关键在于人,笨蛋。大多数关于佐兰·马姆达尼(Zohran Mamdani)竞选纽约市长的评论都集中在政策、技术和个人魅力上。租金冻结、免费公交和全民托儿服务是关键吗?还是说胜利取决于一位天赋异禀的候选人、更令人难忘的视频、脆弱的竞争对手,或是对现状的不满?
It’s the people, stupid. Most commentary on Zohran Mamdani’s campaign for mayor of New York City focuses on policy, technology, and charisma. Were rent freezes, free buses, and universal childcare the key? Or did victory depend on an unusually gifted candidate, more memorable videos, vulnerable opponents, or dissatisfaction with the status quo?
这些都很重要。但没有任何一点能解释一场市长竞选是如何在大规模范围内产生如此新鲜、有组织且持续的公民参与的。这场竞选不仅仅是在谈论民众,依靠民意调查将他们的观点转化为营销数据。它通过邀请人们参与竞选本身的创建来与民众互动——通过这种方式,选票得以确保,执政权力得以产生。这104,000名志愿者不仅仅是在背诵由某位营销专家设计的“信息”。
All of this mattered. But none can explain how a campaign for mayor could generate such fresh, organized, and sustained civic engagement at scale. The campaign did not only talk about people, relying on polling to turn their opinions into marketing data. It engaged with people by inviting them to join in creating the campaign itself—through which votes are secured and governing power generated. The 104,000 volunteers didn’t just recite a “message” devised by some marketing pro.
他们承担起了领导社区拉票、招募人员拉票、指导志愿者引导对话以及赞美他们所在社区的责任。这场竞选不仅在传播内容上,而且在传播者是谁、他们如何传播以及他们正在构建什么方面都脱颖而出:那就是重塑了基层力量。
They accepted responsibility for leading neighborhood canvassing, recruiting people to canvass, coaching volunteers to lead conversations, and celebrating their communities. The campaign distinguished itself not only in what it communicated, but in who communicated, how they communicated, and what they were building: renewed grassroots muscle.
政治如何演变成一个产业三十年前,我就曾警告过:新技术与日益扩大的选举市场的结合正在破坏民主政治。竞选活动开始针对个别选民进行单向信息传递,对选民的要求更多地是让他们成为资金提供者,而非积极参与政治活动的公民;志愿者的作用被付费的竞选工作人员所取代,竞选活动的领导权也交给了高薪顾问手中。
How Politics Became an Industry Thirty years ago, I warned that the interaction of new technology with an expanding electoral marketplace was destroying democratic politics. Campaigns began to target individual voters for one-way messaging, asking less of them as citizens and more as funders, replacing motivated volunteers with paid canvassers, and deferring campaign leadership to highly paid consultants.
我将这种现象称为“将选民置于政治权力的目标之下”。这一转变早已开始,但1976年美国最高法院在“Buckley v. Valeo”案中的裁决却认为,对竞选支出的限制会限制政治表达的自由——换句话说,金钱本身就是一种政治表达方式。电视、民意调查、直邮宣传以及专业咨询服务都在不断改变着竞选活动的运作方式。该裁决为对金钱的日益依赖提供了宪法上的保护;而后续的一系列裁决(最终以“Citizens United”案为代表)进一步加速了这一进程。
I called it putting “voters in the crosshairs.”The transformation was already underway, but the Supreme Court’s 1976 decision in Buckley v. Valeo held that expenditure limits would constrain political expression—i.e., money is speech. Television, polling, direct mail, and professional consulting were already changing campaigns. Buckley gave constitutional protection to an accelerating demand for money—the fuel for an industry whose revenues grow with the cost of elections. Later decisions, culminating in Citizens United, accelerated the process even more.
仅联邦选举的支出在2024年就达到了160亿美元。再加上州和地方选举的开支,以及庞大的筹款体系、数据分析能力、媒体资源及专业咨询服务,整个政治领域逐渐发展成为一个依赖持续增加的竞选支出的庞大产业。
Federal election spending alone approached $16 billion in 2024. Add state and local races and the permanent apparatus of fundraising, data, media, and consulting, and the result is a vast industry dependent on continuously expanding political expenditure.
过去,候选人主要依靠政党、工会、教会、民间组织、社区领袖等有组织的力量来接触选民。然而这些机构本身也并非完全无辜:它们可能存在腐败现象,具有强制性和排他性;某些民间组织还会基于种族、性别、宗教或社会阶层来排斥某些选民。我的目的并不是美化那个时代。
Candidates once depended on parties, unions, churches, civic associations, neighborhood leaders, and other organized constituencies to reach voters. These institutions were hardly innocent. Political machines could be corrupt, coercive, and exclusionary, and civic associations excluded Americans by race, gender, religion, or class. The point is not to romanticize that world.
