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彭博社

亚洲银行家寄望日本和澳大利亚提振低迷的并购市场Asia Bankers Hope Japan, Australia Can Lift M&A From Doldrums

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由 Elffie Chew、Baiju Kalesh 和 Manuel Baigorri 撰写:市场波动、价格上涨、军事冲突以及对人工智能的担忧给亚洲及其他地区的并购活动带来了挑战。不过,在澳大利亚、日本和中国等地,部分市场的并购活动依然保持活跃。

Market gyrations, rising prices, military conflicts and artificial intelligence worries have posed challenges for dealmaking in Asia and elsewhere. But pockets of activity in places like Australia, Japan and China have managed to keep transactions humming along.

该地区的韧性为今年剩余的三个月带来了积极信号;顾问们预计并购活动会取得进展——前提是各方不会犯重大错误。Freshfields 律师事务所的合伙人 Sarah Su 表示:“第四季度的关键将在于并购活动的规范性(即交易的合规性和规范性),而非交易量本身。客户更关注交易的顺利完成,而非交易规模的大小。”许多并购交易来自日本等成熟市场,那里的竞标大战日益普遍。

The region’s resilience bodes well heading into the final three months of the year, with advisers hopeful of progress in mergers and acquisitions — provided there aren’t major missteps. The fourth quarter “will be defined by discipline, not dealmaking volume,” said Sarah Su, a partner at law firm Freshfields. “Clients remain focused on certainty of execution over scale.”

目前正在进行的一场激烈竞争涉及价格比较网站 Kakaku.com 的收购:EQT AB 在周二再次提高了其出价(仅增加了 1 日元/0.01 美元),与 Bain Capital 和 LY Corp 展开了竞争。

A big chunk of deals has been coming from developed markets including Japan, where bidding wars are becoming more commonplace.

据 Barclays Plc 亚太区并购业务负责人 Ee-Ching Tay 称,治理结构的改革从根本上改变了日本企业董事会的决策方式,从而推动了并购活动的增加。她指出:“尽管地缘政治局势不确定且市场波动较大,但亚洲的并购市场依然表现出惊人的韧性。”

One ongoing battle is over price comparison site Kakaku.com, with EQT AB on Tuesday raising its offer — again by just ¥1 ($0.01) — in a faceoff with Bain Capital and LY Corp. Governance reforms have fundamentally reshaped Japanese boardroom behavior, driving a wave of transactions, according to Ee-Ching Tay, who is head of Asia Pacific M&A at Barclays Plc.

不过,根据彭博社的数据,日本的并购交易量仍低于去年第三季度;整个亚太地区的并购交易总额下降了 8%,降至约 3110 亿美元。买卖双方之间的估值差距仍是并购活动的障碍之一;此外,能源成本上升以及利率上升的压力也在拖累市场发展(美国国债收益率已达到多年来的高点)。

Asia’s M&A market as a whole “remains remarkably resilient” despite the geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, she said. Even so, M&A volumes in Japan were lower than the third quarter last year, while transactions for APAC as a whole slipped 8% to about $311 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

澳大利亚的并购活动持续升温:该国的并购交易额几乎翻了一番,达到了550亿美元,而且还有更多交易正在筹备中。虽然黄金矿业公司Northern Star Resources Ltd.刚刚拒绝了南非Gold Fields Ltd.提出的约270亿美元的收购提议,但Gold Fields Ltd.可能会提高其出价。EQT公司也向Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd.发出了收购要约。

Valuation gaps between buyers and sellers continue to be a drag, along with concerns over energy costs and upward pressure on interest rates, with US Treasury yields hitting multiyear highs. Australia has plowed on: M&A volume in the country nearly doubled to $55 billion, and more is potentially in the works. While gold miner Northern Star Resources Ltd. just rejected a roughly $27 billion takeover approach from South Africa’s Gold Fields Ltd., there may be a sweetened bid.

“私募股权公司将成为推动并购活动的主要力量,因为它们会加快资本投放和资产退出的进程,”高盛集团亚太区并购业务负责人Ed Wittig表示。“越来越多的全球企业也在将并购作为其增长策略的一部分,要么是剥离某些资产,要么寻求进行收购。”据知情人士透露,在日益活跃的AI领域,一个由BlackRock Inc.和IFM Investors Pty支持的财团已就收购Stack Infrastructure Inc.在亚太地区的数据中心展开了独家谈判。

EQT has also made an offer for Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd. “Private equity firms will be a key driver of deals as they accelerate capital deployment and portfolio exits,” said Ed Wittig, co-head of M&A in APAC at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “A growing number of global businesses are also evaluating deals as part of their growth strategy, either carving out certain assets or looking at acquisitions.”In the increasingly busy AI sphere, a consortium backed by BlackRock Inc. and IFM Investors Pty has entered exclusive talks for a potential acquisition of Stack Infrastructure Inc.’s data centers in APAC, people familiar with the matter have said.

Wittig指出,KKR & Co.预计韩国将从其在AI产业链中的地位中受益;而中国企业也越来越重视通过并购来在亚太地区及更广泛的地区实现扩张。他认为,基础设施、商业服务、能源、工业和消费品行业是并购活动最为活跃的领域。

KKR & Co. expects South Korea to benefit from its role in the AI supply chain, while Chinese companies are increasingly looking at M&A strategically to expand in APAC and beyond, according to Wittig. Infrastructure, business services, energy, industrials and consumer are among the most active sectors, he said.

印度也是全球投资者的关键市场,尤其是在基础设施和技术领域;不过近期市场关注的重点主要集中在印度国家证券交易所(National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.)和Jio Platforms Ltd.的IPO(首次公开募股)上。

There’s also India, which has been a key market for global investors, especially for deals in areas such as infrastructure and technology, even if much of the recent focus has been on the initial public offerings of National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. and Jio Platforms Ltd.

“并购正逐渐成为印度企业加速增长的工具,无论是通过企业合并、收购先进技术,还是更快地进入新市场,”Khaitan & Co.的合伙人Gautam Suseel表示。Suseel还指出,与中国的情况类似,越来越多的印度企业也在寻求跨境并购以实现全球化扩张。

“M&A is increasingly becoming a tool for Indian companies to compress the growth curve, whether through consolidation, capability acquisition or faster access to new markets,” said Gautam Suseel, a partner at Khaitan & Co. Like China, more companies in India are looking at cross-border M&A to expand globally, Suseel said.

尽管如此,像紫金黄金国际公司收购加拿大矿业公司联合黄金公司的计划被取消等交易,表明动荡依然存在,且往往由交易方无法控制的外部因素驱动。

Still, scrapped transactions like Zijin Gold International Co.’s plan to buy Canadian miner Allied Gold Corp. show that turbulence persists, often driven by outside factors beyond dealmakers’ control.

富而德律师事务所的苏表示:“成功将取决于战略契合度、审慎的执行能力以及驾驭日益复杂局面的能力。”

“Success will depend on strategic fit, careful execution and the ability to navigate an increasingly complex landscape,” Freshfields’ Su said.