交通专家周五（10月2日）表示，新柔捷运系统（RTS Link）在假期前后延迟开通，可能让其客流处理安排面临提前考验，并指出可能出现人群管理问题。
delayed Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link around holiday periods could put its passenger-handling arrangements to an early test, transport experts said on Friday (Oct 2), pointing to possible crowd management issues.
虽然确切开通日期尚未公布，但专家警告称，除列车系统外，其他运营环节也必须做好准备，以迎接大量乘客。
An exact opening date has not been announced, but the experts warned that operations beyond the train systems must be ready to welcome passengers in large numbers.
新加坡工程院院士李德鸿教授表示：“如果在假期前夕立即开通，我希望看到的是整个乘客出行流程在高峰需求条件下经过测试，而不仅仅是列车。”
“If it opens immediately before the holiday, I would want to see the whole passenger journey tested under peak-demand conditions, not just the trains,” said Professor Lee Der-Horng, a fellow of Singapore’s Academy of Engineering.
由于乘客将在出发站同时完成两国的出入境通关，他担忧的是人们能多快通过售票、通关和登车环节。
Because passengers will clear immigration for both countries at their departure station, his concern extends to how quickly people can move through ticketing, clearance and boarding.
他说：“列车可能还有剩余运力，而车站其他区域却已排起长队。”
“Trains could have available capacity while queues are building up elsewhere in the station,” he said.
他的言论是在新马两国当局周五宣布RTS Link预计明年2月投入运营、而非今年底之后发表的。
His comments come after Singapore and Malaysia authorities announced on Friday that the RTS Link is now expected to begin operations in February next year instead of the end of this year.
当局表示，需要更多时间完成测试、获取独立安全认证并获得监管批准。
They said more time is needed to complete testing, obtain independent safety certification and secure regulatory approvals.
交通部长萧美琴表示，目标是让服务在开斋节（3月10日）前开通。农历新年则在2月6日和7日。
Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow said the aim is for the service to open before Hari Raya Puasa, which falls on Mar 10. Chinese New Year falls on Feb 6 and 7.
李教授警告称，安全认证并不保证假期客流高峰期间运营顺畅。他表示希望看到切实的人群管理演练、充足的人员配置，以及针对服务中断的联合应急演练。
Prof Lee cautioned that safety certification does not guarantee smooth operations during a holiday surge. He said he hoped to see realistic crowd-management rehearsals, sufficient staffing and a jointly rehearsed response to service interruptions.
他补充说，理想情况下，服务应在假期高峰前运行一段时间，以便工作人员和乘客熟悉安排。他说：“假期客流高峰不应成为这些安排的首次严峻考验。”
Ideally, the service should have run for some time before a holiday peak so that staff and passengers are familiar with the arrangements, he added. “The holiday rush should not be the first serious test of those arrangements,” he said.
新加坡工程师学会的黄大伟博士同意，问题更可能出在车站而非列车上。
Dr David Ng of the Institution of Engineers Singapore agreed that problems are likelier at stations than on the trains.
他说，可通过增加列车班次来提升运力，但当局在通车初期不太可能尝试这一点。如果维持每小时每方向高达10,000名乘客的经过验证的高峰运力，任何积聚的人群都将由车站管理人员负责。
Capacity can be raised by running trains more often, but authorities are unlikely to try that soon after opening, he said. If they keep to the tried-and-tested peak capacity of up to 10,000 passengers per hour in each direction, any crowd that builds up will fall to station managers.
他说：“乘客只能在车站排队候车，这对列车本身来说不是问题。”
“Passengers will just have to queue up at the station, which is not a problem for the train,” he said.
同时也是One Smart Engineering执行总监的黄博士表示，新柔捷运系统（RTS Link）没有“最佳开通时机”，因为一年中的许多时段都将高度使用。
But Dr Ng, who is also executive director of One Smart Engineering, said there is no “best time” to open the RTS Link, noting that it is going to be highly utilised at many times of the year.
他说，通车应在运营方确信系统能在无故障或中断的情况下平稳运行时进行。
The launch should instead come when operators are confident the system can run smoothly without breakdowns or disruptions, he said.
新加坡社会科学大学副教授陈伟杰（Walter Theseira）表示，假期期间前往马来西亚的交通需求普遍超过供给，因此选择越多越好。他说：“我认为，即使刚开通，有RTS总比完全没有要好。”
Associate Professor Walter Theseira from the Singapore University of Social Sciences said demand for transport to Malaysia generally exceeds supply during holiday periods, so more options are better. “I’d say it’s better to have the RTS even if it’s just newly opened than not at all,” he said.
可能的问题 交通专家列举了导致延误的一系列可能原因，从测试期间的故障到COVID-19疫情的持续影响。
POSSIBLE ISSUES The transport experts cited a range of possible reasons for the delay, from glitches during testing to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
李教授指出，官方声明并未指出具体的技术故障，并警告不要将延误解读为测试期间出了问题的迹象。
Prof Lee noted that the announcement did not identify a specific technical fault and cautioned against interpreting the delay as a sign that something had gone wrong during tests.
