凯恩斯并不把经济增长视为目的本身,而只是实现美好生活的手段。
Keynes did not see growth as an end in itself but rather as a means to live the good life.
摄影:Bettmann/Bettmann Archive 一部以热爱艺术的布鲁姆斯伯里团体成员为主角的新剧,讲述了他与自由市场理论的代表人物弗里德里希·哈耶克之间持续的思想交锋。1918年春天,当约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的火车缓缓驶过法国北部时,他清楚地听到了远处德军推进时传来的炮声。当时西线战场的战斗痕迹随处可见,但身为财政部官员的凯恩斯此行并非为了公务,而是去购买艺术品。
Photograph: Bettmann/Bettmann Archive A new play about the art-loving Bloomsbury Group member speaks of the enduring battle of ideas with his free-market rival Friedrich Hayek he sound of guns from the advancing German armies could be heard clearly by John Maynard Keynes as his train trundled across northern France in the spring of 1918. The evidence of the struggle on the western front was everywhere but Keynes, then a Treasury official, was not heading to Paris on war business; he was off to buy some art.
凯恩斯冒着风险前往参加已故画家埃德加·德加工作室藏品的拍卖会。这位日后成为20世纪最杰出经济学家的人,成功说服财政大臣拨款2万英镑用于此次竞拍,最终带着一批印象派艺术珍品返回伦敦,供国家美术馆收藏。
Keynes made the risky trip to attend an auction of the studio of Edgar Degas, who had died the previous year. The man who would become the foremost economist of the 20th century returned to London with some impressionist treasures for the National Gallery, having successfully petitioned the chancellor of the exchequer to spend £20,000 at the sale. This story reveals much about Keynes.
这段经历充分展现了凯恩斯的诸多特质:在国家深陷战争、开支庞大的时期,他善于游说官方提供资金支持;他对艺术满怀热忱,甚至亲自推动了英国艺术委员会的创立;他坚信生活中那些美好的事物远比经济学本身更为重要。凯恩斯(右)与画家邓肯·格兰特。
His skill in lobbying officialdom for funds at a time when the country was involved in a costly war. His love of art, which culminated in him being instrumental in setting up the Arts Council. His conviction that economics mattered less than the good things in life. Keynes (right) with the painter Duncan Grant.
摄影:World History Archive/Alamy 正因如此,詹姆斯·格雷厄姆新创作的凯恩斯题材戏剧《生活水平》这一标题显得恰如其分。凯恩斯虽精通数据统计,却绝非只会算账的经济学家。对于20世纪二三十年代经济失灵的原因,他有着自己坚定的见解;同时他也热衷于与伯特兰·罗素、路德维希·维特根斯坦探讨哲学问题。他认为经济增长应当为人们带来更多闲暇时光,而非单纯促进财富积累。这位毫无革命倾向的人,却彻底改变了整个经济学界。
Photograph: World History Archive/Alamy All of which makes the title of James Graham’s new play about Keynes, The Standard of Living wholly appropriate. Keynes pored over statistics but was much more than a number cruncher. He had firm views about why the economy was malfunctioning in the 1920s and 1930s, but was just as interested in discussing philosophy with Bertrand Russell and Ludwig Wittgenstein. He believed a growing economy should provide the opportunity for more leisure time rather than the accumulation of monetary wealth. He revolutionised economics without having a revolutionary bone in his body.
凯恩斯出身于一个家境优渥的学者家庭,曾就读于伊顿公学,之后在剑桥大学学习数学。大学毕业后,他结交了一群朋友,即布卢姆斯伯里团体——这个团体由画家和作家组成,成员包括弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫,以及凯恩斯的两位恋人莱顿·斯特雷奇和邓肯·格兰特。这个团体以特立独行、不愿墨守成规而自豪。
Born into a well-off academic family, Keynes went to Eton before studying maths at Cambridge. His circle of friends after university was the Bloomsbury Group, painters and writers who included Virginia Woolf, and two of his lovers, Lytton Strachey and Duncan Grant. This was a group that prided itself on being unconventional, on not accepting the status quo.
