洛(Ed Ludlow)9月中旬,华盛顿特区外,洛克希德·马丁公司(Lockheed Martin Corp.)揭开了一架未来派隐形无人机上的防水布:所有光滑的边缘、神秘的通风口,而且没有一片玻璃。
Washington DC in mid-September, Lockheed Martin Corp. lifted the tarp on a futuristic stealth drone: all sleek edges, mysterious vents and not a single pane of glass.
这是Vectis的首次全尺寸亮相,洛克希德公司首席执行官希望这款飞机将帮助重塑世界上最大的国防承包商。
It was the first full-size glimpse of Vectis, an aircraft Lockheed’s chief executive hopes will help reshape the world’s biggest defense contractor.
首席执行官吉姆·泰克莱(Jim Taiclet)在本周接受彭博电视台(Bloomberg Television)的延长采访时表示:“这可能是我们为美国及其盟友独立采取的最有价值的事情,以推进威慑。”他说,Vectis是一个“大赌注”,可以增加该公司的财富并提供新的军事能力。
“It’s probably the most valuable thing we can do independently for the US and our allies to advance deterrence,” CEO Jim Taiclet said in an extended Bloomberg Television interview that week. He says Vectis is the “big bet” that could boost the company’s fortunes and offer a new military capability.
这款无人机诞生于该公司秘密的臭鼬工厂内,比F-35喷气式飞机稍小。它专为多任务隐形而设计,反映了洛克希德公司对人工智能和自主性的重新关注。
The drone was born inside the company’s secretive Skunk Works, and is slightly smaller than an F-35 jet. Built for multimission stealth, it reflects Lockheed’s renewed focus on artificial intelligence and autonomy.
Vectis也是对Taiclet在快速变化的市场中重塑公司的更广泛努力的考验。洛克希德公司的业务是围绕F-35、导弹和卫星等大型项目建立的,但资金充足的初创公司正在赢得五角大楼的主要合同,重点是自主性、软件和速度。
Vectis is also a test of Taiclet’s broader effort to remake the company amid a rapidly changing market. Lockheed’s business was built around enormous programs like the F-35, missiles and satellites, but well-funded startups are winning major Pentagon contracts with a focus on autonomy, software and speed.
五角大楼内部的想法正在发生多大的变化,这一点在本周得到了极大的缓解,当时国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯说,他已经授权埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk),安杜里尔工业公司(Anduril Industries Inc.)该公司创始人帕尔默·勒基和前众议院议长纽特·金里奇将领导一项为期120天的工作,以确定军队的未来能力。
Just how much the thinking inside the Pentagon is changing was brought into sharp relief this week, when Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he’d mandated Elon Musk, Anduril Industries Inc. founder Palmer Luckey and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to lead a 120-day effort to identify future capabilities for the military.
洛克希德的飞机业务风险尤其高。F-35仍然是该公司的主要专营权,但竞争对手已经占领了五角大楼所有已知的下一代飞机项目:诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司赢得了B-21轰炸机,波音公司赢得了F-47和F/A-XX战斗机。
The stakes are particularly high for Lockheed’s aircraft business. The F-35 remains the company’s dominant franchise, but rivals have captured all of the Pentagon’s known marquee next-generation aircraft programs: Northrop Grumman Corp. won the B-21 bomber and Boeing Co. the F-47 and F/A-XX fighters.
泰克莱特表示,臭鼬工厂分部是U-2、SR-71和F-117等传奇战机的诞生地,是“最初的国防科技初创企业”。在研发Vectis的同时,他希望将这种文化推广至公司各处。
Taiclet says the Skunk Works division — the birthplace of fabled aircraft like the U-2, SR-71 and F-117 — is the “original defense technology startup” and wants to spread that culture across the company as it builds the Vectis.
