选举预测机构 Crystal Ball 在周二更新了其预测结果：随着美国逐渐接近11月的中期选举，共有11个众议院议席的归属发生了变化，这些议席转向了民主党。该机构的预测显示，弗吉尼亚州第1选区的竞争局势发生了转变——此前该选区由共和党议员罗布·威特曼（Rob Wittman）主导，现在变成了势均力敌的局面。威特曼被视为现任议员中的强有力竞争者，而他的民主党对手香农·泰勒（Shannon Taylor）的支持率仅落后1个百分点。
Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted 11 House seats toward Democrats as the country inches closer to the November midterm elections. The forecaster's report shifted the race for Virginia's 1st Congressional District, led by Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.), from leaning Republican to a toss-up. Wittman is considered a strong incumbent, with his Democratic opponent, Henrico County attorney Shannon Taylor, behind him by 1 point.
Crystal Ball 的副主编 J. 迈尔斯·科尔曼（J. Miles Coleman）指出：“如果泰勒最终击败威特曼，那么这将意味着民主党将获得比近年来双方都仅占微弱多数的席位。到目前为止，该选区已经吸引了大量民主党的外部资金支持。”
"If Taylor ends up beating Wittman, it would certainly suggest a Democratic majority larger than the narrow ones both sides have held in recent years. The district has attracted a considerable amount of Democratic outside spending so far," Crystal Ball associate editor J. Miles Coleman wrote.
弗吉尼亚州第2选区（由共和党议员詹·基根斯（Jen Kiggans）主导）和宾夕法尼亚州第7选区（由共和党议员瑞安·麦肯齐（Ryan Mackenzie）主导）的竞争局势也从势均力敌转变为民主党略占优势。基根斯所在的选区是2024年选举中竞争最为激烈的选区之一；而麦肯齐的对手则筹集了更多竞选资金，并与宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗（Josh Shapiro，民主党）进行了联合竞选活动。
The races for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, led by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), and Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, held by Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R), moved from being toss-ups to leaning Democratic. Kiggans leads one of the most evenly split districts in the 2024 election, while Mackenzie faces an opponent who has raised more money and campaigned with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D).
此外，北卡罗来纳州第3选区（由共和党议员格雷格·墨菲（Greg Murphy）主导）和俄亥俄州第15选区（由共和党议员迈克·凯里（Mike Carey）主导）的竞争局势也从“共和党必胜”的局面转变为“共和党可能获胜”。墨菲所在的选区经过重新划分后，其对手雷蒙德·史密斯（Raymond Smith，民主党）获得了大量外部支持，并投入了超过30万美元用于竞选活动；根据与民主党立场一致的众议院多数党联盟（House Majority PAC）的统计，凯里也面临大量外部资金的压力，目前仅以微弱劣势落后于民主党候选人唐·伦纳德（Don Leonard）。
Coleman shifted the races in North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, led by Rep. Greg Murphy (R), and Ohio's 15th Congressional District, led by Rep. Mike Carey (R), from being safe GOP districts to "likely Republican." Murphy's redrawn district, referred to by opponents as a "dummymander," could be difficult for Democrats to claim. Coleman wrote that Murphy's opponent, former state Rep. Raymond Smith (D), has attracted outside support and used more than $300,000 in outside spending against Murphy. Carey has also faced more outside spending and is narrowly behind Democrat Don Leonard, according to the Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC.
科尔曼提醒读者：“对于公开发布的内部选举数据应持谨慎态度。”另有五个选区的竞争局势也从“共和党可能获胜”转变为“共和党略占优势”。
Coleman warned to "take the publicly released internals with a grain of salt." Five districts shifted from "likely Republican" to leaning Republican.
这些选区包括密苏里州第二选区，由众议员安·瓦格纳（共和党）占据；弗吉尼亚州第五选区，由众议员约翰·麦圭尔（共和党）占据；以及肯塔基州第六选区、缅因州第二选区和蒙大拿州第一选区的空缺席位。加利福尼亚州第四十五选区的选举形势从“倾向民主党”变为“很可能由民主党赢得”。在2024年以微弱优势胜选，并在6月初选中获得54%选票后，加州民主党众议员德里克·陈被视为明显的领先者。
Those districts consist of Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, held by Rep. Ann Wagner (R); Rep. John McGuire's (R) 5th Congressional District in Virginia; and the open seats for Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, Maine's 2nd Congressional District and Montana's 1st Congressional District. California's 45th Congressional District shifted from leaning Democratic to "likely Democratic." Rep. Derek Tran (D-Calif.) is seen as the clear favorite after a close victory in 2024 and after he won 54 percent of the vote in the June primary.
科尔曼表示，由于加州通过第50号提案，重新划分了该州国会选区地图，使民主党有机会在11月赢得最多5个席位，因此陈的胜算“更为稳固”。科尔曼称，共和党人度过了一个“艰难月份”，而民主党在众议院选举中的领先优势进一步扩大。他援引埃默森学院上周的民调称，78%的民主党选民对投票感到兴奋，而共和党选民的这一比例为66%。
Coleman said Tran has "more of a cushion" due to the Golden State's passage of Proposition 50, which redrew the state's congressional map to give Democrats a potential chance at winning up to 5 seats in November. Coleman said Republicans had a "tough month" as Democrats expanded their lead on the House ballot, citing Emerson College's poll last week showing 78 percent of Democrats being excited to vote compared with 66 percent of Republican voters.
他打趣道：“而且——这更呼应我们开头使用的‘绿日’双关——许多民调机构一直显示，民主党人对投票 Simply 比共和党人更有热情。”他还指出，该报告的标题是《随着9月走向尾声，共和党人会醒过来吗？》Decision Desk总部的预测显示，民主党极有可能以75%的概率重新掌控众议院，共和党夺回众议院的概率为25%。
"And — getting more to the Green Day pun that we led with — many pollsters have consistently shown that Democrats are just more enthused than Republicans," he quipped, noting the report's title, "Will Republicans Wake Up As September Ends?" Decision Desk HQ's forecast shows Democrats very likely to reclaim the House with a 75 percent probability, with a 25 percent probability for the Republicans.
参议院的竞争则要接近得多：民主党掌控参议院的可能性为55%，共和党维持多数地位的可能性为45%。
It's much narrower in the Senate, where Democrats have a 55 percent probability of taking control of the upper chamber and a 45 percent likelihood that the GOP maintains its majority.