文/ Faseeh Mangi印尼基准股指今年下跌 30%,促使一家海外基金首次投资该国。
The 30% slide in Indonesia’s benchmark stock index this year has prompted one overseas fund to invest in the country for the first time.
瑞典的 Coeli Asset Management 已开始买入全球表现最差市场的股份,押注该市场估值现已具有吸引力,且总统普拉博沃·苏比安托准备倾听投资者对其部分政策的担忧。
Sweden’s Coeli Asset Management has begun buying shares in the world’s worst-performing market, betting the market is now good value and that President Prabowo Subianto is prepared to listen to investors concerned about some of his policies.
“我们关注印尼已有数年,但简单来说,它一直太贵了,”总部位于斯德哥尔摩的 Coeli Asset Management 基金经理 James Bannan 在接受采访时表示。“100 次中有 99 次,当市场因政治或地缘政治事件而抛售时,都是买入良机。”
“We’ve been looking at Indonesia for a number of years, but quite simply, it’s just been too expensive,” James Bannan, a fund manager at Stockholm-based Coeli Asset Management, said in an interview. “Ninety-nine times out of 100, when the market sells off for political or geopolitical events, then it’s a buying opportunity.”Indonesian shares have tumbled this year as questions about market transparency, concentrated ownership and insufficient free floats spurred MSCI Inc. to warn in January it may downgrade the country to frontier-market status. While MSCI is yet to act on its threat, the index compiler’s warning was enough to trigger an outflow by overseas investors, with global funds selling a net $4.7 billion of the nation’s stocks this year.
印尼股市今年暴跌,因市场透明度、所有权集中度及自由流通股不足等问题,促使 MSCI 公司于 1 月警告可能将该国降级为前沿市场地位。尽管 MSCI 尚未兑现其威胁,但该指数编制公司的警告足以引发海外投资者外流,全球基金今年净卖出了 47 亿美元该国股票。
Higher oil prices and the threat of faster inflation have also weighed on the asset class. The rupiah has declined 7% against the greenback since the end of December, making it Asia’s worst-performing currency, eroding returns for dollar-based investors.
油价上涨和通胀加速的威胁也拖累了该资产类别。自 12 月底以来,盾兑美元贬值 7%,成为亚洲表现最差货币,侵蚀了以美元计价投资者的回报。
Some 35% of global fund managers said they were underweight Indonesian stocks, the most bearish reading in Asia Pacific, according to a survey by Bank of America published last month.
根据美国银行上月发布的一项调查,约 35% 的全球基金经理表示低配印尼股票,为亚太地区最悲观的读数。
The outflow from Indonesian shares helped make them more attractive to Bannan’s fund — the Coeli Frontier Markets Fund — which seeks to invest in countries that have per capita income less than $10,000 and are neglected by overseas investors.
印尼股市的资金外流使其对 Bannan 管理的 Coeli Frontier Markets Fund 更具吸引力——该基金寻求投资于人均收入低于 1 万美元且被海外投资者忽视的国家。
The fund, which has its biggest holdings in Vietnam and Kazakhstan, has returned 13% this year, beating 66% of its competitors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its annualized three-year return of 23% puts it ahead of 83% of its peers.
该基金在越南和哈萨克斯坦的持仓最大,根据彭博社汇编的数据,其今年回报率为13%,跑赢了66%的竞争对手。其三年年化回报率为23%,领先于83%的同行。
Bannan said he traveled to Jakarta last month to assess conditions on the ground and the direction of Prabowo’s policies.
巴南表示,他上个月前往雅加达,以评估当地实际情况以及普拉博沃政策的方向。
“What we found out when we were there is that, even though he does have some populist tendencies, at the end of the day he also seems to be listening to the market,” he said.
他说:“我们在那里发现,尽管他确实有一些民粹主义倾向,但归根结底,他似乎也在倾听市场的声音。”
This year’s selloff pushed the shares of many Indonesian companies more than two standard deviations below their historical averages, bringing them closer to fair value, Bannan said.
巴南表示,今年的抛售潮使许多印尼公司的股价跌至历史均值以下两个标准差以上,使其更接近公允价值。
Stocks that Coeli has bought include ride-hailing firm GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Bank Central Asia, boosting its Indonesian allocation to almost 6% of the fund.
科利基金买入的股票包括网约车公司GoTo Gojek Tokopedia和中央亚洲银行,使其在印尼的资产配置比例提升至接近该基金的6%。巴南说:“对我们来说,这是一个相当大的初始配置。”
“For us, that’s quite a big initial allocation,” Bannan said.
在数月来对经济政策方向表示担忧之后,普拉博沃近期对财政部和央行进行了人事调整。包括景顺有限公司(Invesco Ltd.)和PPM America Inc.在内的资产管理公司均表示,已减持印尼资产的低配头寸。
Prabowo has recently made changes at the finance ministry and central bank after months of concern over the direction of economic policy. Money managers including Invesco Ltd. and PPM America Inc. have both said they trimmed underweight positions in Indonesian assets.
巴南说:“我们完全不怕在政治动荡的环境中投资。只要你能找到一些能够穿越这种环境的公司,并且你知道没有大规模贬值或国有化的风险,那么通常就没问题。”
“We’re not at all scared of investing in turbulent political situations,” Bannan said. “As long as you can find some companies that are able to navigate through that, and that you know there’s no risk of a massive devaluation or nationalization, then usually it’s OK.”