周四，随着美国债券市场走势趋稳，安硕20年以上期国债ETF（TLT）也录得至少一个月以来的最佳盘中表现。与此同时，在期权市场的两个领域也出现了一些虽不那么引人注目、但对债券多头而言同样重要的动向。
As the U.S. bond market firmed Thursday and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) posted its best intraday rally in at least a month, some less notable but equally important action for bond bulls happened in two corners of the options market.
在股票领域，据CBOE LiveVol与SpotGamma的数据显示，周四开盘约一小时后，针对道富公用事业精选行业SPDR ETF（XLU）出现了一系列期权交易，使得该基金的期权成交量达到30天平均水平的10倍。
In equities, about an hour after the opening bell on Thursday, a string of options bets in the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) sent options volume in the fund to 10 times the 30-day average, according to CBOE LiveVol data and SpotGamma.
这些交易的核心是一笔金额达100万美元的操作，交易员押注该板块股价将止跌甚至回升。近期随着债券价格下跌导致利率上升，以派发高股息著称的公用事业板块遭受重创，因为其分红吸引力正受到固定收益类产品的强烈竞争。
It centered around a $1 million trade betting that the group stops going down or even rallies. As bonds have fallen — driving rates higher — utility stocks have been hard hit as the dividend-rich sector faces increased competition for its payouts from fixed income.
具体而言，该交易员卖出了5000份行权价为39美元、1月中旬到期的看跌期权，获得69.5万美元的收益；同时又买入了相同数量的行权价为42美元、同一天到期的看涨期权，付出40万美元。交易发生时XLU的股价略高于39美元，因此这笔交易意味着若到期时股价处于39美元至42美元区间，交易员即可获得最大收益。
Specifically, that trader sold 5,000 of the 39-strike puts expiring in mid-January for $695,000, and an equal amount of the 42-strike calls expiring the same day for $400,000. With XLU trading just above $39 at the time of the trade, it's a bet with a maximum payout between $39 and $42 by expiry.
虽然这笔交易算不上对公用事业板块的强烈看涨押注，但它反映出部分交易员认为该板块的跌势已告一段落，且利率或许已触及峰值。此外，这也标志着这一对利率变化极为敏感的板块在期权交易流向方面出现了一周以来的明显转变——据ThinkOrSwim统计，过去30天里该板块走势与10年期国债收益率的相关性系数为负0.94。
While the trade is not an aggressive bet on a rally in utilities, it a sign that some traders believe the sector is done falling and that rates may have topped out. Moreover, it represents the culmination of a week-long change of pace in options flows around this highly interest-rate sensitive sector, which has traded with a 30-day correlation with the 10-year yield of negative 0.94, according to ThinkOrSwim.
Barchart的数据显示，上个月末看跌期权与看涨期权的成交量比值曾达到2.67的峰值，创下5月以来的最高水平；随后随着交易员转而买入看涨期权，这一比值上周开始回落。据SpotGamma统计，周四当天约有7.4万份看涨期权被买入，而看跌期权的买入量仅为4500份。其他预示利率已见顶的交易信号公用事业板块的交易并非唯一一个能反映出债券抛售势头正在放缓的“低调”期权交易。
Put volumes relative to calls peaked late last month at a ratio of 2.67, the highest since May, before falling last week as traders shift towards calls, Barchart data show. In Thursday's session, 74,000 calls were likely bought, compared to just 4,500 puts, according to SpotGamma. Other bets signaling top in rates The utilities trade wasn't the only under-the-radar options trade that suggests the bond sell-off is slowing.
当天晚些时候，在芝加哥商品交易所的债券交易区，有人进行了一笔金额为440万美元的交易，押注短期利率将会出现逆转。
Later in the day, in the bond pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, someone placed a $4.4 million bond trade that short-term rates will reverse.
据一位不愿透露姓名的场内交易员透露，有人买入了10万份以SOFR期货为标的的3月96/96.12看涨期权组合，当时这些合约的成交价约为95.51。这一操作意味着交易者预期隔夜利率将回落至今年6月以来的水平。
According to one floor trader who shared the trade off-the-record, someone bought 100,000 contracts of the March 96/96.12 call spread on SOFR futures, contracts that were trading around 95.51 at the time. It's a bet the overnight rate will slip back to yields not seen since June.
“今天有大量看涨期权被买入，成交量十分可观，尤其是在明天公布就业数据之前，”这位交易员说道。“10年期国债收益率一度突破5.3%，随后便出现了反弹。”
"Massive call buying today, big volume in here today ahead of jobs report tomorrow," the trader said. "The 10-year rate went over 5.3% and then came the rally."