陈青、阿尼鲁达·戈萨尔 越南胡志明市 — 这是越南胡志明市早已习以为常的洪水。
THANH HUE, ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam — It is the flood Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City has learned to expect.
预报员于9月27日警告称，高潮位可能与暴雨叠加，增加这座全球最脆弱气候城市之一——胡志明市的洪涝风险。9月30日晚，暴雨与高潮位重叠，西贡河及支流水位暴涨，漫过越南商业首都的街道。
Forecasters warned on Sept. 27 that high tides could combine with heavy rain to increase the risk of flooding in Ho Chi Minh City, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable cities . As heavy rain combined with the tide on the evening of Sept. 30, the Saigon river and smaller waterways spilled onto the roads of Vietnam’s commercial capital.
生活照常进行。路边摊的食客双脚浸泡在洪水中用餐。小贩身披雨衣守在摊位旁，身穿雨披的顾客骑车而来，买完所需物品便再次驶入水中。
Life went on. Floodwater lapped at diners’ feet as they ate their food at roadside shops. Street vendors sat under plastic raincoats beside their wares, while customers in ponchos rode up, bought what they needed and headed back into the water.
城市低洼地带的居民早已学会与水共存。一些人，如63岁的武氏登（Vo Dang Thi，音译），将自家地板加高以阻挡洪水。但熟悉并不意味着洪水破坏性减小，气候变化正让这座城市的风险敞口加剧。
Residents of low-lying neighborhoods in the city have long learned to live with the water. Some, like 63-year-old Vo Dang Thi, have raised the floors of their homes to keep the water out. But familiarity does not make the flooding less disruptive, and climate change is making the city’s exposure worse.
香港城市大学地球科学教授本杰明·霍顿在给美联社的电子邮件中表示：“在胡志明市这类城市，气候变化正日益放大洪涝风险，因为它与快速城市化和土地沉降相互叠加。”
“In cities such as Ho Chi Minh City, climate change is increasingly amplifying flood risk because it is interacting with rapid urbanisation and land subsidence,” Benjamin Horton, a professor of earth science at City University of Hong Kong, said in an email to The Associated Press.
气候变暖推高海平面，带来更强降雨。9月中旬，暴雨导致越南北部多省发生洪涝。
A warming climate is raising sea levels and bringing heavier downpours. In mid-September, heavy rain caused flooding in several provinces in northern Vietnam .
霍顿表示，这些变化可能淹没越南最大城市地区的排水系统，尤其是人口稠密区域。
The changes can overwhelm drains in Vietnam’s largest municipal area, especially in densely populated areas, Horton said.
胡志明市近半数土地海拔不足1米（3.2英尺），其排水和运河系统建于法国殖民时期，当时人口约200万。虽然系统此后经历扩建，但英国资助的“全球未来城市计划”研究发现，其难以跟上快速增长的步伐。
Nearly half of Ho Chi Minh City’s land is less than 1 meter (3.2 feet) above sea level and its drainage and canal system was built during the French colonial time, when the population was about 2 million. The system has since been expanded, but a study by the U.K.-funded Global Future Cities Programme found it has struggled to keep pace with rapid growth.
与此同时，由于过度开采地下水，城市部分区域正在下沉，使得低洼社区更容易遭受洪水侵袭。霍顿表示，从城市地下抽取水资源会导致地下层水分流失，进而引起地面压实和下沉。
At the same time, parts of the city were sinking because of groundwater extraction, leaving low-lying neighborhoods even more vulnerable to flooding. Pumping water from beneath the city can cause the ground to compact and sink as water is removed from underground layers, Horton said.
他表示，这意味着脆弱地区的居民面临洪水风险，洪水可能淹没房屋和商铺、瘫痪交通、破坏基础设施、污染水源并增加公共卫生风险。
This means residents of vulnerable areas are at risk from floodwaters that can inundate homes and businesses, disrupt transportation, damage infrastructure, contaminate water supplies and increase public health risks, he said.
经营一家小餐馆的阮玉翠（Nguyen Ngoc Thuong，45岁）表示，涨潮或暴雨时，水位可达膝盖高度。
Nguyen Ngoc Thuong, 45, who runs a small eatery, said the water can reach knee height when the tide is high or it rains heavily.
“水退下去要两个多小时。有些顾客直接踩着水走进来坐下吃饭，”她说。
“It takes more than two hours for the water to go down. Some customers just walk through the water and sit down to eat” she said.
越南正寻求改革经济，目标是到2045年成为高收入国家。胡志明市已与周边省份合并，组建成一个巨大的新特大城市，将越南南部的工业中心、服务业和海港整合在一起，涵盖地貌和城市化程度差异巨大的区域。
Vietnam is seeking to overhaul the economy with a goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045. Ho Chi Minh City has merged with neighboring provinces to create a vast new megacity, bringing together industrial hubs, services and seaports across Vietnam’s south with sharply differing landscapes and levels of urbanization.
当局很快意识到，2001年和2008年批准的现有排水系统已不再适应扩容后的城市需求。
Authorities quickly realized the existing drainage system, approved in 2001 and 2008, was no longer fit for purpose in the expanded city.
他们于7月启动了一项耗资130亿美元的计划，旨在到2030年解决159个积水热点，包括升级防洪基础设施。同月，该市还通过了至2030年的气候行动计划，以升级排水系统和主要运河、扩大绿地面积，并提高应对暴雨、高潮和海平面上升的能力。但霍顿表示，该市面临的问题不仅仅是暴雨或高潮。
They launched a $13 billion plan in July to tackle 159 flood hot spots by 2030 including upgrades to flood-control infrastructure. That month, the city also adopted a climate action plan through 2030 to upgrade drainage systems and major canals, expand green spaces and improve its ability to cope with heavy rain, high tides and rising sea levels. But the problem for the city is not simply heavy rain or high tides, Horton said.
海平面上升使得雨水更难排入大海，而暴雨能在短时间内将更多水量带入城市。在一座下沉的城市里，积水速度更快、排水更慢。随着气候变暖，曾经罕见的洪水可能变得更频繁、更深、持续时间更长。“气候变化正在抬高这些事件发生的基础水平，”霍顿说。
Higher sea levels make it harder for rainwater to drain to the sea, while heavier rainfall can send more water into the city in a short time. In a sinking city, water also builds up faster and drains more slowly. As the climate warms, floods that were once rare can become more frequent, deeper and last longer, he said. “Climate change is raising the baseline on which these events occur,” Horton said.
这种情况在该地区其他地方已经出现。在泰国，自9月中旬以来，暴雨持续袭击该国，影响超过260万人，造成至少19人死亡。
This is already happening elsewhere in the region. In Thailand, heavy rains have battered the country since mid-September, affecting more than 2.6 million people and killing at least 19.
目前，阮氏女（Nguyen Thi Nhua）仍坚持开着她的摊位，售卖越南小吃“班吉奥”（banh gio），这是一种用蒸米粉制成、内馅为调味猪肉的小吃。随着城市的发展，她已在同一个人行道位置售卖了12年，期间经历了无数次降雨和涨潮。
For now, Nguyen Thi Nhua is keeping her stall open, selling banh gio, a Vietnamese snack made from steamed rice flour and filled with seasoned pork. She has been selling it from the same sidewalk spot for 12 years as the city has grown and through countless bouts of rain and high tides.
“还是有顾客会停下来，所以一下雨或涨潮时，我就继续开着摊位，”她说。
“There are still customers who stop by, so I just keep my stall open when it rains or the tide comes in,” she said.
戈索尔（Ghosal）发自越南河内。___
Ghosal reported from Hanoi, Vietnam. ___