布卢姆斯伯里团体不仅满足了凯恩斯的文化需求,也对他的经济思想产生了深远影响。他并不把经济增长视为最终目的,而是将其视为实现美好生活的手段——用他的原话来说,就是像“田野里的百合花”那样生活。在《我们子孙的经济前景》一文中,他预言了这样一个时代:经济问题将得到解决,工作周时长大幅缩短,“财富积累也不再具有重要的社会意义”。
Bloomsbury helped satisfy Keynes’s cultural needs but also helped shape his economic thinking. He did not see growth as an end in itself but rather as a means to live the good life or – as he put it – to live like the “lilies in the field”. In Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren he foresaw a time when the economic problem had been solved, when the working week would be considerably shorter and “when the accumulation of wealth was no longer of high social importance”.
他敢于挑战传统观念的态度在其早期著作《和平的经济后果》中便有所体现。该书准确预测到:1919年《凡尔赛条约》所规定的严苛条款会导致自尊心受挫的德国心怀怨恨、伺机报复。
His willingness to challenge the orthodoxy was demonstrated in an early book, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, which correctly predicted that the punitive terms imposed by the treaty of Versailles in 1919 would result in a humiliated Germany remaining bitter and vengeful.
令布卢姆斯伯里团体的朋友们颇感意外的是,后来凯恩斯爱上了俄罗斯芭蕾舞演员莉迪亚·洛波科娃。1925年,42岁的凯恩斯与她结为连理。尽管凯恩斯在表达观点时坦率自信,但他却对自己的外貌颇为在意,自认为相貌丑陋;其他人也持相同看法。弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫曾形容他:“像一只吃得过饱的海豹,双下巴明显,嘴唇红润,眼睛细小,既好色又粗鲁,毫无想象力。”凯恩斯与洛波科娃。
To the surprise of his Bloomsbury friends, Keynes later fell in love with a Russian ballet dancer, Lydia Lopokova, and the couple married in 1925 when he was 42. While forthright and confident when expressing his opinions, Keynes was self-conscious about his appearance, considering himself repulsive. Others agreed. Virginia Woolf once described him as like “a gorged seal, double chin, ledge of red lip, little eyes, sensual, brutal, unimaginative”.
照片来源:Hulton Deutsch/Corbis/Getty Images这部戏剧的核心主题之一便是凯恩斯与奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·哈耶克之间的思想交锋。哈耶克坚信:只要任由自由市场自行运作,就能产生最佳的经济结果;从长远来看,经济危机也能在无需政府干预的情况下自行化解。
Keynes and Lopokova. One of the central themes of the play is the battle of ideas between Keynes and the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek. The latter believed that left to their own devices, free markets provided the best economic outcomes and that over the long term crises would be resolved without the need for state intervention.
凯恩斯持相反的观点,他或许最著名的一句话概括了这一观点:“从长远看,我们所有人都会死去。如果经济学家在暴风雨肆虐的日子里只能告诉我们,等到风暴早已过去,海面又会恢复平静,那么他们给自己设定的任务就过于轻松,也过于无用了。”他的意思是,经济本身并不存在自然趋向充分就业的倾向。相反,除非政府准备出手干预并刺激需求,否则高失业率可能长期持续。
Keynes took the opposite view, summed up by perhaps his most famous quote: “In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.”By this he meant that the economy had no natural tendency towards full employment. Rather, high unemployment could last indefinitely unless the government was prepared to step in and stimulate demand.
这一论点构成了他最著名的著作《就业、利息和货币通论》的核心。这部著作通常简称为《通论》,它挑战了传统经济思维,并对第二次世界大战后数十年间的政策制定者产生了深远影响;当时,人们认为,政府有责任管理需求,以确保充分就业。
This argument formed the centrepiece of his most famous book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. The General Theory, as it is commonly known, challenged conventional economic thinking and had a profound influence on policymakers in the decades after the second world war, when it was seen as the responsibility of governments to manage demand to secure full employment.
凯恩斯看到了资本主义制度中的许多缺陷,但他并不是马克思主义者。作为一个毫不掩饰的精英主义者,他把挽救资本主义、使其免于自我毁灭视为自己的使命,哪怕只是因为他认为这是维护文明价值观的最佳途径。社会活动家贝娅特丽斯·韦布曾说:“他鄙视普通人,尤其是他们成群聚集的时候。他厌恶人群,也不希望把人群争取到自己一方。”
Keynes saw the many flaws in the capitalist system but was no Marxist. As an unashamed elitist, he saw it as his mission to save capitalism from itself, if only because he saw it as the best way to safeguard civilised values. “He is contemptuous of common men, especially when gathered together in herds,” the social reformer Beatrice Webb once observed. “He dislikes the human herd and has no desire to enlist the human herd on his side.”