但候选人对有组织选民群体的依赖,曾使他们有能力去落实真正的问责。竞选团队后来发现,通过聘请民调专家、顾问、广告公司、筹款专员、数据供应商以及付费拉票团队,他们可以规避这种问责——而所有这些都需要花钱。对有组织民众的问责,被对有组织资金的问责所取代。竞选活动变成了对选民的单向宣讲,而非倾听,更谈不上邀请选民去行使判断力或分担政治工作的责任。
But the dependency of candidates on organized constituencies gave them the leverage to exercise real accountability. Campaigns learned they could avoid that accountability by hiring pollsters, consultants, advertising firms, fundraising specialists, data vendors, and paid canvassing operations—all of which had to be paid for. Accountability to organized people was exchanged for accountability to organized money. Campaigns spoke at voters rather than listening to them, much less inviting them to exercise their judgment or share responsibility for political work.
公民被重塑为消费者。成员变成了名单,会费变成了捐款,地方领袖变成了网红,对话变成了信息推送,政治教育变成了精准投放,而组织则变成了选举期间租用、选后即拆除的数字基础设施。关于人的信息,还是人的体验?
Citizens were recast as consumers. Members became lists, dues became donations, local leaders became influencers, conversation became messaging, political education became targeting, and organization became digital infrastructure rented for an election and dismantled afterward. Information About People or Experience of People?
更根本性的变化发生了。马歇尔·麦克卢汉在20世纪50年代提出的“媒介即讯息”这一观点,其意义不仅限于电视。传播方式塑造了传播体验。由民调、广告、电子邮件、短信和社交媒体中介的政治传播,已从人们共同行动的亲身经历,转变为关于人们独自行动的数字化信息。
Something even more fundamental changed. Marshall McLuhan’s observation in the 1950s that “the medium is the message” was not only about television. The means of communication shapes the experience of communication. Political communication mediated by polling, advertising, e-mail, text, and social media was transformed from a lived experience of people acting together into digitized information about people acting on their own.
当我们面对面交谈时,我们面对的是一个有血有肉、不可预测、能够质疑、带来惊喜、进行抵制或打动我们的人。我们能感受到语气、幽默、迟疑、不安和沉默。我们不仅仅是在接收信息。我们体验到另一个人对我们存在的反应,正如我们对他们的反应一样——社会学家哈特穆特·罗萨将其描述为一种“共鸣”体验。中介化的接触无法复制共享空间中那种具身的互惠性,更重要的是,它无法复制通过共同承担重要工作而产生的问责感。
When we converse face to face, we encounter another person who is embodied, unpredictable, and capable of questioning, surprising, resisting, or moving us. We experience tone, humor, hesitation, discomfort, and silence. We do not merely receive a message. We experience another person responding to our presence as we respond to theirs—what sociologist Hartmut Rosa describes as an experience of “resonance.”Mediated contact cannot reproduce the embodied reciprocity of sharing space—or, more importantly, the accountability created by undertaking consequential work together.
选举营销行业用关于人的信息取代了对人的真实体验。选民变成了由人口统计类别、消费偏好、关注者、捐赠者、可争取目标和互动单位拼凑而成的档案。其危险之处不仅在于这些信息可能是错误的,更在于这些关于人的信息取代了与人建立真实关系的过程。
The electoral marketing industry substitutes information about people for experience of them. Voters become profiles assembled from demographic categories, consumer preferences, followers, donors, persuadable targets, and units of engagement. The danger is not only that the information may be wrong. It is that information about people substitutes for entering into relationships with people.
竞选活动因此需要更多的资金来购买传播渠道、数据和实地动员能力。候选人变得越来越依赖捐赠者和供应商,而对有组织的选民群体的依赖则在减弱。随着这些选民群体力量的削弱,竞选活动必须花钱购买他们曾经能够自发提供的能力。这不仅让财富拥有了更大的话语权,还改变了产生政治声音本身的机制。
Campaigns then need more money to purchase communication, data, and field capacity. Candidates become more dependent on donors and vendors and less dependent on organized constituencies. As those constituencies weaken, campaigns must purchase more of the capacity they once supplied. This not only allows wealth to speak more loudly. It transforms the machinery through which political voice itself is produced.
组织建设的意义:社会运动在历史上曾打破过这一循环。在最好的情况下,劳工运动、民权运动、妇女运动、环保运动以及其他运动通过培养能够组织他人的领导者,将新的选民群体带入了政治舞台。但近年来,许多怀有运动抱负的组织采用了选举行业的手段:由专业管理的倡导组织擅长筹款、建立电子邮件列表、购买广告,并动员个人对最新的攻击做出反应。集会、请愿和筹款固然重要,但它们无法取代持久的组织工作。动员可以聚集人群,而组织则能建立选民群体。
What Organizing Builds Social movements have historically interrupted this cycle. At their best, labor, civil rights, women’s, environmental, and other movements brought new constituencies into politics by developing leaders capable of organizing others. But in recent years many organizations with movement aspirations adopted the electoral industry’s methods: professionally managed advocacy organizations skilled at raising money, building e-mail lists, buying advertising, and mobilizing individuals to react to the latest assault. Rallies, petitions, and fundraising matter—but they are not substitutes for enduring organization. Mobilizing can produce a crowd. Organizing builds a constituency.
