本周,博茨瓦纳在全国各地举行钻石禧庆典,纪念摆脱英国殖民统治、独立60周年。这一周年彰显了该国转型的巨大规模。1966年,前贝支瓦纳兰保护国是世界上最贫穷的国家之一,当时全国仅有约12公里铺装道路、22名大学毕业生和约100名中学毕业生。
This week, Botswana is marking 60 years of independence from Britain with Diamond Jubilee celebrations across the country. The anniversary underscores the scale of the country’s transformation. In 1966, the former Bechuanaland Protectorate was among the world’s poorest countries, with barely 12 kilometres of paved road, just 22 university graduates and about 100 secondary-school graduates.
六十年后,博茨瓦纳已成为中高收入国家,并创下非洲后殖民时代最瞩目的发展业绩之一。1965年至1980年,博茨瓦纳经济年均增长13.9%。到2025年,其人均国内生产总值(GDP)达到约7800美元,高于南非的约6600美元。考虑到南非是非洲规模最大、经济多元化程度最高的国家之一,这一反差尤为显著。然而,博茨瓦纳增长的意义不仅在于规模,更在于该国如何利用增长成果。
Six decades later, Botswana is an upper-middle-income country with one of postcolonial Africa’s most striking development records. Between 1965 and 1980, Botswana’s economy grew by an average of 13.9 percent a year. By 2025, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita had reached about $7,800, higher than South Africa’s roughly $6,600, a striking reversal given South Africa’s position as one of the continent’s largest and most diversified economies. But the significance of Botswana’s growth lies not only in its scale, but in what the country did with it. In 1994, it became the first country ever to graduate from the United Nations’ least-developed country category.
1994年,博茨瓦纳成为首个从联合国最不发达国家类别中“毕业”的国家。世界银行目前将博茨瓦纳归类为中高收入经济体,这一变化在全国各地清晰可见。到2024年,该国公路网络总里程近3.5万公里,80.2%的人口能够接入电力;根据2022年人口普查,66.5%的博茨瓦纳人居住在城市地区,而1971年这一比例仅为9.1%。
The World Bank now classifies Botswana as an upper-middle-income economy, and the change is visible across the country. By 2024, its road network stretched almost 35,000 kilometres, 80.2 percent of the population had access to electricity and, according to the 2022 census, 66.5 percent of Batswana lived in urban areas, compared with just 9.1 percent in 1971. Public investment also dramatically expanded access to education.
公共投资也大幅扩大了教育可及性。到2022年,博茨瓦纳有192151名中学生;截至2024年,约60287名学生就读于高等教育机构。这个独立之初仅有22名大学毕业生的国家,如今每年为数万名学生提供高等教育。
By 2022, Botswana had 192,151 secondary-school pupils, while by 2024 some 60,287 students were enrolled in tertiary institutions. A country that entered independence with only 22 university graduates now educates tens of thousands of students at tertiary level. The gains extended beyond education.
这些成果不仅体现在教育领域。博茨瓦纳的全国贫困率从2002/03年度的30.6%降至2022年预计的14.5%。与此同时,公共医疗服务也不断扩展。如今,85%的博茨瓦纳人居住地距医疗设施不超过5公里,几乎所有新生儿都在医疗设施内出生。
Botswana’s national poverty rate fell from 30.6 percent in 2002/03 to an estimated 14.5 percent by 2022. Public healthcare expanded alongside this transformation. Today, 85 percent of Batswana live within five kilometres of a health facility and almost all births occur in health facilities. Botswana’s response to HIV is more remarkable still.
博茨瓦纳应对艾滋病的成效更是显著。2002年,博茨瓦纳启动了非洲首个全国性免费综合艾滋病治疗项目。23年后,世界卫生组织认定其成为全球首个在消除母婴传播道路上达到金级标准的高艾滋病负担国家。98%的艾滋病感染孕妇接受治疗,母婴传播率已降至约1.2%,人均预期寿命也达到69岁。
In 2002, Botswana launched Africa’s first national free comprehensive HIV treatment programme. Twenty-three years later, the World Health Organization recognised it as the first high-HIV-burden country in the world to achieve Gold Tier status on the path towards eliminating mother-to-child transmission. Ninety-eight percent of pregnant women living with HIV receive treatment, transmission to children has fallen to about 1.2 percent and life expectancy now stands at 69 years. Political stability has also endured through democratic change.
在民主变革过程中,政治稳定同样得以保持。2024年,在博茨瓦纳民主党执政58年后,选民选举反对党民主变革联盟(UDC)上台,届满政府和平移交权力。
In 2024, after 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party rule, voters elected the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and the outgoing government relinquished office peacefully. Botswana’s achievements are increasingly visible beyond politics and economics, too.
