如今正值选举季。在此，我想诚挚地邀请您通过付费订阅来支持我们的工作。
It’s election season. Here’s my pitch to you to support this work with a paid subscription.
接下来的四周对选举分析人士而言就如同一场“超级碗”盛宴。此时，我们致力于以详实的数据为基础来帮助公众理解政治局势的工作显得尤为重要。从现在起到选举日，各类民调、舆论观点与热门评论将层出不穷，它们虽能吸引眼球，却也可能分散我们的注意力。我的目标便是通过独立且以数据为依据的分析，帮您从纷繁信息中辨别出真正有价值的信号。
The next four weeks are like an extended Super Bowl for election analysts. It’s when our work to root your understanding of politics in the hard data matters most. There will be a flood of polls, narratives, and hot takes between now and Election Day that draw attention and take our eyes off the ball. My goal is to help you separate the real signals from the noise with independent, data-driven analysis.
如果您认同我们的理念，不妨成为“Strength In Numbers”的付费会员吧。成为会员后，您即可加入我们的Discord专属社群，还能每周至少获得一次高质量的深度分析内容。正是这些付费会员的支持，才使得“Strength In Numbers”能够持续运作，也让我们能投入足够的时间与精力去开展此类分析工作。
If you support that mission, consider becoming a payingr to Strength In Numbers. You’ll get access to our private community on Discord and get additional premium analysis at least once weekly. Paying members of this community keep Strength In Numbers running by supporting the time and data collection it takes to do analyses like this one.
由于选举季也是像“Strength In Numbers”这样的独立媒体获得媒体曝光与搜索引擎流量最多的时期，十月与十一月便成了我们招募新会员的绝佳时机。倘若您认可我们的工作价值，付费订阅无疑能确保我们长期稳定地提供优质内容。
Because election season is also when press and search-engine referral traffic to independent sites like SIN is the highest, Oct-Nov is also our best chance to recruit new members to this community. If you find value in this work, a paid subscription makes it sustainable over the long term.
付费订阅所得资金将用于开展各项调查、数据分析，以及保障我能够细致认真地完成每一项工作。如果您一直有意加入我们的社群，现在便是最佳时机。以下是我们九月份民调中一条被忽视的重要发现：在“Strength In Numbers”每月开展的民调中，首次出现多数共和党人及倾向共和党的独立选民对唐纳德·特朗普在物价管控方面的表现表示不满的情况。
Paid subscriptions are what fund our surveys, data analysis, and simply the time it takes for me to do this work carefully. If you’ve been thinking about joining, now is a particularly good time. Here’s a headline from our September poll that got overlooked: For the first time in our monthly polling here at Strength In Numbers, a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of prices.
今天我想向大家展示两张图表——准确来说是四张。不过本文的重点在于下面这张图表：上半部分显示了自唐纳德·特朗普就任总统以来柴油零售价格的走势；下半部分则呈现了在“Strength In Numbers”与Verasight联合开展的月度民调中，自认属于共和党阵营的受访者对特朗普在物价问题上的支持率情况。
Today I want to share two charts. Well, actually four charts, but the piece is mostly about the chart below. It shows, on the top, the retail price of diesel since Donald Trump became president; and, on the bottom, Donald Trump’s approval rating on prices among people in our monthly Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll who self-identify as Republicans.
自2025年5月以来，全国柴油均价已从3.50美元升至截至2026年9月28日的6.29美元（美国能源信息署的下一份每周更新报告将于10月6日发布）。2026年9月，每加仑柴油价格创下历史新高。
Since May 2025, the price of diesel fuel has risen from an average of $3.50 across the whole country to $6.29 as of September 28, 2026 (the next weekly update from the U.S. Energy Information Administration comes out October 6). In September 2026, the price of a gallon of diesel hit an all-time high.
正如我在9月民调分析中所写的，特朗普的整体净支持率较8月下降了6个百分点，而这几乎完全是共和党人所致。在共和党人和倾向共和党的独立选民中，特朗普的净支持率从8月的+54降至9月的+43。一个月内下降了11个百分点，创下我们每月进行的16轮民调中的最低水平。一年前，共和党人的支持率还是+68！
As I wrote in my write-up of our September poll, an overall 6-point net drop in Trump’s approval from August was driven almost entirely by Republicans. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, net approval of Trump fell from +54 in August to +43 in September. That’s an 11-point drop in a month, to the lowest level in 16 waves of our monthly poll. A year ago, Republicans were at +68!
上个月，在自我认同为共和党人的人群中，唐纳德·特朗普在处理物价和通胀问题上的支持率也降至新低。上图显示，他的净支持率为−8。
Last month, Donald Trump’s approval rating for handling prices and inflation also hit a new low among self-identified Republicans. The chart above shows his rating at −8.
你知道谁大量使用柴油吗？农民和卡车司机。你知道哪些职业中的共和党选民占比较高吗？农民和卡车司机！
You know who uses a lot of diesel? Farmers and truckers. You know which occupations have a large share of Republican voters? Farmers and truckers!