组织工作使人们能够进行审议、决策、领导,并培养他人的行动能力。人们通过与他人共同行使政治权力来学习政治代理。当人们共同做出承诺并承担风险时,信任便会增长。判断力则是在成功、失败、反思和不断尝试中形成的。这些都不是可以通过短信传递的信息,而是必须在实践中获得的经验。
Organizing enables people to deliberate, decide, lead, and develop others’ capacity to act. People learn political agency by exercising it with others. Trust grows when they make commitments and take risks together. Judgment develops through succeeding, failing, reflecting, and trying again. These are not messages that can be texted. They are experiences that must be practiced.
曼达尼的竞选重振了这种更古老、也更民主的选举力量生成方式。它并非一夜之间出现,也不是由某位魅力四射的候选人一跃带来。纽约市的“美国民主社会主义者”组织提供了一个政治家园,外联主任塔莎·范·奥肯等组织者在这里找到了志同道合的人,与他们通过共同工作建立关系,一同经历失败与胜利,并学会让有组织的人成为选举政治的核心。
Mamdani’s campaign renewed this older, more democratic means of producing electoral power. It did not appear overnight or spring from one charismatic candidate. New York City’s Democratic Socialists of America provided a political home in which organizers such as field director Tascha Van Auken found others with whom they shared values, built relationships through common work, experienced losses as well as victories, and learned to place organized people at the center of electoral politics.
这场竞选并未摒弃资金、数据、专业人员或技术,也不应该摒弃。关键在于,技术究竟能赋能什么、赋能谁。一个新联系人收到的只是又一条短信,还是加入他人共同行动的邀请?竞选团队获得的是一个电子邮箱地址,还是培养出一名领导者?技术是在攫取注意力、资金和选票,还是在促进关系,为共同的学习和行动奠定基础?
The campaign did not dispense with money, data, professionals, or technology. Nor should it have. The question is what—and whom—the technology enables. Does a new contact receive another text message, or an invitation to join others doing the work? Does the campaign acquire an e-mail address, or develop a leader? Does technology extract attention, money, and votes—or facilitate relationships that ground shared learning and action?
大多数竞选活动都利用技术来减少对人的依赖,尤其是在缺少积极志愿者的情况下,逐户敲门拉票会变成一种付费服务,而且往往外包给其他机构。曼达尼的竞选团队则利用技术扩大自身参与者的影响范围。一条短信或一段视频可能只是起点,最终指向的则是启动入户走访、进行一次门口交谈、召开团队复盘会议,或由另一位志愿者承担责任。数字传播促成的是共同经历,而不是对共同经历的替代。
Most campaigns use technology to reduce their dependency on people, especially when the absence of motivated volunteers turns door-knocking into a paid service, often contracted out. Mamdani’s campaign used technology to extend the reach of their people. A text or video might begin the process, but its destination was a canvass launch, a conversation at a door, a team debrief, or another volunteer assuming responsibility. Digital communication motivated shared experience rather than substituting for it.
安德鲁·爱泼斯坦是该竞选团队的媒体战略专家之一,他将这些视频称为“第一次接触,第一次敲门”。他解释说,如果没有后续的组织工作,人们看待曼达尼的方式会与看待其他任何网络创作者无异。一名志愿者最初是在 Instagram 上了解到这场竞选活动的,并决定参加一次一月举行的启动活动:如果她不喜欢,就大可不必再来。
Andrew Epstein, one of the campaign’s media strategists, called the videos “the first touch, the first knock at the door.”Without the organizing that followed, he explained, people would have related to Mamdani as they relate to any other online creator. One volunteer first encountered the campaign on Instagram and decided to attend a January launch once: If she hated it, she never had to return.
她独自赴约。然而,网络接触为线下体验打开了道路;体验转化为参与,参与转化为责任,责任又转化为领导。重要的并非社交媒体提供了新信息,而是它能够开辟一条路径,让信息转化为体验,让关注转化为行动能力。
She went alone. But online contact opened the way to in-person experience; experience became participation; participation became responsibility; and responsibility became leadership. The important fact was not that social media offered new information, but that it could open a pathway from information to experience and from attention to agency.
这一切并未削弱曼达尼的重要性,反而凸显了他真实性的所在。他展现出的并非一家传播公司精心打磨的产物,而是一个真实的人,在分享一个故事的演变过程:他尊重自己的来处,感激自己已经成为的样子,并对人们共同能够取得的成果抱有希望。
None of this diminishes Mamdani’s importance. It locates his authenticity. He appeared not as a product perfected by a messaging firm but a human being sharing the evolution of a story: respectful of where he came from, grateful for who he had become, and hopeful about what people could accomplish together.