2026年德国人最担心什么？战争？全球危机？都不是。他们最关心的是不断上涨的生活成本。
What do Germans fear most in 2026? Wars? Global crises? Wrong. Their biggest concern is the cost of living, which keeps rising.
德国人眼看着食品杂货和能源价格节节攀升。德国民众对政治的参与度达到了久违的高点。这一点在萨克森-安哈尔特州、柏林以及梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州9月份的州选举中高投票率得到了印证。
Germans see the price of groceries, energy rising People in Germany are more politically engaged than they have been in a long time. This was also evident in the high voter turnout in the September state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
德国人正在热烈讨论移民问题、即将进行的养老金、医疗保健和长期护理改革，以及民主与法治等议题。
Germans are passionately debating immigration, the upcoming reforms to pensions, healthcare and long-term care, as well as democracy and the rule of law.
但他们目前最大的恐惧，莫过于德国日益高昂的生活成本。至少，这是保险公司R+V在柏林发布的年度“德国人之忧”研究报告得出的结论。
But by far their greatest fear is the cost of living in Germany which is becoming increasingly expensive. At least, that is the finding of this year's study on "Germans' Fears," which the insurer R+V presented in Berlin.
今年5月初至7月下旬，研究人员对约2400名14岁及以上的德语区公民进行了调查。
From early May through late July of this year, researchers surveyed some 2,400 German-speaking citizens aged 14 and older.
生活成本再次成为他们最关心的问题，这已是该调查连续多年将其列为首位。这项研究自20世纪90年代初以来每年进行一次。
The cost of living is again their top concern, as it has been in the survey for many years in a row. This study has been conducted annually since the early 1990s.
去年，52%的受访者将日常生活成本上涨列为他们最大的担忧；到了2026年，这一比例已上升至59%。
Last year, 52% of those polled cited the rising cost of daily life as their greatest concern; in 2026, that figure has risen to 59%.
在柏林举行的新闻发布会上，担任该研究顾问的马尔堡政治学家伊莎贝尔·博鲁基（Isabelle Borucki）解释了原因。
At a press conference in Berlin, Isabelle Borucki, a political scientist from Marburg who served as a consultant on the study, explained why.
“能源、住房和食品等关键商品的价格明显上涨。这压缩了人们在休闲、度假和购物方面的财务空间。人们能负担得起的东西越来越少了。”对增税的恐惧。研究还显示，人们非常清楚德国的社会保障体系正处于严重危机之中。国家养老基金和长期护理保险都长期处于赤字状态。
"The price of key items — energy, housing and food — has risen noticeably. This reduces the financial leeway for leisure, vacations and purchases. People can afford less and less." Fear of higher taxes The study also shows that people are well aware that Germany's social security systems are in a serious crisis. Both the state pension fund and long-term care insurance are chronically in the red.
大多数人似乎也意识到，税收和缴费将会增加。这就是为什么人们对增税的恐惧比往年更为强烈。
Most people also seem to realize that taxes and contributions will rise. That is why the fear of higher taxes is stronger than in previous years.
博鲁茨基表示：“在对加税和削减福利的恐惧背后，隐藏着关于公平的问题，人们想知道谁将承担现代化的成本。他们担心：‘我还能指望获得我应得的福利吗？’” 战争、移民和唐纳德·特朗普，但那些同样占据德国新闻头条的问题又如何呢？移民问题和社会日益加剧的极化现象又该如何看待？或者全球动荡呢？
"Behind the fear of higher taxes and benefit cuts lies the question of fairness, with people wondering who will bear the costs of modernization," Borucki said. "And they worry, 'Can I still rely on getting benefits I am entitled to?'" War, immigration and Donald Trump But what about the issues that are also dominating the headlines in Germany? What about immigration and the increasing polarization of society? Or global upheavals?
在受访者中，有52%的微弱多数担心难民人数正在让德国政府不堪重负。这一担忧在所有关切中排名第三。但谈到全球动荡时，德国人并没有那么担心。
A narrow majority of 52% of those surveyed fear that the number of refugees is overwhelming the German state. This fear ranks third among all concerns. But when it comes to global upheavals, Germans are not so concerned.
研究员格里沙·布劳尔-拉比诺维奇表示，只有45%的受访者担心美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策正在使世界变得更加危险。
Only 45% of respondents fear that US President Donald Trump 's policies are making the world a more dangerous place, researcher Grischa Brower-Rabinowitsch said.
“这比他第一个任期时要少得多。”2018年，在特朗普的第一个任期内，69%的受访者在回答同一问题时表示这让他们感到非常恐惧。布劳尔-拉比诺维奇说：“经过多年持续的地缘政治警报，人们开始习惯了。”柏林有空间，为什么住房还是这么贵？
"That's significantly fewer than during his first term." In 2018, during Trump's first term, 69% responded to the same question by saying that this made them very afraid. "After years of constant geopolitical alarm bells, people are starting to get used to it," Brower-Rabinowitsch said. Berlin has space, so why is housing so expensive?
观看此视频，以及对政客的低分评价。这种趋势似乎也适用于其他关注领域：德国人对未来的焦虑程度远低于预期。目前只有34%的人担心德国卷入战争，低于去年的41%。
To view this video , and Poor grades for politicians This trend also seems to hold true for other areas of concern: Germans are looking to the future with considerably less anxiety than expected. Only 34% now fear a war involving Germany, down from 41% last year.
自1992年以来，该研究一直询问人们是否担心失业。目前，在受访的劳动人口中，只有20%的人回答“是”。这是有记录以来的最低数字。
Since 1992, the study has asked people if they are afraid of losing their job? Currently, only 20% of the surveyed members of the working population answered "yes." That is the lowest figure ever recorded.
然而，对政客——无论是执政党还是反对党——的评价却令人清醒：受访者被要求给政客打分，1分为最好，6分为最差（德国学校使用的评分系统）。结果平均分为4.1分，勉强及格。
However, the assessment of politicians — both those in the government and those in the opposition — is sobering: Respondents were asked to grade politicians with one being the best and six the worst (the grading system used at German schools). The result was an average score of 4.1, which is barely a passing mark.
政治学者博鲁茨基认为，主要责任在于由总理弗里德里希·默茨领导的保守派基督教民主联盟（CDU）和中左翼社会民主党（SPD）组成的现任政府；该政府于2025年5月上台。
Political scientist Borucki places the primary responsibility on the current government of conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Chancellor Friedrich Merz which came to power in May 2025.
上届联合政府结束后，许多人期待新联合政府能够展现更强的领导力、减少冲突，并迅速扭转经济局面。
After the end of the previous coalition government, many associated the new coalition with hopes for more leadership, less conflict and a rapid economic turnaround.
博鲁茨基表示：“这一切并未实现。如今，宏大的承诺与实际成果之间存在落差。人们感到失望，正在失去信心。”
"That has not come to pass," says Borucki. "There is now a gap between the grand announcements and tangible results. People are disappointed and losing confidence."