罗里·金尼尔在《生活水平》中饰演凯恩斯。照片来源:Manuel Harlan毫不意外,极左派对凯恩斯抱有疑虑。正如其传记作者罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基所写:“马克思主义者长期认为,凯恩斯的理论之所以被采纳,是因为它们符合20世纪30年代资产阶级的利益;而当这些理论开始威胁到资本主义利润时,便又被弃之不用。”
Rory Kinnear as Keynes in The Standard of Living. Photograph: credit Manuel Harlan Unsurprisingly, the hard left have their suspicions about Keynes. As his biographer Robert Skidelsky wrote: “Marxists have long argued that Keynes’s ideas were taken up because they served the interests of the bourgeoisie in the 1930s and were dropped when they started to endanger capitalist profits in the 1970s.”
的确,到了20世纪70年代中期,凯恩斯及其理论逐渐失宠。当时西方各国经济同时面临通货膨胀加剧与增长乏力的困境。战后那些信奉凯恩斯主义的经济学家们对高通胀与高失业率并存的现象感到困惑不已;而由玛格丽特·撒切尔与罗纳德·里根引领的新右派则在这场“滞胀”时代中胜出。受哈耶克思想启发,新右派着手瓦解以充分就业、国家所有制、强大的工会力量以及慷慨的福利支出为基础的战后经济体制。
It is certainly true that Keynes and his ideas fell out of fashion by the mid-1970s, a period when western economies were afflicted by rising inflation and weak growth at the same time. Postwar Keynesian economists were baffled by the appearance of high inflation and high unemployment at the same time, and the new right – spearheaded politically by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan – emerged victorious from this era of “stagflation”. Inspired by Hayek’s ideas, it set about dismantling the postwar settlement based on full employment, state ownership, strong trade unions and generous welfare spending.
2008年全球金融危机宣告了新右派模式的失败。由于人们坚信市场绝不会出错,过度投机的风险便被忽视,最终导致全球银行体系濒临崩溃。自20世纪30年代以来,世界首次面临全面经济萧条的真实风险;在此危急关头,政策制定者们重新翻出《就业、利息和货币通论》以寻求应对之策。
The 2008 global financial crisis saw the new right model come to grief. A belief that markets could never be wrong meant the dangers of excessive speculation were ignored and ultimately left the global banking system teetering on the point of collapse. For the first time since the 1930s there was a real risk of a full-scale depression and in those circumstances policymakers dusted down their copies of The General Theory in the search for a response.
凯恩斯本应能预见到金融危机的来临。他本人也曾在金融市场中进行投机,不过并不总是成功。1920年,他利用布卢姆斯伯里圈子的朋友们提供的资金,创办了一家堪称现代高杠杆对冲基金的机构,专门从事汇率投机;然而英镑汇率却出乎意料地大幅下跌,致使该基金的全部资本损失殆尽。
Keynes would have sensed a financial crisis was coming. He speculated on the financial markets, not always successfully. In 1920, he created what would be today called a heavily leveraged hedge fund using money provided by his Bloomsbury friends – taking bets on currency movements – only to see his syndicate’s capital wiped out when the pound unexpectedly fell.
即便如此,他仍清楚其中的风险。他说道:“在充满创业活力的经济环境中,投机者或许不会造成什么危害;但当创业活动反倒沦为投机狂潮的副产品时,情况就严重了。倘若一个国家的资本发展只是赌场式投机活动的副产品,那么这项工作恐怕也难以做好。”时至今日,凯恩斯与哈耶克依然分别受到左翼与右翼追随者的尊崇。过去二十年里,凯恩斯的洞见不断得到印证——先是2008年,随后又是2020年的全球疫情。
Even so, he was aware of the risks. “Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise,” he said. “But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes the byproduct of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill done.”Today, Keynes and Hayek are still revered by their followers on the political left and right respectively. Yet, the past two decades have showed the enduring nature of Keynes’s insights, first in 2008 and then during the global pandemic of 2020.
面对危机时,对自由市场的信念便荡然无存,各国政府会动用一切政策工具来促进经济增长、遏制失业率上升。正如凯恩斯的严厉批评者、诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·卢卡斯在2008年所言:“我想,身处绝境时人人都是凯恩斯主义者。”
Faced with a crisis, belief in free markets goes out of the window as governments use every policy tool at their disposal to boost growth and prevent unemployment from rising. Or as the arch-critic of Keynes – the Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Lucas – put it in 2008: “I guess everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole.”