“如果我们能把这一切做好,以合理成本完成研发,实现规模化生产,”他说,“并使其能够与其他有人驾驶飞机和舰船联通,那将成为改变游戏规则的突破。”这一领域已有许多类似设计,均被称为协同作战飞机;在美国空军举行的此类系统竞标中,洛克希德输给了安杜里尔和通用原子技术公司。Vectis可以参与下一轮竞争,但洛克希德称,其目标客户群涵盖更广泛的美国及国际客户。洛克希德拒绝透露该系统的单价,但美国空军的竞标目标约为每架2000万美元。
“If we can get that right, build it at a reasonable cost, scale the production,” he said, and connect to other crewed aircraft and ships, “that’s going to be the game changer.”The field is already crowded with similar designs, dubbed collaborative combat aircraft; Lockheed lost out in an Air Force competition for such a system to Anduril and General Atomics Technologies Corp. Vectis could compete in the next round, but Lockheed says it is aimed at a broader range of US and international customers. Lockheed declined to say what the unit cost would be, but the Air Force competition aimed for about $20 million per aircraft.
泰克莱特希望将洛克希德打造为全球领先的国防科技公司,把工业规模与初创企业、科技公司和竞争对手的技术结合起来。为加快转型,泰克莱特计划动用公司资金投入研发,甚至在五角大楼提出解决方案需求之前就提前开展,从而给予工程师更大的自由度。
Taiclet sayshe wants Lockheed to become the world’s leading defense technology company, combining industrial scale with technology from startups, tech companies and rivals. To accelerate the change, Taiclet plans to spend company money on research and development — even before the Pentagon has asked for a solution — which gives engineers greater freedom.
在没有生产合同或确定买家的情况下,洛克希德正在为五架Vectis原型机提供资金。首架原型机从设计到风洞测试仅用了两个月。
Lockheed is funding five Vectis prototypes without a production contract or committed buyer. The first prototype went from design to wind tunnel testing in just two months.
“现在不同之处在于,五角大楼现任领导层决定给企业松绑,”泰克莱特说,并让企业“保持灵活性,提出解决方案,制作原型,开展实地验证。”对于一家正受到华尔街质疑的公司而言,这是一场大胆的押注;在美国国防主承包商中,该公司的分析师评级最低。自泰克莱特于2020年6月上任以来,洛克希德股价上涨35%,在这一群体中排名第四,明显落后于同期标准普尔500指数150%的涨幅。
“What is different now is that the current leadership in the Pentagon has decided to take the straitjacket off the companies,” Taiclet said, allowing them “to be flexible, to propose solutions, to do prototypes, to go out in the field.”It’s a bold bet for a company facing doubts on Wall Street, including the lowest analyst rating among the US defense prime contractors. Lockheed’s 35% gain since Taiclet took charge in June 2020 ranks fourth among that group and significantly trails the S&P 500’s 150% surge in that span.
难点在于:由于增长较慢以及F-35面临一系列挑战,投资者在 valuing 洛克希德时给予了其相比同业更低的估值。
The challenge: Investors have discounted Lockheed against its peers because of slower growth and challenges around the F-35.
洛克希德还生产“爱国者”PAC-3拦截弹及其他关键军事系统。F-35贡献了公司超过四分之一的销售额,但该战机多年遭遇延期和成本上升,其预计采购成本自2023年底以来上涨约10%,达到5360亿美元。
Lockheed also makes the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor and other critical military systems. The F-35 accounts for more than a quarter of the company’s sales, but has suffered years of delays and cost increases, with its estimated acquisition bill rising about 10% since late 2023 to $536 billion.
泰克莱特表示,当前市场最大的变化是五角大楼愿意考虑业界提出的解决方案。这一转变也带来了风险。美国陆军驻欧洲和非洲高级战略官员凯文·马库斯上月在IISS布拉格防务峰会上表示,业界正在开发一些军方并无明确需求的能力。
Taiclet says the biggest change in the current market is the Pentagon’s willingness to consider industry-proposed solutions. That shift carries risks. Kevin Marcus, a senior strategy official with the US Army in Europe and Africa, said at the IISS Prague Defense Summit last month that industry is developing some capabilities the military has no clear need for.
“我坦白说,我担心私营部门有时会推动我们提出一些可能根本没有必要的要求,”马库斯说。
“I will tell you frankly, I am concerned that sometimes the private sector industry is driving us to have requirements that might not be required,” Marcus said.