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民主党的品牌形象一团糟。一些民主党人正借此得势The Democratic Brand Is a Mess. Some Democrats Are Taking Advantage.

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宾夕法尼亚州东斯特罗斯堡- 佩奇·科涅蒂正努力成为共和党人想与之一起喝啤酒的民主党候选人。

EAST STROUDSBURG, Pa. — Paige Cognetti is trying to be the kind of Democratic candidate Republicans want to have a beer with.

这就是为什么她的国会竞选团队周日在当地一家啤酒厂举行了见面会(她的第四次此类活动),期间这位候选人穿着休闲牛仔裤和红黑法兰绒衬衫,谈论了她丈夫在当地的三明治店和她“对精酿啤酒的热爱”。或者为什么,从政治上来说,如果民主党同僚阻碍她,她非常乐意与他们打架。

It’s why her congressional campaign held a meet and greet at a local brewery here Sunday (her fourth such event) during which the candidate — dressed casually in jeans and a red-and-black flannel shirt — talked about her husband’s local sandwich shop and her “deep love of craft beer.”Or why, politically speaking, she’s perfectly happy to pick a fight with fellow Democrats if they stand in her way.

“我们必须进行真正的改革,”她说,在自己拿了一杯啤酒和人群混在一起之前,她对大约24名潜在的选民说。“这将意味着要与两党较量。”似乎是为了强调她的观点,这位46岁的女士在一个装饰着乐队口号“佩奇反对机器”的竞选标志旁发表讲话。Cognetti在2019年独立竞选宾夕法尼亚州斯克兰顿市市长时创造了这个短语,当时她击败了当地的民主党候选人,她认为这是腐败制度的一部分。

“We have to make real reforms,” she said, addressing about two-dozen potential voters before grabbing a beer herself and mingling with the crowd. “And that’s going to mean taking on both parties.”As if to underscore her point, the 46-year-old was speaking next to a campaign sign adorned with the band-inspired slogan “Paige Against the Machine.”Cognetti coined the phrase during her 2019 independent bid for mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania, when she defeated local Democratic candidates she viewed as part of a corrupt system.

今年,她试图将同样的独立精神融入到宾夕法尼亚州第八国会选区的竞选活动中,与共和党众议员罗布·布雷斯纳汉(Rob Bresnahan)进行战场竞选。她传达的信息是:她不像其他民主党人,不受他们的恩惠,也对保护他们帮助创造的政治现状不感兴趣。

This year, she’s attempting to take the same independent ethos and infuse it into her campaign for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, running in a battleground race against Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan. Her message: She’s not like other Democrats, not beholden to them and not interested in protecting the political status quo they helped create.

这一信息感动了至少一位啤酒厂赞助人:48岁的基思·斯瓦特科斯基(Keith Swiatkowski),他是一位政治独立人士,是一名屠夫。他说,当他看到一则强调科涅蒂与政党分歧的竞选广告时,他第一次对科涅蒂印象深刻。两人各自拿着啤酒交谈后,他被卖掉了。

The message moved at least one brewery patron: 48-year-old Keith Swiatkowski, a political independent who works as a butcher. He said he was first impressed by Cognetti when he saw a campaign ad that emphasized her differences with her party. After the two spoke, each with a beer in hand, he was sold.

“我已经受够了在‘狗屎和稀屎’之间做选择,”斯沃特科夫斯基说。他指向科格内蒂说:“这是一股清新空气。”科格内蒂体现了民主党今年在11月大选前面临的一项更大战略抉择。在全国各地,民主党候选人都在积极与民主党拉开距离;2024年大选后,该党的形象跌至历史低点,而他们决心把自己塑造成与传统民主党人不同的人。

“I’m tired of the choices being between shit and diarrhea,” Swiatkowski said. Gesturing toward Cognetti, he said, “This is a breath of fresh air.”Cognetti is emblematic of a larger strategic choice from Democrats this year ahead of November’s election. Across the country, Democratic candidates are aggressively distancing themselves from a Democratic Party whose image sunk to record lows after the 2024 election, intent on portraying themselves as something different than the same old Democrat.