博茨瓦纳的成就如今在政治和经济领域之外也日益受到关注。2024年,莱茨伊莱·特博戈在巴黎举行的奥运会上为博茨瓦纳赢得了该国首枚奥运金牌。一年后,科伦·凯比纳齐皮成为世界400米冠军。2026年5月,博茨瓦纳在哈博罗内举办了世界田径接力赛,这是该赛事首次在非洲举行;比赛最后,博茨瓦纳队在家乡观众的支持下夺得男子4×400米接力冠军。
Letsile Tebogo won the country’s first Olympic gold medal in Paris in 2024. A year later, Collen Kebinatshipi became world 400m champion. In May 2026, Botswana hosted the World Athletics Relays in Gaborone, a first for Africa, and ended the competition by winning the men’s 4x400m title before its home crowd. Behind much of Botswana’s economic and social progress lies the way it has managed its diamond wealth.
博茨瓦纳经济和社会取得的诸多进展,很大程度上得益于其对钻石财富的管理方式。
Today, Botswana owns 50 percent of Debswana, the diamond-mining joint venture it shares with De Beers, while the Pula Fund, its sovereign wealth fund, preserves part of the country’s wealth for future generations and helps cushion the economy against mineral-related macroeconomic shocks.
如今,博茨瓦纳持有其与戴比尔斯合资的钻石开采企业德布茨瓦纳50%的股份;与此同时,该国的主权财富基金普拉基金将部分国家财富留给子孙后代,并帮助经济抵御与矿产有关的宏观经济冲击。相当于7.5个月进口额的外汇储备又提供了一层金融保护。博茨瓦纳政府继续利用矿产收入为公共服务、基础设施和经济发展提供资金,而非仅仅把钻石当作出口意外之财。
Foreign reserves equivalent to 7.5 months of imports provide an additional layer of financial protection. The state continues to use mineral revenues to finance public services, infrastructure and economic development rather than treating diamonds simply as an export windfall. Yet for all that Botswana has achieved, it remains vulnerable to the commodity that financed much of this progress.
尽管取得了这些成就,博茨瓦纳仍难以摆脱为其大部分发展提供资金来源的单一商品依赖。过去10年,钻石几乎占该国货物出口总额的90%,目前仍贡献约三分之一的财政收入和四分之三的外汇收入。
Diamonds have accounted for almost 90 percent of goods exports over the past decade and still generate about a third of national revenue and three-quarters of foreign-exchange earnings. Natural diamonds have faced softer luxury demand and growing competition from laboratory-grown stones that sell for a fraction of the price.
天然钻石面临高端奢侈品需求放缓,以及售价仅为其一小部分的实验室培育钻石所带来的竞争加剧。随着全球需求走弱,博茨瓦纳立即感受到了影响。2024年,该国经济萎缩2.8%,2025年又收缩0.7%。
As global demand weakened, Botswana felt the consequences immediately. The economy contracted by 2.8 percent in 2024 and another 0.7 percent in 2025. The downturn deepens Botswana’s already serious employment challenge.
经济下行使博茨瓦纳本已严峻的就业问题进一步恶化。该国最新家庭调查显示,失业率为21%,15至35岁人群的失业率则升至28.9%。
Its latest household survey puts unemployment at 21 percent, rising to 28.9 percent among people aged 15 to 35. Botswana largely avoided the resource curse, yet it never overcame its heavy reliance on diamonds.
博茨瓦纳在很大程度上避免了“资源诅咒”,但始终未能摆脱对钻石的严重依赖。走过60年之后,该国面临的挑战不再是如何将钻石转化为发展成果,而是如何创造一种即便没有钻石也能延续的繁荣。
The challenge at 60 is no longer how to turn diamonds into development, but how to create prosperity that can survive without them. That requires looking beyond diamonds.
这需要把目光投向钻石之外。博茨瓦纳与戴比尔斯于2025年达成的协议规定,将德布茨瓦纳公司30%的产量交给国有的奥卡万戈钻石公司;2030年后这一比例将升至40%,此后还可能达到50%。协议还包括珠宝制造、钻石分级和职业培训。博茨瓦纳应尽可能从开采的每一颗钻石中获取更多价值。然而,钻石加工、抛光和营销仍无法使其摆脱对钻石的依赖。
Botswana’s 2025 agreement with De Beers gives the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company 30 percent of Debswana production, rising to 40 percent after 2030 and potentially 50 percent thereafter. It also provides for jewellery manufacturing, diamond grading and vocational training. Botswana should capture as much value as possible from every stone it mines. But processing, polishing and marketing diamonds will not end its dependence on diamonds. Botswana now needs a broader, more resilient economy, and some of the foundations are already in place.