他说：“列车、信号和车站系统之间的接口问题可能需要调整和重复测试。这可能是需要更多时间的一个解释，但我们不应假设这就是此处发生的情况。”
“Issues at the interfaces between trains, signalling and station systems can require adjustments and repeat testing. That is a possible explanation for needing more time, but we should not assume it is what has happened here,” he said.
测试和认证是已知的必要要求，从一开始就需要纳入考量，包括预留整改时间。
Testing and certification are known requirements that need to be factored in from the outset, including time for rectification.
李教授补充道，要确定原因还需要更多信息，例如测试期间是否出现意外问题，或者早期工作是否比计划耗时更长，导致最后阶段的时间被压缩。
More information would be needed to determine the cause, such as whether unexpected issues emerged during testing or earlier work took longer than planned, leaving less time for the final stages, Prof Lee added.
黄医生表示，测试期间常会发现技术故障，修复它们需要时间以确保系统安全。
Dr Ng said technical glitches are often found during testing, and fixing them takes time to ensure the system is safe.
他说，考虑到跨境列车系统需要紧密协调，且比国内系统更复杂，修订后的时间表是可以理解的。鉴于团队的专业能力，他不预期开通时间会进一步推迟。
He said the revised timeline is understandable because a cross-border train system requires close coordination and is more complicated than a domestic one. Given the team’s expertise, he does not expect a further delay to the opening.
新加坡管理大学战略与创业学助理教授（教育）范德恩指出，该项目在过去16年里经历了多次变更。项目于2019年应马来西亚要求暂停以进行审查，随后于2020年新冠疫情期间复工。
Assistant Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship (Education) Terence Fan from the Singapore Management University pointed to changes to the project over the past 16 years. It was suspended in 2019 at Malaysia’s request for a review, before work resumed in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
他说，许多建设项目在疫情期间都面临延误，其中一些挫折“无法完全弥补”。
Many construction projects faced delays during the pandemic, and some of those setbacks “could not be completely made up”, he said.
项目在2020年复工时也发生了变化。原本计划利用汤申-东海岸地铁线，后改为独立的轻轨系统。
The project also changed when it resumed in 2020. The link would be a standalone light rail transit system instead of leveraging the Thomson-East Coast MRT line as initially planned.
范助理教授说：“这可能导致了一些额外的变通措施，而这些变通措施很可能最终导致了一些延误，进而推迟了认证的需求。”
“That might have resulted in some additional workaround and it could very well be that this workaround ultimately led to some delays, and therefore delaying, as a result, the need for certification,” said Asst Prof Fan.
考虑到项目能否推进曾多次中断，以及后来范围和技术细节的变更，他觉得此次延误是可以理解的。
Given the “interruptions” over whether the project would proceed and the later changes to its scope and technical details, he felt the delay was understandable.
“我不认为目前的延误幅度很大，预计仍在今年年底前的预测基础上推迟两个月内。” 切合实际的目标？
“I don’t think the delay is by a huge amount right now, it’s still estimated to be within two months later than the earlier projection of the end of this year.”
李教授表示，他会将二月视为一个“有条件的目标”，而非确定的开通日期。
A REALISTIC TARGET? Prof Lee said he would treat February as a “conditional target” rather than a confirmed opening date.
他说：“重要的问题是，剩余的工作现在是否得到了充分的理解，以及修订后的计划是否允许进行任何必要的纠正工作和重新测试。”
“The important question is whether the remaining work is now sufficiently well understood and whether the revised programme allows for any necessary corrective work and retesting,” he said.
如果这些步骤所需的时间比预期的要长，仍可能出现进一步的拖延。但他承认，公开的细节不足以断定是否有可能再次推迟。
If those steps take longer than expected, further delays could still occur. But public detail is insufficient to conclude whether another delay is likely, he acknowledged.
他说：“在对开幕日期表示更大的信心之前，我会在这些里程碑上寻找进展。”
“I would look for progress against those milestones before expressing greater confidence in the opening date,” he said.
范助理教授表示，二月份的目标似乎是现实的，他预计目前不会进一步推迟。然而，鉴于建筑工程位于陆地与大海交汇的堤道附近，不可预见的问题仍可能出现。
Asst Prof Fan said the February target appeared realistic and he did not expect further delays at this point. Unforeseen issues could still emerge, however, given that the construction works are near the Causeway, where land meets the sea.
他说，这些可能包括该地区土壤移动引起的腐蚀或裂缝的早期迹象，尽管新加坡通常不会出现此类问题。他强调，重要的是确保该链接的安全运行。
These could include early signs of corrosion or cracks caused by soil shifting around the area, though such problems would not typically be expected in Singapore, he said. What mattered was ensuring the link was safe to operate, he stressed.
“我绝对希望这个项目是安全的，而不是启动它，然后不得不中断服务进行整改工作，例如。”
“I would definitely want this project to be safe, rather than having it launched and then later on having to interrupt the service for rectification work, for example.”