这些候选人忙着操办当地的十五岁少女庆典,夸耀自己如何起诉民主党政客,拒绝全国党内领导人的帮助,公开否认自由派教义,甚至彻底抛弃“民主党”的招牌。他们说,这一切都是必要的,因为大选主要在共和党占优势的地盘展开,要取得胜利,就必须争取一些独立选民和倾向共和党的选民。

These candidates are playing local quinceañeras, bragging about prosecuting Democratic politicians, rejecting help from national party leaders, explicitly disowning liberal doctrine or even ditching the party label altogether. All of it’s necessary, they say, to win an election fought mostly on Republican-leaning turf, where success depends on winning over some independent and Republican-leaning voters.

“毫无疑问,民主党的品牌已经掉进马桶里了,”民主党战略顾问利斯·史密斯说,“拿着一套从全国民主党人那里复制粘贴来的政纲参选,不可能帮你在竞争激烈的选区里赢得席位。但独立性不是想包装就能包装出来的,选民闻得出你是在胡扯。”史密斯为“多数派民主党人”组织提供战略建议。这个组织的成立,旨在帮助物色和推广其领导人认为能够超越民主党固有形象、表现优于一般候选人的民主党人。

“There’s no question that the Democratic Party’s brand is in the toilet,” said Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist, “and that running on a platform copied and pasted from national Democrats is not going to win you a seat in a tough district. But you can’t manufacture independence, and voters can smell bullshit.”Smith advises Majority Democrats, which was formed to help identify and promote Democratic candidates its leaders believe can transcend the party’s image and outperform the average candidate.

科格内蒂是该组织的成员,而要赢得自己参选的这场选举,她很可能必须达到该组织所设定的目标。

Cognetti is a member of the group — and she’ll likely need to meet its aims to win her race.

两党都将第八选区竞选视为众议院核心战场的一部分,因为民主党自2020年以来首次试图在选举中赢得多数席位。库克政治报告将这场竞选评为“难分胜负”。该选区横跨宾夕法尼亚州东北角,曾经是工会支持的民主党的基石,但在最近的选举中急剧右转,特朗普在2024年以超过8个百分点的优势获胜。在总统的支持下,布雷斯纳汉在同一次选举中击败了六届现任总统马特·卡特赖特,尽管差距缩小了1.5个百分点。

Both parties view the 8th District race as part of the core House battlefield, as Democrats try to win a majority of seats in an election for the first time since 2020. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up.”The district, which sprawls over Pennsylvania’s northeast corner, was once a bedrock of union-supported Democrats but has turned sharply right in recent elections, with Trump winning it by over 8 percentage points in 2024. Boosted by the president, Bresnahan defeated six-term incumbent Matt Cartwright in the same election, albeit by a narrower 1.5-point margin.

这就是为什么,尽管科涅蒂试图将自己描绘成与众不同的人,共和党人却花同样多的时间告诉选民,她只是在隐藏自己的真实信仰,是他们厌恶的同一类国家自由派政治家。

It’s why, as much as Cognetti tries to portray herself as different, Republicans spend just as much time telling voters she’s simply hiding her true beliefs and is the same kind of national liberal politician they detest.

布雷斯纳汉在接受《华盛顿太阳报》采访时表示:“她当然是在试图摆脱真正的自由进步民主党人。”“但现实是,她远非一个温和的、中间派的人。”布雷斯纳汉和他的盟友攻击科涅蒂的竞选捐款(她从索罗斯家族那里接受了资金)、税收(她在担任斯克兰顿市长期间提高了财产税)以及她作为民主党政治人物的职业生涯(她曾为希拉里·克林顿和巴拉克·奥巴马的竞选活动工作2008年,并在奥巴马的财政部任职)。

“She is certainly trying to separate herself from being the liberal progressive Democrat that she truly is,” Bresnahan told The Washington Sun in an interview. “But the reality is, she is very, very far from being a moderate, middle-of-the-road person.”Bresnahan and his allies have attacked Cognetti over campaign donations (she received money from the Soros family), taxes (she raised property taxes as mayor of Scranton) and her career as a Democratic political operative (she worked for Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s campaigns in 2008 and served in Obama’s Treasury Department).