博茨瓦纳目前需要建立更广泛、更具韧性的经济体系,其中一些基础已经具备。2024年,68.9%的家庭能够接入互联网,而十年前这一比例仅为40.6%。但网络连接尚未转化为大量就业岗位:2025年,信息与通信技术行业仅占就业总数的2%。博茨瓦纳必须投资培养相关人才,将网络连接优势转化为软件、金融科技、数字服务和技术企业,并通过这些企业雇用博茨瓦纳人、向境外销售产品和服务。
In 2024, 68.9 percent of households had internet access, up from 40.6 percent a decade earlier. That connectivity has yet to translate into many jobs: information and communications technology accounted for only 2 percent of employment in 2025. Botswana must invest in the skills needed to turn connectivity into software, fintech, digital services and technology businesses that employ Batswana and sell beyond its borders. Tourism is another existing strength, already providing about 50,500 jobs, or 6.7 percent of total employment, and accounting for more than 60 percent of services exports.
旅游业是博茨瓦纳的另一项现有优势,已提供约5.05万个就业岗位,占就业总数的6.7%,并贡献了60%以上的服务出口额。将全国约40%的土地纳入保护范围的自然保护模式,为博茨瓦纳提供了一项可继续利用和发展的宝贵资产。
A conservation model that places roughly 40 percent of the country’s land under protected status gives Botswana an asset it can build on. Economic diversification will require abundant power.
经济多元化需要充足的电力。马昂正在建设一座500兆瓦的太阳能电站,并配备500兆瓦时的电池储能系统。廉价、可靠的可再生能源可以支撑制造业、数据中心和新兴产业,而不只是为家庭供电。
A 500MW solar plant with 500MWh of battery storage is being built at Maun. Cheap, reliable renewable energy could support manufacturing, data centres and new industries rather than simply light homes. Botswana must also help more businesses compete regionally and globally.
博茨瓦纳还必须帮助更多企业参与区域和全球竞争。目前,私营部门95%以上的销售仍留在国内,受访企业中仅9%开展出口业务。更多博茨瓦纳人需要获得融资和培训,以便创办、拥有并扩大自己的企业,从未来的经济增长中受益。
More than 95 percent of private-sector sales remain domestic and only 9 percent of surveyed firms export at all. More Batswana need access to finance and training so they can start, own and expand businesses and benefit from the next economy. The institutions that turned diamonds into roads, schools and healthcare must now use six decades of accumulated skills, infrastructure and capital to create a new economy built on technology, energy, manufacturing and exports.
那些曾将钻石转化为道路、学校和医疗服务的机构,如今必须利用六十年积累的技术、基础设施和资本,打造一个以技术、能源、制造业和出口为基础的新经济。
Botswana matters beyond its borders because its record contrasts sharply with other resource-rich African states.
博茨瓦纳之所以超越国界而具有重要意义,是因为其成就与其他资源丰富的非洲国家形成鲜明对比。根据世界银行最新可得数据,铜占赞比亚出口的主导地位,而赞比亚71.7%的人口日收入不足3美元。刚果民主共和国拥有丰富的铜和钴资源,但仍有85.3%的人口收入低于这一标准。在石油资源丰富的尼日利亚这个非洲最大石油生产国,41.8%的人口日收入不足3美元。
According to the World Bank’s latest available data, copper dominates Zambia’s exports, while 71.7 percent of Zambians live on less than $3 a day. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is rich in copper and cobalt, but 85.3 percent of its people remain below the same threshold. In oil-rich Nigeria, Africa’s largest petroleum producer, 41.8 percent of the population lives on less than $3 a day. Botswana demonstrates that a decisive question is not whether a country has mineral wealth, but who controls it, how its revenues are protected and whether the state converts them into better housing, stronger infrastructure, reliable public services and greater economic security.
博茨瓦纳表明,决定性的问题不在于一个国家是否拥有矿产资源,而在于谁控制这些资源、如何保护其收入,以及国家能否将其转化为更好的住房、更完善的基础设施、更可靠的公共服务和更高的经济保障水平。
That lesson is especially important as African countries seek greater control over critical minerals.
随着非洲国家寻求对关键矿产拥有更大的控制权,这一教训尤为重要。矿产财富并不必然导致腐败、冲突或贫困。成功最终必须以这些资源能否推动经济生产力提升、拓宽发展机会并切实改善人民生活来衡量。
Mineral wealth does not inevitably produce corruption, conflict or poverty. Success must ultimately be measured by whether those resources foster more productive economies, widen opportunity and materially improve people’s lives. That is the larger meaning of Botswana at 60: in the right hands, postcolonial power can serve the many rather than the few.
这就是博茨瓦纳独立60周年之际更深刻的寓意:后殖民时代的权力如果掌握在正确的人手中,就能够服务多数人,而非少数人。
There is an old Setswana saying: “Moenyane o pele lebone la waabo” — the one who goes ahead becomes a light for those who come after.
塞茨瓦纳语有句古老谚语:“走在前面的人,会成为后来者的指路明灯。”愿博茨瓦纳为非洲照亮前路。
May Botswana light the way for Africa.