And meager as it is, the bill has had to fight for Senate floor time with college-sports legislation. “We’ve been spending all week on trying to make the football coaches happy,” Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, said. “I’m voting for the bill, but I can assure that moms and dads out there across America, when they lie down to sleep at night … they’re not worried about the football coaches.”Trump himself has deployed notably ham-handed measures to try to buy back loyalty from defecting voters. For Iowans, he’s announced a federally assisted $15 billion steel mill to open in 2030, a bit late to help any voters in the near term.
特朗普还曾公开表示，如果选民投票支持他，他会在中期选举之后给他们发放5000美元的奖金；不过这一提议遭到了许多共和党人的嘲笑，民意调查显示几乎没有选民相信这真的会发生。
More immediately, he’s proposed a diesel-export ban intended to help farmers in Iowa and across the Midwest upset by high fuel prices spurred by Trump’s Iran war. Trump more famously suggested that if voters vote the right way, he’ll reward them with a $5,000 check at some point after the midterms. But aside from being roundly mocked by many Republicans, polls show very few voters believe it will ever happen.
目前，所有共和党人都认同的一点是：巨额的竞选开支才是特朗普中期选举策略的核心。然而，正如CNN所报道的那样，捍卫自己的选区（即所谓的“红色选区”）仍然是他们面临的一个重大挑战。
The one money expenditure all Republicans can agree on is the real heart of Trump’s midterm strategy at this point: massive campaign spending. Even in this respect, however, the need to defend red turf is a big problem, as CNN reports:
从9月初到选举日，共和党阵营的组织计划投入1.66亿美元，为得克萨斯州总检察长竞选助力。这一金额超过了他们拟在密歇根州和缅因州竞争激烈的参议院竞选中投入的总和，分别为8300万美元和6100万美元。
From the start of September through Election Day, Republican-aligned groups are planning to spend $166 million to boost the Texas attorney general — more than they’re set to spend than on competitive Senate campaigns in Michigan, $83 million, and Maine, $61 million, combined.
得克萨斯州的参议院选举已成为共和党的资金黑洞，尤其是在多个共和党组织投入数千万美元、试图在初选中击败帕克斯顿之后。总体来看，共和党阵营预计将在“孤星之州”投入逾3亿美元。
The Senate contest in Texas has become a Republican money pit, particularly after a collection of GOP groups spent tens of millions of dollars trying to take Paxton down in the primary. All told, the total GOP-aligned bill in the Lone Star State is expected to exceed $300 million.
特朗普的中期选举战略是否会成为共和党的负担，以及这笔投入能否取得预期效果，目前都完全不清楚。
It’s not at all clear that Trump’s midterm strategy is affordable for the Republican Party or that it will get what it’s paid for.