最近,他们广泛关注科涅蒂位于俄勒冈州波特兰的出生地,认为她不是当地的行善者,而是一名西海岸的自由主义者,利用宾夕法尼亚州东北部(该州称为NEPA)作为政治垫脚石。共和党超级政治行动委员会国会领导基金的一则广告实际上开始称她为“俄勒冈人”和“纽约市移植者”。布雷斯纳汉很高兴形成对比。

Lately, they’ve focused extensively on Cognetti’s birthplace, in Portland, Oregon, arguing that she’s not a local do-gooder but a West Coast liberal using northeast Pennsylvania (known in the state as NEPA) as a political stepping stone. One ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, literally starts calling her an “Oregon native” and “New York City transplant.”Bresnahan has been happy to draw the contrast.

“我出生在这里。我在这里上学。我在这里开始了我的职业生涯。我在这里结婚,上帝保佑,我会死并埋葬在这里,”他说。“我曾经是一个墓地的董事会成员,所以我知道最终我会去哪里,那是宾夕法尼亚州东北部。”共和党战略家将这场竞选描述为一场公投,以决定该选区选民是否将科涅蒂视为与国家党不同的民主党人。

“I was born here. I went to school here. I started my career here. I got married here, and God willing, I’ll die and get buried here,” he said. “I used to be on a board for a cemetery, so I know ultimately where I’m going to end up, and it’s northeastern Pennsylvania.”Republican strategists frame the race as a referendum on whether voters in the district view Cognetti as a Democrat distinct from the national party.

“如果她在选举日成为卡马拉·哈里斯,她就会输掉这次选举,”一位不愿透露姓名的布雷斯纳汉顾问说。“即使她与卡马拉·哈里斯关系密切,她也会输掉这次选举。”在接受采访时,科涅蒂驳斥了共和党对她的攻击,称她的记录证明了她的独立性。

“If she’s Kamala Harris by Election Day, she loses this election,” said one Bresnahan adviser, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Even if she’s close to Kamala Harris, she loses this election.”In an interview, Cognetti dismissed the Republican attacks against her, saying her record has proved her independence.

“我有对抗腐败的记录,无论腐败是谁,”她说。“这正是我们在华盛顿特区需要做的事情。我们需要修复系统,这需要勇敢地面对一系列让华盛顿特区人民受益的不良做法和系统性问题,无论是共和党人还是民主党人。”Cognetti在2019年作为独立候选人竞选斯克兰顿市长,与她所说的通过腐败程序选出的民主党候选人竞争。据《斯克兰顿时报论坛报》报道,前任市长在那一年突然辞职,并承认了联邦贿赂指控。

“I have a record of standing up to corruption, no matter who it is,” she said. “That’s exactly what we need to do in D.C. We need to fix the system, and that’s gonna take standing up to a bunch of bad practices and systemic issues that we have that benefit folks in D.C., be they Republicans or Democrats.”Cognetti ran as an independent candidate for mayor of Scranton in 2019, running against a Democratic nominee she said had been selected through a corrupt process. The previous mayor had resigned suddenly that year and pleaded guilty to federal bribery charges, according to The Scranton Times-Tribune.

她的竞选广告渲染了这段历史,将她描绘成一个与昔日的民主党人结盟的独立腐败斗士。

Her campaign ads have played up that history, portraying her as an independent corruption-fighter aligned with Democrats of yesteryear.

“她与众不同,是一名民主党人,有着像他们过去那样的骨气,”早期广告中的一位人物说道。另一则广告中,一名男子称自己三次投票给特朗普,他称科涅蒂是一个“老派强硬女孩”。科涅蒂的政策议程也有类似的主题。她希望禁止企业政治行动委员会的资金,希望国会议员和最高法院法官的任期限制为18年,并认为独立选民应该有权参加党派初选。她的广告还宣传了她作为市长如何增加对警察的资助。

“She’s different, a Democrat with a backbone like they used to make them,” says one person featured in an early ad. Another ad features a man who says he voted for Trump three times, who calls Cognetti an “old school tough gal.”Cognetti’s policy agenda has a similar theme. She wants to ban corporate PAC money, wants 18-year term limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices and thinks independent voters should have a right to participate in partisan primaries. Her ads also tout how as mayor, she increased funding for police.

她表示,如果唐纳德·特朗普获胜,她并不专注于弹劾她,并指责乔·拜登的边境政策在斯克兰顿和全国其他城市造成了移民危机。她说:“边境是一个巨大的问题,应该尽早得到解决。”

She said she’s not focused on potentially impeaching Donald Trump if she wins, and blamed Joe Biden’s border policy for creating a migrant crisis in Scranton and other cities across the country.