我通过谷歌找到的这张地图显示，今年秋季举行参议院选举的几个州的柴油价格尤其高昂，尤其是俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州和密歇根州。堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州的柴油价格也较高，不过程度稍轻。（西海岸的柴油价格也很高 不过其他所有东西也都如此。）我在本周五专栏中提出的观点是，对特朗普和共和党而言，物价是其基本盘选民的一大独特弱点。事实上，物价也是唯一一个共和党人对特朗普的净支持率为负的议题。
This map, which I found via Google at shows diesel is particularly expensive in several states holding Senate elections this fall, particularly Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan. Kansas and Nebraska too, though to a lesser extent. (Diesel is also expensive on the West Coast, but so is everything else.) My case in this week’s Friday column is that prices are a unique vulnerability for Trump and Republicans with their base. In fact, prices are the only issue Republicans rate Trump net-negative on.
共和党人对特朗普处理物价问题的净支持率为负。这张图显示了2026年8月和9月共和党人在12个不同议题上对特朗普的净支持率——即支持他的受访者比例减去不支持他的受访者比例。从8月到9月，特朗普支持率降幅最大的议题是物价，净支持率从+5降至−8。这一变化超出了两项调查各自的误差范围（净支持率的误差范围约为5个百分点）。
Republicans rate Trump net-negative on prices This graph shows Trump’s net approval rating — the percent approving of him minus the percent disapproving — in August and September 2026 among Republicans on 12 different issues. From August to September, the largest decline in Trump’s ratings was on prices, going from +5 to −8. That move is outside the surveys’ respective margins of error (about 5 points on net approval).
这张图表表明，特朗普和共和党在物价问题上具有独特的脆弱性。柴油价格上涨让通胀问题对普通美国人来说更加凸显。
This chart suggests Trump and Republicans are uniquely vulnerable on prices. The diesel price hikes make inflation even more salient for everyday Americans.
但总统的弱势不仅限于物价评分。我的州级模型还估计，特朗普的总体工作支持率在许多他轻松赢下的州已陷入“负水”状态。
But the president’s weakness extends beyond his ratings on prices. My state-level model also estimates that Trump’s overall job approval is underwater in many states he won comfortably.
我的MRP模型显示，特朗普在全国一些最深红的州支持率均为负值。从2025年5月到2026年9月，特朗普支持率下降幅度最大的州是……犹他州（从0降至-23）。肯塔基州（从+17降至-5）。
My MRP model has Trump net-negative in some of the most deep-red states in the country. From May 2025 to September 2026, Trump’s approval rating has fallen the most in... Utah (0 to −23). Kentucky (+17 to −5).
这是上图中有参议院竞选的州的数据，按特朗普在其2024年选民中的支持率排序：爱荷华州（特朗普2024年选民中+42；全体选民中-24；无现任议员）请注意爱荷华州和德克萨斯州在此处的位置。
Here’s the data from the graph above if you are just looking at states with Senate races, sorted by Trump’s approval rating among his own 2024 voters: Iowa (+42 among Trump’s 2024 voters; −24 among all voters; open seat) Note the placement of Iowa and Texas here.
不太可能对物价的焦虑、以及对特朗普处理该问题的反弹，仅会影响总统。所有这些都可能损害共和党参议院提名人。
It is unlikely that anxiety about prices, and backlash against Trump’s handling of the issue, would only impact the president. This all may be hurting Republican nominees for the Senate.
在上图中，我加粗了今年有竞争性参议院竞选的州。其中许多就是上图显示平均柴油价格的州，尤其是俄亥俄州和爱荷华州。
In the chart above, I’ve bolded states that have competitive Senate races this year. Many of these are the states on that map above showing average diesel prices, especially Ohio and Iowa.
特朗普在2024年在这六个州均以两位数优势获胜。然而，共和党参议院候选人在民调平均值中如今却处于持平或落后状态。
Trump won every one of those six states by double digits in 2024. Yet the Republican Senate candidates are now tied or trailing in the polling averages.
这些选举尚未结束。除柴油以外的其他议题也很重要。但值得注意的是，现在多数共和党倾向的独立选民不认可总统对物价的处理。
These elections are not over. And issues other than diesel matter. But it is notable that a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now disapprove of the president’s handling of prices.
这有可能将软性党派支持者转化为民主党选民，并让铁杆党派支持者对投票失去兴趣。
That has the potential to turn soft partisans into Democratic voters, and to turn off strong partisans from voting.
共和党候选人可以寄希望于选民更关心其他政策——特朗普在这些方面评分较好。但在生活成本这一全党派选民关注的头号议题上，总统及其政党面临更基本的任务：他们必须赢回自己的选民。
Republican candidates can hope that voters care more about other policies, where Trump scores better ratings. But on the cost of living, the number-one issue among voters of all parties, the president and his party have something more basic to do: They have to win back their own voters.
有了上图这类显示全国柴油价格创历史新高的图表，那将会很难。而且距离选举日仅剩32天，时间所剩无几。
With charts like the above showing all-time highs for diesel prices across the country, that’s going to be hard. And with only 32 days before Election Day, time is running out.
这篇文章对所有人免费。但付费订阅者支付我们的账单，使这类工作成为可能。如果您认为这种数据驱动的分析有价值，请考虑通过付费订阅来支持我们的工作。
This post was free for everyone. But payingrs pay our bills and make work like this possible. If you find this kind of data-driven analysis valuable, consider supporting the work with a paid subscription.