熟悉该地区的民主党人表示,孔盖蒂的做法在政治上是理所当然的。

“The border was a huge problem that should have been addressed far sooner than it was,” she said.

“如果她不这样做,她就是在犯政治错误,”前民主党众议员克里斯?卡尼(Chris Carney)表示。卡尼在2007年至2011年期间代表了目前第八区的部分地区。

Democrats familiar with the region say Congetti’s approach is a political no-brainer. “If she doesn’t, she’s committing political malpractice,” said former Rep. Chris Carney, a Democrat who represented parts of the current 8th District from 2007 to 2011.

“她需要像我在那个地区那样跑步,”他说。“例如,请注意,她没有与AOC一起竞选。她是一个温和的民主党人。”科涅蒂告诉啤酒厂的顾客,她最初于2006年来到NEPA为卡尼的竞选活动工作,当时她遇到了来自该地区的未来丈夫。

“She needs to run the way I ran in that area,” he said. “Take note that she has not campaigned with AOC, for example. She is staying as a moderate Democrat.”Cognetti told patrons at the brewery that she had originally come to NEPA to work for Carney’s campaign in 2006, at which time she met her future husband, who was from the area.

科涅蒂也宣扬她的自由主义价值观。在啤酒厂的同一次演讲中,她赞扬卡尼在2010年支持《平价医疗法案》,称这让他失去了职业生涯,但为该地区公民提供医疗保健是正确的做法。她表示,她在国会的首要任务是恢复共和党国会于2025年颁布的医疗补助削减计划。

Cognetti does tout her liberal values, too. In the same speech at the brewery, she praised Carney for supporting the Affordable Care Act in 2010, saying it cost him his career but was the right thing to do to deliver health care for the district’s citizens. She said her first priority in Congress would be restoring cuts to Medicaid enacted by the GOP congress in 2025.

科涅蒂和她的盟友在竞选的大部分时间里都在批评布雷斯纳汉,称他一系列个人股票交易与其在医疗保健和伊朗战争问题上的投票相互关联。而今年各地选举都面临类似情况:战争导致特朗普的支持率不断下滑,汽油价格上涨,共和党的胜算也受到威胁。

Cognetti and her allies have run much of their campaign criticizing Bresnahan over a series of personal stock trades they say are interlinked with his votes on health care and the Iran war. And, as is the case across the electoral map this year, Trump’s sinking approval ratings amid the war and rising gas prices have threatened the GOP’s chances.

布雷斯纳汉表示,特朗普政府需要“设法安全地重开海峡并推动问题解决,我希望外交解决方案能够尽快达成。”他还补充说,乐意与总统一同助选,但也承认自己的人气有所下降。

Bresnahan said the Trump administration needs to “figure out a way to securely reopen the strait and bring a resolution, and I’m hoping there is a diplomatic solution quickly.”He would welcome campaigning with the president, he added, but acknowledged his popularity has taken a hit.

这位众议员说:“我认为,一旦我们能推动伊朗问题取得解决,让燃油价格回到合理区间,他的人气就会大幅提升,而且优势将是压倒性的。”

“I think he would be a lot more popular, by a landslide number, once we could bring a resolution to Iran and get fuel prices back to a reasonable area,” the congressman said.

如今距离大选只剩一个多月,但此事看来不会很快实现。科涅蒂只能继续扩大自己的优势。

That doesn’t show signs of happening quickly now, with the election just over a month away. So Cognetti is left to press her advantage.

在啤酒厂里,科涅蒂逐桌与人们边喝啤酒边吃披萨交谈。期间,她介绍了让独立选民参加初选的计划。

At the brewery, Cognetti went table by table to chat with everyone over beers and pizza. At one point, she talked up her plan to open primary elections to independent voters.

她在演讲中表示:“我向你们保证,任何试图让我们陷入风险的人,任何认为操纵选举制度没有问题的人,我都会在华盛顿与他们斗争。我已经对付过斯克兰顿当地的民主党人,华盛顿的任何人都休想逃掉。”

“I promise you that I will fight in Washington, D.C., anyone who is going to put us at risk, anyone who thinks that a rigged system is OK,” she said during her speech. “I’ve taken on our local Democrats up in Scranton. I will take on anyone in D.C.”